What is the future of Hisashi Iwakuma and the Mariners?

[seahawksfan234]

This is something that has not been discussed at all on this forum yet and it's something I thought should be mentioned.

As we get closer to the trade deadline this becomes increasingly relevant. I think it is safe to say we all want to see Hiashi Iwakuma retained (2.53 ERA in 53 MLB starts), but do the Mariners have the "budget space" for him?

I put budget space in quotation marks because we all know they can afford to keep him, but do the Mariners feel the same way?

There are a lot of different paths this could take. How do you all think this goes down? Does Iwakuma sign an extension at some point? Do we end up trading him at the trade deadline? Do we hold on to him to see him sign a contract with the Yankees in the offseason? How will this end?

And if we do re-sign Iwakuma, will that be the Mariners excuse for not spending any money during the offseason on offense? What kind of contract can Iwakuma expect? He's 33 and one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball right now.

A lot of questions.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Im not sure but I think there is a team option for him after this year for around what he is making now. Like 6-7 mil or something like that. If thats true I assume the option would be picked up. Regardless if he pitches well the rest of the year it might not be a bad idea to lock him up a few more years after next year. Despite being 33 he seems like the type of guy that will pitch well at an older age.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Im not sure but I think there is a team option for him after this year for around what he is making now. Like 6-7 mil or something like that. If thats true I assume the option would be picked up. Regardless if he pitches well the rest of the year it might not be a bad idea to lock him up a few more years after next year. Despite being 33 he seems like the type of guy that will pitch well at an older age.

Ah, you're right. I was unaware of that. Explains why there has not been more talk about his contract. My bad.

 

[mcnabb7542]

Ah, you're right. I was unaware of that. Explains why there has not been more talk about his contract. My bad.

But it does raise questions for the simple fact that he could be used as trade bait...I mean there is still missing pieces on this team, and there is youth at the starting pitching, so could they use him to get that SS or hard hitting OF?

 

[SeattleCoug]

I agree with you both. It is definitely something that is fair to bring up. Getting him to sign that extension after 2012 is looking like one of the best bargains and probably Jack Z's best move.

Not sure how much stock you guys put into Lookout Landing but he wrote a pretty interesting piece today on it.

Considering Hisashi Iwakuma's future in Seattle - Lookout Landing

 

[mcnabb7542]

I agree with you both. It is definitely something that is fair to bring up. Getting him to sign that extension after 2012 is looking like one of the best bargains and probably Jack Z's best move.

Not sure how much stock you guys put into Lookout Landing but he wrote a pretty interesting piece today on it.

Considering Hisashi Iwakuma's future in Seattle - Lookout Landing

It's a good read man, here's what I would do:

I ride the contract out, make him pitch to earn his next payday. Not trying to be a dick about it, but the guy does get hurt, let him pitch himself into a payday, but I'm also gonna hear out other teams for trade deadlines, if I can a postion player that has upside and youth then I'm gonna deal him. With Paxton and Walker looking like there ready for the rotation, then I have my top three locked and loaded, priority shifts to a SS and one or two outfielders that can hit with power

 

[Logicallylethal]

I want to keep Iwakuma on our team. He's getting up there in age, but he's not a hard thrower so while his fastball may diminish his control and the movement on his pitches should still be elite even as he ages.

 

[Thisnamewasntaken]

I think he should be traded in a package before something happens and we lose all value. We got lucky signing him and getting this production out of him but I think we should listen to offers for sure.

 

[seattlefan75]

I think we should sign him I think he prefers to play in seattle im sure he came to the united states to see what its like to pitch in the best baseball league in the world and get paid i dont think a world series ring is on his priority list

 

[seahawksfan234]

I agree with you both. It is definitely something that is fair to bring up. Getting him to sign that extension after 2012 is looking like one of the best bargains and probably Jack Z's best move.

Not sure how much stock you guys put into Lookout Landing but he wrote a pretty interesting piece today on it.

Considering Hisashi Iwakuma's future in Seattle - Lookout Landing

Pretty interesting that they posted that not long after I posted this thread. Perhaps they monitor the Hoop and figured it was a good topic to write an article about.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Personally I'd prefer to re-sign Iwakuma assuming he keeps pitching this way. He has had a better ERA than Felix during his time here and looks to only be getting better. We have seen what the Mariners receive in return for their valuable trade chips, I say hold on to Iwakuma and continue to build around what the Mariners currently have.

 

[johnfree63]

I don't want Jack Z anywhere near a Iwakuma trade. He'll never get Iwakuma's full trade value.

 

[NWinAZ]

I don't want Jack Z anywhere near a Iwakuma trade. He'll never get Iwakuma's full trade value.

Sadly that has to be a part of the discussion. IF we had real GM, say one from the Cards, I would deal him for a legit RH OF. I mean legit. No Fister deals where you get 5 crappy players for one stud pitcher. The Vargas for Morales deal would be the kind of deal I would want but at a better return since Kuma is better than Vargas of course. My reasoning for dealing him is simple because we can't sign free agent hitters w/o paying $240M to get them so trade for hitters and sign pitchers which should be easier since we are a pitchers ballpark.

