Trouble in Paradise - Bates

[Cincyfan78]

Could also be a case where now that the defense is better all-around, teams are testing him more - where as he has been able to live large on a largely bad defense where he could make a few plays, and then teams would take advantage of other areas. Now that those areas are better...he's seeing more, and doing less.

 

[alf8478]

If Bates was the top safety he wouldn't have gotten tackled at the 1 yard line on Sunday.

 

[cincygrad]

If you scroll through that thread, they show that Bates stats across all of his seasons are very inconsistent.

My thinking with Bates is that he is one of our best defensive players, he is a team captain and he is one of the 10 best at his position in the league.

I have no idea how these things are judged, but its hard for me to believe that he is the best safety in the league and I'm sure that is the deal his agent is looking to cut.

I'd franchise him next year - If his reps don't come down in cost, I'd move on after the 2022 season.

 

[cincygrad]

The defense has some great young leadership. Hubbard and Henrickson on the line. Logan Wilson at linebacker. Mike Hilton is locked up for 4 years. Awuzie for three years. I'm not overly concerned about the leadership vacuum if things break down with Bates.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Could also be a case where now that the defense is better all-around, teams are testing him more - where as he has been able to live large on a largely bad defense where he could make a few plays, and then teams would take advantage of other areas. Now that those areas are better...he's seeing more, and doing less.

Pretty sure PFF grades players based on their assignments and quality of execution on that assignment. So if he is not being tested, it just means he has less data points on his chart, which could skew his grade considerably either way. However, his grading chart has been on a steady incline over the previous 3 years. It is this year he is not playing as well, and there is one huge difference in last year versus this year, and that is a contract issue. He thought he would be next, he hasn't got it. Maybe his self esteem took a little bit of a hit. No idea what is causing his issues, but he hasn't looked quite the same.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Pretty sure PFF grades players based on their assignments and quality of execution on that assignment. So if he is not being tested, it just means he has less data points on his chart, which could skew his grade considerably either way. However, his grading chart has been on a steady incline over the previous 3 years. It is this year he is not playing as well, and there is one huge difference in last year versus this year, and that is a contract issue. He thought he would be next, he hasn't got it. Maybe his self esteem took a little bit of a hit. No idea what is causing his issues, but he hasn't looked quite the same.

I really like PFF - but I take their grades with a pinch of salt, since they can only guess what the actual assignment is supposed to be. Though, in general I like their grading.

You hit on my point, though - he may have graded out well as he made plays, but had fewer opportunities. That means, if he had done worse, his grade would have been way worse, but he did well, so his grade may have been overly inflated. I don't know the data points in terms of potential graded plays this year vs the past - but if the rest of the defense was garbage for 2 years (and it was) and he was doing "OK" at the time (and he was) it makes sense that he was able to accel in those limited opportunities and then teams decided to just go to an easier target.

I would still re-sign him, but I would not break the bank on him. He's been very good, but I think this year does raise some questions at least. Offer him a fair deal with a chance maybe to opt out sooner and hit the market if he does well. Gives the team time to draft/sign some younger depth and work them in - and basically kick the can down the road for a few years. Or tag him - but you run the risk of irking him and causing a bigger distraction.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I really like PFF - but I take their grades with a pinch of salt, since they can only guess what the actual assignment is supposed to be. Though, in general I like their grading.

You hit on my point, though - he may have graded out well as he made plays, but had fewer opportunities. That means, if he had done worse, his grade would have been way worse, but he did well, so his grade may have been overly inflated. I don't know the data points in terms of potential graded plays this year vs the past - but if the rest of the defense was garbage for 2 years (and it was) and he was doing "OK" at the time (and he was) it makes sense that he was able to accel in those limited opportunities and then teams decided to just go to an easier target.

I would still re-sign him, but I would not break the bank on him. He's been very good, but I think this year does raise some questions at least. Offer him a fair deal with a chance maybe to opt out sooner and hit the market if he does well. Gives the team time to draft/sign some younger depth and work them in - and basically kick the can down the road for a few years. Or tag him - but you run the risk of irking him and causing a bigger distraction.

He is still a young man. If you at least sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, gives us a little more time, and allows him to set his price tag for free agency when he is still in the prime of his career. Then, if he is proving to be a stud, we can make an offer but he would be able to take the best deal in open free agency.

 

[Cincyfan78]

He is still a young man. If you at least sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal, gives us a little more time, and allows him to set his price tag for free agency when he is still in the prime of his career. Then, if he is proving to be a stud, we can make an offer but he would be able to take the best deal in open free agency.

Agreed. The cap is going to jump this coming year, but the following year, and there after, it is expected to explode.

If he wants to bet on himself - sign a 3 year deal with some kind of opt-out. He can get paid as a top 5-8 Safety for 2 years, and then if his metrics improve, he can opt out (no tag allowed) and hit the F/A market at a time where the cap is expected to start rising by nearly 20MM a year, and that's been on the conservative side.

 

[cincygrad]

Here's the issue.... I don't think his agents are interested in making a fair deal. Though the Bengals are often called cheap, their organization has had a lot of success signing guys the year before they become a free agent. The deals have never been the blockbuster type that comes with FA (which are mostly bullshit because only the first year or two is guaranteed), but solid deals that put the player among the top performers at their position. My assumption all along is that they made this type of deal to Bates, and his agents have declined. I think they are asking for him to be the top paid safety and won't budge off that issue.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Here's the issue.... I don't think his agents are interested in making a fair deal. Though the Bengals are often called cheap, their organization has had a lot of success signing guys the year before they become a free agent. The deals have never been the blockbuster type that comes with FA (which are mostly bullshit because only the first year or two is guaranteed), but solid deals that put the player among the top performers at their position. My assumption all along is that they made this type of deal to Bates, and his agents have declined. I think they are asking for him to be the top paid safety and won't budge off that issue.

Agreed.

The one thing with the Bengals, though, the player usually sees the majority of the deal. They may make "less" in total contractual money, but they will see most of that money - meaning they actually make more than some of those other deals where that money on the back-end is rarely ever actualized.