Updated Bracketology 2.23.16

[CatsTopPac]

They don't have any quality wins according to KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin though either.

No shit! If they don't have any quality wins then they don't have any quality wins. But RPI bases a lot on quality wins through SOS. We have gone over this. Although they don't have any quality wins, it's not weighted as much in the other ratings. There are more factors than just quality wins, which is RPI (essentially wins against the field and SOS). Those are the two most weighed factors in RPI. They are weighed little in the other ratings in leu of things like injuries, MOV, bad wins and bad losses, possessions stats, offensive and defensive efficiency, etc. RPI focusing so much on quality wins and SOS is why they have a low RPI. But the other ratings include various other factors in each of their metrics (like the ones I listed above) where AZ is much better, hence the higher ratings.

 

[dcZONAfan]

We really need a win @Utah, for both resume and confidence. Because we have no business being a top 4 or even 5 seed since we have missed all of our chances at getting big wins (or most, at least). That can change with a huge road win, a home sweep, and a deep run in the PAC tourney. But those are all HUGE IFs with this team right now.

 

[CatsTopPac]

We really need a win @Utah, for both resume and confidence. Because we have no business being a top 4 or even 5 seed since we have missed all of our chances at getting big wins (or most, at least). That can change with a huge road win, a home sweep, and a deep run in the PAC tourney. But those are all HUGE IFs with this team right now.

I agree with most of that. If we lose tomorrow then we should at least switch with Utah (them a 4 seed and us a 5, in Lunardi's bracket anyway). I still won't be too discouraged moving forward, if it's within a bucket to a solid team, and we just got beat by a better effort on the road. Utah and Colorado only have one loss at home, so I can live with that. If we are losing to these teams by a bucket in such a harsh environment, it sucks, but I see those as wins on a neutral court. Now, if we don't make a run in Vegas, where it is neutral, then I'll be worried. And if we don't sweep next week against NorCal then we are really fucked.

But overall, yes. We had a lot of momentum going since the loss to Oregon, and a mountain sweep is going to definitely drag going into March.

 

[navamind]

What is wrong with Dayton?

 

[SteelersPride]

NCAA Tournament Bracketology

crazy that Zoina # 9 in the rankings, is pegged as a 6 seed

 

[ericd7633]

NCAA Tournament Bracketology

crazy that Zoina # 9 in the rankings, is pegged as a 6 seed

I personally don't think so. Really the only one that does is the one AZ fan in this thread.

 

[SteelersPride]

I personally don't think so. Really the only one that does is the one AZ fan in this thread.

if your nationally in the polls at #9, and a 6 seed, theres something wrong with the rankings

 

[ericd7633]

if your nationally in the polls at #9, and a 6 seed, theres something wrong with the rankings

There was something wrong with the polls. They were ranked there based on name alone. Certainly not based on what they've accomplished(no top 25 wins).

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Yesterday was a big day for BE.

Looking really good to get 5 Bids now.

4 is basically a lock.

 

[ericd7633]

Yesterday was a big day for BE.

Looking really good to get 5 Bids now.

4 is basically a lock.

3 locks right now. Providence really needs to go undefeated the last 2 games IMO. Even a 1-1 finish, given their schedule will need them to do damage in the BET IMO. If Butler goes 2-0 they should be alright.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

3 locks right now. Providence really needs to go undefeated the last 2 games IMO. Even a 1-1 finish, given their schedule will need them to do damage in the BET IMO. If Butler goes 2-0 they should be alright.

Providence isn't getting left out at 9-9. Even though I've said they are overrated as fuck. Win that SJU game and they are in.

Butler would be best served to snag 2 more wins in some conpacity but could be fine with 1 because of how awful things are.

There is a better chance the league gets 6 than 3.

 

[ericd7633]

Providence isn't getting left out at 9-9. Even though I've said they are overrated as fuck. Win that SJU game and they are in.

Butler would be best served to snag 2 more wins in some conpacity but could be fine with 1 because of how awful things are.

There is a better chance the league gets 6 than 3.

Hypothetically if Providence loses to Creighton at home and beats SJU on the road this will be their resume:

W/L: 21-10
RPI: 61
SOS: 65
Non. Conf. SOS: 232
Vs. Top 50: 2-6

Then they lose their first game in the BET? Hypothetically, let's say they are the #6 seed, and lose to Seton Hall:

W/L: 21-11
RPI: 63
SOS: 63
Vs. Top 50: 2-7

That's why I think it's pretty critical they finish 2-0. Which saying all of this, I do think they go 2-0. Without that win over Nova, I think they'd be reduced to having to win the BET, which is crazy.

 

[CatsTopPac]

if your nationally in the polls at #9, and a 6 seed, theres something wrong with the rankings

I personally don't think so. Really the only one that does is the one AZ fan in this thread.

You personally don't think so? You said that you personally thought they were underseeded at 5.

For the 50th time, AZ was ranked #9 last Monday, back when they were also top 10 in Sagarin, BPI, and Kenpom. They were also still a 6 seed in that bracket while being top 10 in everything else but RPI, in which they were #25. They were a 6 seed because CBS was going off of RPI (SOS).

And AZ wasn't ranked in the top ten because of their name. They moved up after winning 5 in a row while teams ahead of them lost. That's how rankings work.

Oh, and Iowa is a #4 seed and ranked #8. Oh the humanity!!!!

 

[ericd7633]

You personally don't think so? You said that you personally thought they were underseeded at 5.

For the 50th time, AZ was ranked #9 last Monday, back when they were also top 10 in Sagarin, BPI, and Kenpom. They were also still a 6 seed in that bracket while being top 10 in everything else but RPI, in which they were #25. They were a 6 seed because CBS was going off of RPI (SOS).

And AZ wasn't ranked in the top ten because of their name. They moved up after winning 5 in a row while teams ahead of them lost. That's how rankings work.

Oh, and Iowa is a #4 seed and ranked #8. Oh the humanity!!!!

Yes, going into their two games last week, I thought 5 was under seeding them based on how good I thought they actually were. But based on their resume, which isn't any good their seed was going to suffer.

Arizona is now 2-6 against NCAA caliber teams. Sorry if I don't think that qualifies them to be a 3/4 seed at the moment.

And Iowa isn't gonna be top 10 when the rankings come out.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Yes, going into their two games last week, I thought 5 was under seeding them based on how good I thought they actually were. But based on their resume, which isn't any good their seed was going to suffer.

Arizona is now 2-6 against NCAA caliber teams. Sorry if I don't think that qualifies them to be a 3/4 seed at the moment.

And Iowa isn't gonna be top 10 when the rankings come out.

And neither is AZ when the polls come out, but that didn't stop the comparison did it? And despite losing both of their games this weekend, AZ is still a 6 seed in the CBS bracket, and their RPI only fell by 4.

 

[ericd7633]

And neither is AZ when the polls come out, but that didn't stop the comparison did it? And despite losing both of their games this weekend, AZ is still a 6 seed in the CBS bracket, and their RPI only fell by 4.

Which is exactly where I would have them.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Which is exactly where I would have them.

I can see that. I personally have them as a 5, but 6 is fair.

 

[ericd7633]

I can see that. I personally have them as a 5, but 6 is fair.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2016

 

[CatsTopPac]

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2016

Thanks for the link. Lot's of parity there (AZ being from a 3-8). Looks about right though.

 

[ericd7633]

Thanks for the link. Lot's of parity there (AZ being from a 3-8). Looks about right though.

Some of them project out, which is why AZ is the 3 line in a couple of them, which could happen if they win out. Just FYI.