 

[johnfree63]

Sadly that has to be a part of the discussion. IF we had real GM, say one from the Cards, I would deal him for a legit RH OF. I mean legit. No Fister deals where you get 5 crappy players for one stud pitcher. The Vargas for Morales deal would be the kind of deal I would want but at a better return since Kuma is better than Vargas of course. My reasoning for dealing him is simple because we can't sign free agent hitters w/o paying $240M to get them so trade for hitters and sign pitchers which should be easier since we are a pitchers ballpark.

I completely agree with your hypothetical. If I trusted the GM and Front Office at all, I'd have no problem trading Kuma.

 

[cezero]

M's will have to give up pitching if they want to trade for anything of value.

If Paxton and Walker (and maybe even Hultzen next year) prove themselves over the next year or so, then I'm all for trading Kuma at the trade deadline next season.

...except, as others in here have said, Z (or any of the yes men they might hire if he gets fired) will completely fuck it up.

Kobayashi Maru ever after for this organization until Nintendo sells.

 

[wazzu31]

Sadly that has to be a part of the discussion. IF we had real GM, say one from the Cards, I would deal him for a legit RH OF. I mean legit. No Fister deals where you get 5 crappy players for one stud pitcher. The Vargas for Morales deal would be the kind of deal I would want but at a better return since Kuma is better than Vargas of course. My reasoning for dealing him is simple because we can't sign free agent hitters w/o paying $240M to get them so trade for hitters and sign pitchers which should be easier since we are a pitchers ballpark.

I have no numbers to back it up but it does seem that Japanese pitchers have a short shelf life. I think there is a future for him on the club but seriously thinking about dealing him is not a bad idea (though like Zona said, we have the wrong guy in charge to make any deal)

And even if the organization wasn't cheap it seems rather difficult to think they would sink that much of payroll into 2 starting pitchers. With Felix, Kuma and Cano they would need to raise the payroll to around $150 to reach the playoffs with all the youngsters contracts about to up.

 

[RegentDenali]

Why the hell would we trade him? He's absolutely money in the #2 of this rotation, and you can see how noticeably less we were struggling once we got him back. These guys do not grow on trees.

SIGN HIM TO A NEW DEAL. KEEP HIM!!!!

 

[cezero]

The team needs offensive talent. Having 5 Felix Hernandezes in the rotation can't make up for an offense in the bottom 3 of just about every AL offensive stat.

The M's can't develop offensive talent, and they won't purchase quality free agents that can supplement the $50 mill they spend per season on Cano and Felix.

That pretty much exhausts 2 of the 3 avenues of building a contending team...the remaining option being strategic trades.

You will not find a perenially contending team that doesn't use all 3 of those avenues effectively. The's M's use none of them effectively, which is the only reason I'd be against whoever our idiot GM is trying to trade some quality pitching for a desperately needed bat...hopefully an outfielder. You have to give up quality to get quality, and we all know that Z is terrible at judging it.

 

[seahawksfan234]

That's exactly why I wouldn't want Iwakuma to be traded. Every pitcher the Mariners have traded (with the exception of Vargas) has ended up being a shit deal.

Michael Pineda? Jesus Montero
Cliff Lee? Justin Smoak
Doug Fister? Casper Wells...?
Erik Bedard? Travyon Robinson and a player no longer on the team.
Jarrod Washburn? Luke French and Mauricio Robles.

Despite not being a top tier talent, Washburn had a 2.64 ERA in 20 starts for the Mariners before being shipped to the Tigers. Bedard had a 3.45 ERA in 16 starts.

Trader Z has been swindled quite a few times.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I have no numbers to back it up but it does seem that Japanese pitchers have a short shelf life. I think there is a future for him on the club but seriously thinking about dealing him is not a bad idea (though like Zona said, we have the wrong guy in charge to make any deal)

And even if the organization wasn't cheap it seems rather difficult to think they would sink that much of payroll into 2 starting pitchers. With Felix, Kuma and Cano they would need to raise the payroll to around $150 to reach the playoffs with all the youngsters contracts about to up.

Here are some Japanese pitchers off of the top of my head who had success and lasted a while:
Hideo Nomo: Age: 26-34. 3.85 ERA during that span in 1787 innings. He started declining at age 35. From 35 on he had a 7.95 ERA in his remaining 3 seasons in MLB.
Hiroki Kuroda: Age: 33-39. 3.46 ERA during his 1179 innings. Pretty similar pitcher to Iwakuma IMO, currently is 39 and has a 4.55 ERA in 10 starts for the Yankees this year.

It is difficult to measure the shelf life of successful Japanese starting pitchers. I don't think MLB has ever seen Japanese pitchers as successful as Iwakuma, Tanaka or Darvish. I can't think of any Japanese starting pitchers who have been more successful than those two. It could appear that Japanese pitchers have short shelf lives because a lot of them don't reach MLB until they have established themselves in Japan, which can take some time. Darvish, Tanaka and Iwakuma are really breaking new ground for Japanese starting pitchers, even at their best, Nomo and Kuroda were never as good as any of those three.

I would argue that in Iwakuma's 54 MLB starts (2.63 ERA) he has been better than Darvish's 70 MLB starts (3.21 ERA), but you won't hear that from ESPN because Darvish is a much more exciting pitcher to watch and has the ridiculous amount of strikeouts.