Updated Bracketology 2.23.16

[CatsTopPac]

Arizona has TWO wins vs. the field, and one of them is extremely on the bubble(Oregon State). Arizona is the ONLY team in the top 25 to not have beaten a single team in the RPI top 25, KenPom top 25, BPI top 25 and Sagarin top 25. Arizona is 9-3 with their full roster. Also I've never heard the committee reference MOV, so it doesn't even matter how ugly the losses are, or how good the wins look.

The reason why Arizona has 3/4 seed efficiency numbers is because they are really, really good against NIT teams. Which doesn't mean anything to me.

That's part of BPI, which the committee officially takes into consideration.

Again, for the 50th time; I understand that AZ has a weak SOS, and a weak record against the field. But there are far more measures that you are simply not taking into consideration, that the committee, through the other ratings, consider. Again, despite all of the facts that you just posted, why then do BPI, Sagarin, and KenPom all have AZ in the top 15? Is it because the their ratings and considerations all just so happen to be complete bullshit, or does it force us to look at how all of these other ratings have AZ in the top 15, and RPI (with those 3 metrics you use above) may be incomplete? You take RPI, which is one rating which would put us as a 7 seed, and then consider the other 3+ rating systems, and move them down up to seeds. I look at the 3+ ratings that all have AZ in the top 15 which would have AZ as (now) a 3-4 seed, and consider what the last rating (which is an outlier to the others), and maybe move them (now) to a solid 4 seed. That's all I'm saying. There are factors like MOV, injuries, bad losses, questionable wins, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, fg%, points per possession, rebounding %, etc. that all matter when seeding. All of these matter. The committee doesn't look at each, but they look at the ratings that incorporate these, like RPI does with SOS. Don't you think the committee is going to say "Yes, AZ has a weak SOS, and record against the field, but why do all of these other ratings besides RPI have them ranked so high? Let's look at that." Of course. They are going to say the same thing about Oregon being the opposite. Then they will weigh them accordingly. The committee officially looks at all of those ratings. When they see the disparity between RPI and all the others, they are going to unpack it and see what every rating other than RPI has AZ in the top 15, and every other rating doesn't have Oregon there. They will take all of that into consideration.

 

[ericd7633]

That's part of BPI, which the committee officially takes into consideration.

Again, for the 50th time; I understand that AZ has a weak SOS, and a weak record against the field. But there are far more measures that you are simply not taking into consideration, that the committee, through the other ratings, consider. Again, despite all of the facts that you just posted, why then do BPI, Sagarin, and KenPom all have AZ in the top 15? Is it because the their ratings and considerations all just so happen to be complete bullshit, or does it force us to look at how all of these other ratings have AZ in the top 15, and RPI (with those 3 metrics you use above) may be incomplete? You take RPI, which is one rating which would put us as a 7 seed, and then consider the other 3+ rating systems, and move them down up to seeds. I look at the 3+ ratings that all have AZ in the top 15 which would have AZ as (now) a 3-4 seed, and consider what the last rating (which is an outlier to the others), and maybe move them (now) to a solid 4 seed. That's all I'm saying. There are factors like MOV, injuries, bad losses, questionable wins, offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, fg%, points per possession, rebounding %, etc. that all matter when seeding. All of these matter. The committee doesn't look at each, but they look at the ratings that incorporate these, like RPI does with SOS. Don't you think the committee is going to say "Yes, AZ has a weak SOS, and record against the field, but why do all of these other ratings besides RPI have them ranked so high? Let's look at that." Of course. They are going to say the same thing about Oregon being the opposite. Then they will weigh them accordingly. The committee officially looks at all of those ratings. When they see the disparity between RPI and all the others, they are going to unpack it and see what every rating other than RPI has AZ in the top 15, and every other rating doesn't have Oregon there. They will take all of that into consideration.

I just told you why those other metrics have AZ higher than the RPI. They've played really good against NIT type of teams. Hell, they don't even have a top 25 BPI against top 50 teams. And they don't get blown out. Good luck to your wildcats on selection Sunday. And don't be surprised when they aren't seeded where BPI, KenPom and Sagarin suggest they should. AZ was 2 in KenPom, 3 in BPI and 4 in Sagarin last year, but 6 in RPI, and they were a 2 seed.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I just told you why those other metrics have AZ higher than the RPI. They've played really good against NIT type of teams. Hell, they don't even have a top 25 BPI against top 50 teams. And they don't get blown out. Good luck to your wildcats on selection Sunday. And don't be surprised when they aren't seeded where BPI, KenPom and Sagarin suggest they should. AZ was 2 in KenPom, 3 in BPI and 4 in Sagarin last year, but 6 in RPI, and they were a 2 seed.

And Oregon is losing to some of those NIT teams on the road and barely beating them at home.

But again, for AZ last year, those are all pretty close to each other. There were widely agreed upon to be 5 #1 seeds and someone had to be #2. AZ was the best #2 seed which puts them at 5th, in between 2,3,4, and 6. All of those are within 5 spots. Look at Oklahoma last year which was 13 in both BPI and Kenpom, 16 in Sagarin, and 18 in RPI. They got a 3 seed. RPI was the farthest away from their the others, and they got a seed even better than those ratings.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Man, this is really going on a long time.

Oregon has 9 top 50 wins and beat Zona head to head. I think it's pretty clear why they are solidly above Zona considering those facts along with RPI and SOS

But who cares? It's Ericd's projection. We will see who is right in a couple weeks.

Zona lost last night as well. They truly probably are a 4/5 right now. I think all those teams are interchangeable so who knows who gets seeded where at this point.

 

[ericd7633]

And Oregon is losing to some of those NIT teams on the road and barely beating them at home.

