What do site Projections say?

[averagejoe]

I wanted to compare a fantasy site's player projections to see if the there was a vast difference between a player's rankings and his projections.
As you can imagine, the projections were fairly in line with the rankings. And that makes sense, right? If ESPN is ranking Aaron Jones as the 12th RB off the boards, it should not be a big shock that his projections are the 12th-best among other RB projections.

But what about teams?

So I totaled up the RB projections for each team.
I used Fantasy Pros' expert projections. If you have not viewed them, they take 5 source projections (including ESPN, CBS and the NFL.com site) to average a player's projected touches, yards and TD.

As you can see by the tally chart below, the team projection for the RB does not necessarily line-up with last season's team rushing rankings (in the last column).

As a disclaimer, the team rankings do include ALL rushing attempts which may include a QB that scrambles, etc. Plus it is worth noting that the RB projections also include receiving stats.

Yet even with that, there are some sharp contrasts. (i.e. BAL, PIT and BUF just to name a few).
I personally never trusted projections.

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[averagejoe]

@HaroldSeattle or @SteelersPride
Can 1 of you edit the title to "Projections" ?

 

[HaroldSeattle]

@HaroldSeattle or @SteelersPride
Can 1 of you edit the title to "Projections" ?

Done.

 

[averagejoe]

Forgot to add that the 3rd column is the total projection of FANTASY POINTS of all RB on the team.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I don't see how they are projecting the Patriots as #2 in offense. That's got to be off the past not the present roster.

 

[SteelersPride]

@HaroldSeattle or @SteelersPride
Can 1 of you edit the title to "Projections" ?

I'm not a mod. Thats @HaroldSeattle department ! looks like he got yah though

@HaroldSeattle i dont think its #1 offense, its #2 total points by RB's on the roster.

 

[leftypower]

Like you guys - I'm not drinking that cool-aid. ...

 

[averagejoe]

I don't see how they are projecting the Patriots as #2 in offense. That's got to be off the past not the present roster.

Maybe i need to clarify...
Column 3 is the total projected 2020 fantasy points of all the RB for that team.
The rank in column 1 reflects the totals in column 3.

I understand that the RB fantasy points are not necessarily a true representation of the rushing offense. But with that caviat, the last column lists the rushing (only) offense rank from last season.

I thought it was an interesting comparison since fantasy expert sites are trying to justify their rankings by providing projections as well.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Patriots are so high simply because they dont know who will be the number one RB... so they have more RBs projected for a certain amount of touches than any other team...

Ravens are projected so low, because the QB forces the projections for the other RBs to be lower than most committees....

The team that surprises me to be so low is the rams, they are seen to be a committee... so you would think multiple backs should be projected highly... But i think everyone is already under the assumption that cam Akers is going to dominate the touches...

and i am surprised that the panthers are so high, but i guess that is because McCaffrey is so good...