What is wrong with Scott Kazmir?

[Villain]

By the numbers:

K% - Nope. It's right in line with career rate. 21.7% now versus 22.1% career.
BB% - Nope. 7.2%, which is better than his 9.4% career rate.
K-BB% - Nope (obviously)
BABIP - Ehhhhh still not the one! .305 now versus .299 career. A .300 BABIP is league average for all of baseball history.
WHIP - Crappy stat, but he's right where he's always been. 1.42 now versus 1.35 career.
HR/9 - Well there's your problem!!!! 2.17 now versus 1.01 career.

What does that mean? It could mean that hitters are just plain getting lucky. Everything else is where it always is except for one number, a regression to the mean should be expected where that home run rate will normalize and he'll stop giving up so many runs.

Let's go a little deeper.

Velocity:



Average Exit Velocity:

2015 ---> 87.6mph
2016 ---> 85.9mph

Okay, so on average he's not getting hit harder (in fact he's doing even better). His pitch velocity isn't abnormal.

So, if everything is "normal," then why the hell is he giving up more than twice as many home runs as usual?

 

[DHoey]

By the numbers:

K% - Nope. It's right in line with career rate. 21.7% now versus 22.1% career.
BB% - Nope. 7.2%, which is better than his 9.4% career rate.
K-BB% - Nope (obviously)
BABIP - Ehhhhh still not the one! .305 now versus .299 career. A .300 BABIP is league average for all of baseball history.
WHIP - Crappy stat, but he's right where he's always been. 1.42 now versus 1.35 career.
HR/9 - Well there's your problem!!!! 2.17 now versus 1.01 career.

What does that mean? It could mean that hitters are just plain getting lucky. Everything else is where it always is except for one number, a regression to the mean should be expected where that home run rate will normalize and he'll stop giving up so many runs.

Let's go a little deeper.

Velocity:

View attachment 116436

Average Exit Velocity:

2015 ---> 87.6mph
2016 ---> 85.9mph

Okay, so on average he's not getting hit harder (in fact he's doing even better). His pitch velocity isn't abnormal.

So, if everything is "normal," then why the hell is he giving up more than twice as many home runs as usual?

Because he's not pitching in Oakland

 

[Villain]

'Snakebit' Scott Kazmir remains confident, Dodgers continue to struggle at home

"It hasn't gone the way I wanted, that's for sure. But I'm really close to where I want to be," Kazmir said after the game. "I'm confident out there, I know exactly what I'm doing. It's just a matter of executing."


The mistakes on Monday included a fastball that caught too much of the plate for the first pitch of the game, a home run by Curtis Granderson; a hanging changeup to Kevin Plawecki for another home run in the second; and a first-pitch change to pitcher Steven Matz, who doubled in the sixth for an insurance run.


"The stuff, again, was really good. It just seems that every mistake he makes seems to go out of the ballpark," manager Dave Roberts said. "He's a little snakebit, but as far as stuff, it's just important for him to keep his confidence, because he is throwing the baseball well."

 

[OutlawImmortal]

'Snakebit' Scott Kazmir remains confident, Dodgers continue to struggle at home

"It hasn't gone the way I wanted, that's for sure. But I'm really close to where I want to be," Kazmir said after the game. "I'm confident out there, I know exactly what I'm doing. It's just a matter of executing."


The mistakes on Monday included a fastball that caught too much of the plate for the first pitch of the game, a home run by Curtis Granderson; a hanging changeup to Kevin Plawecki for another home run in the second; and a first-pitch change to pitcher Steven Matz, who doubled in the sixth for an insurance run.


"The stuff, again, was really good. It just seems that every mistake he makes seems to go out of the ballpark," manager Dave Roberts said. "He's a little snakebit, but as far as stuff, it's just important for him to keep his confidence, because he is throwing the baseball well."

It's natural for a contact pitcher who stays around the plate to throw a few meatballs up there. It's a combination of being unlucky and throwing it down the middle too often. Gotta reduce the number of meatballs in your spaghetti.

 

[Villain]

It's natural for a contact pitcher who stays around the plate to throw a few meatballs up there. It's a combination of being unlucky and throwing it down the middle too often. Gotta reduce the number of meatballs in your spaghetti.

So what do you think? Will the homers continue or should things even out? It seems like everything else besides his home run rate are right in line with his career numbers.

 

[Villain]

Scott Kazmir's average exit velocity is currently the 6th best in baseball.

 

[lasportzphan]

It's natural for a contact pitcher who stays around the plate to throw a few meatballs up there. It's a combination of being unlucky and throwing it down the middle too often. Gotta reduce the number of meatballs in your spaghetti.

Totally agree, even when in the strike one, he is not locating.

 

[lasportzphan]

Scott Kazmir's average exit velocity is currently the 6th best in baseball.

Great overview by the way.... If the numbers tell a story, one concludes he gets better (assuming there is it something physically wrong).

 

[LASports96]

Much better.....

 

[Villain]

Much better.....

Still got "snakebit" in the bottom of the 9th. I was glad Dave Roberts left him in though.