But again, for AZ last year, those are all pretty close to each other. There were widely agreed upon to be 5 #1 seeds and someone had to be #2. AZ was the best #2 seed which puts them at 5th, in between 2,3,4, and 6. All of those are within 5 spots. Look at Oklahoma last year which was 13 in both BPI and Kenpom, 16 in Sagarin, and 18 in RPI. They got a 3 seed. RPI was the farthest away from their the others, and they got a seed even better than those ratings.

Who should I drop for AZ to be a 4 then?

 

[CatsTopPac]

Who should I drop for AZ to be a 4 then?

I don't know. Like I said, I don't pay too close attention to these right now. I was just interested because of where I saw AZ. If today were Selection Sunday, I'd probably switch AZ with ISU. They are #22 Sagarin, #18 in RPI, and #17 in BPI and Kenpom. They look like a solid 5 to me, but I haven't looked at each team to compare them all to each other using all of the different ratings.

Really, do whatever you want. I just think that if the committee uses all of the ratings, then it would be more accurate for them all to be considered for these brackets.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

ISU beat Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Texas

 

[rmilia1]

As it stands today Arizona is closer to a 6 seed than they are a 4 seed

 

[ericd7633]

I don't know. Like I said, I don't pay too close attention to these right now. I was just interested because of where I saw AZ. If today were Selection Sunday, I'd probably switch AZ with ISU. They are #22 Sagarin, #18 in RPI, and #17 in BPI and Kenpom. They look like a solid 5 to me, but I haven't looked at each team to compare them all to each other using all of the different ratings.

Really, do whatever you want. I just think that if the committee uses all of the ratings, then it would be more accurate for them all to be considered for these brackets.

ISU is tied for 3rd in the country with 5 top 25 wins though. And actually accomplished something OOC.

 

[Texas Jefe]

ISU beat Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa and Texas

that is a healthy resume

 

[CatsTopPac]

ISU is tied for 3rd in the country with 5 top 25 wins though. And actually accomplished something OOC.

Like I said, I'm not trying to look at every team and make a bracket. AZ just caught my eye as a 5 seed. I looked at your other 4 seeds and then took a glance at their other ratings. How about this, Lunardi has Utah as a 5 seed, AZ as a 4, and Oregon as a 3 seed. That looks much better.

As it stands today Arizona is closer to a 6 seed than they are a 4 seed

You didn't even know that the committee looks at something besides RPI, so forgive my little faith in your seeding abilities.

 

[jontaejones]

Providence or Seton Hall?

Uh. I change my vote to Seton Hall...

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Uh. I change my vote to Seton Hall...

Lol as I said, easily the 3rd best team in the league.

 

[rmilia1]

Like I said, I'm not trying to look at every team and make a bracket. AZ just caught my eye as a 5 seed. I looked at your other 4 seeds and then took a glance at their other ratings. How about this, Lunardi has Utah as a 5 seed, AZ as a 4, and Oregon as a 3 seed. That looks much better.



You didn't even know that the committee looks at something besides RPI, so forgive my little faith in your seeding abilities.

I'm sure the individual committee members can look at whatever they'd like. The reality is if you just look at resumes Arizona probably has the 19th or 20th best resume. Best case scenario. There really isn't a viable way to have them much higher than that. A 4 seed is too high imo but I suppose if you had them 16th on your S curve I could live with that. The truth is the spread between a 3 seed and a 6 or 7 seed this year isn't much

 

[CatsTopPac]

I'm sure the individual committee members can look at whatever they'd like. The reality is if you just look at resumes Arizona probably has the 19th or 20th best resume. Best case scenario. There really isn't a viable way to have them much higher than that. A 4 seed is too high imo but I suppose if you had them 16th on your S curve I could live with that. The truth is the spread between a 3 seed and a 6 or 7 seed this year isn't much

AZ's resumes say that they are #28 in RPI (due to a weak SOS and record vs the field), #9 in BPI (due to no bad road losses or questionable home wins), #12 in Sagarin (due to MOV, and whatever chess prediction voodoo he has) and #14 in Kenpom (due to possession statistics and offensive/defensive efficiency). And the committee looks at all of it. Just weighing them equally (which is probably give or take with anyone in the committee), puts them at an average of 15.75. So I'm also fine with them being 15 or 16. So I think we agree.

I definitely agree with you that the top 12 are all interchangeable, and the next 12 are also pretty similar.

 

[ericd7633]

AZ's resumes say that they are #28 in RPI (due to a weak SOS and record vs the field), #9 in BPI (due to no bad road losses or questionable home wins), #12 in Sagarin (due to MOV, and whatever chess prediction voodoo he has) and #14 in Kenpom (due to possession statistics and offensive/defensive efficiency). And the committee looks at all of it. Just weighing them equally (which is probably give or take with anyone in the committee), puts them at an average of 15.75. So I'm also fine with them being 15 or 16. So I think we agree.

I definitely agree with you that the top 12 are all interchangeable, and the next 12 are also pretty similar.

The committee also looks at quality wins, which Arizona lacks more than any team being discussed.

 

[The Q]

Still UConn/Providence....love it.

 

[ericd7633]

Still UConn/Providence....love it.

If Providence doesn't go 3-0 in their final 3 games, I don't think they'll even make it, barring a run to the BET championship.

 

[CatsTopPac]

The committee also looks at quality wins, which Arizona lacks more than any team being discussed.

Those are essentially wins against the field, which I outlined as part of RPI.

 

[ericd7633]

Those are essentially wins against the field, which I outlined as part of RPI.

They don't have any quality wins according to KenPom, BPI, and Sagarin though either.