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The 2013 NFL draft is now less than a month away, and draft boards around the NFL are coming into clearer focus.
Free agency and trades have filled many needs and opened holes elsewhere. Meanwhile, the draft process has solidified the status of some top draft prospects, while questions have been raised about others.
The evaluation process is still ongoing, with players still visiting team facilities for interviews and private workouts, but at this point we're getting a better feel for how the early rounds might play out.
Below is my latest mock draft, which this time around has been extended to two rounds. Plenty can change between now and April 25, but based on extensive film study and conversations with people across the league this is my best projection of how the first 60-plus picks might play out.
There's a change at No. 1 from my last mock draft, and a quarterback has broken into the top three overall. Elsewhere, linemen continue to dominate the top 10, and plenty of quality prospects are there for the taking in the second round.
Draft-eligible non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
1
Luke Joeckel*
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: I still think Utah DT Star Lotulelei would be a good fit here, but offensive tackle makes more sense because Joeckel (or Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher) is the safer option. The interesting part of this pick is whether current Chiefs LT Branden Albert would move to the right side, or Joeckel would play on the right for a year while Albert plays out a season under the franchise tag. It doesn't make sense to take a tackle with the top overall pick if you see him as a right tackle his entire career, so there will be a plan in place, perhaps even one that includes trading Albert. No matter what, Joeckel's balance and footwork in pass protection, and his solid angles in the run game, make him an elite prospect.
PLAYER CARD
2
Dion Jordan
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6¼
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Analysis: Jordan is the top pass-rusher in this class, but that's not all he can do. His fluidity and range in coverage are rare for a DE/OLB prospect with his length. He wouldn't be a great fit in many 4-3 defenses, but his ability to get after the passer when turned loose upfield, as well as drop into coverage from a two- or three-point stance, is ideal for the scheme new head coach Gus Bradley and defensive coordinator Bob Babich are bringing to town. Bradley and Pete Carroll -- his former boss in Seattle -- both coached under Monte Kiffin and had success with schemes that marry Tampa 2 principles to some 3-4 principles, and Jordan's skill set makes him a perfect fit at the LEO position in that kind of system.
PLAYER CARD
3
Geno Smith
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2⅜
WT: 218
POS: QB
Analysis: The Raiders recently cut Tommy Kelly, so Florida DT Sharrif Floyd could very well be the pick here. However, Oakland has signed six players along the defensive front seven this offseason, and with the roster being overhauled quarterback becomes a consideration. Current QB Carson Palmer could be on his way out because of contract considerations, and if the team thinks Smith is a quarterback worth building around he would trump anything else. He carries a late-first round grade, but quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in the league and Smith has the work ethic and skill set to polish up the problem areas in his game.
PLAYER CARD
4
Eric Fisher
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: The Eagles have addressed a lot of other needs already this offseason, especially in terms of finding good fits along the front seven in new 3-4 scheme. Many personnel evaluators in the NFL think Fisher is just as good as -- if not slightly better than -- Joeckel, and Philadelphia would get one of the premier players in this class. Both Jason Peters and Todd Herremans return from injury this season, but there is no guarantee they will remain healthy, and Fisher's movement skills make him a good fit in the up-tempo scheme new head coach Chip Kelly will install.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah*
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5¼
WT: 271
POS: DE
Analysis: The Lions have plenty of options here. Offensive tackle is a major need after the retirement of Jeff Backus and the loss of free agent Gosder Cherilus to Indianapolis, so they will have to look long and hard at Oklahoma's Lane Johnson in this scenario. However, given what Detroit has invested in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the middle of the defense, there is a need for a special player on the outside who can pull it all together. Ansah is not your prototypical undersized right end, but he is an explosive pass-rusher with elite burst, long arms and the ability to transition speed to power. He's somewhat raw, but if Ansah reaches his full potential the Lions could get a player in the same vein as Aldon Smith or Jason Pierre-Paul.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dee Milliner*
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11⅞
WT: 201
POS: CB
Analysis: I wasn't as high as some others on Browns QB Brandon Weeden during last year's draft process, but even I believe he deserves at least one year to prove what he can do under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, whose system should play to Weeden's strength as a big-armed passer who can drive the ball downfield. That leaves cornerback as a top need area, and Milliner is a no-brainer if he's available. His instincts, recognition skills and discipline are impressive, and he's reliable in run support. Milliner would be an excellent complement to current Browns starter Joe Haden.
PLAYER CARD
7
Lane Johnson
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Analysis: If Smith is off the board and the Cardinals don't feel good about any other quarterback, they can still fill a priority need with a top-10 prospect in Johnson. He is still a work in progress after moving from quarterback to tight end to tackle in recent seasons, but Johnson continues to get bigger and stronger, and he is certainly ready to step into a starting role as a rookie. His floor might be lower than that of Joeckel or Fisher, but he will improve with game experience and it's not hard to argue that Johnson's athleticism and movement skills give him a potentially higher ceiling.
PLAYER CARD
8
Chance Warmack
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 317
POS: G
Analysis: I feel like I should apologize to Bills fans for this pick given the team's quarterback situation, but there are reasons this makes sense. First, they must be able to run the ball effectively and protect the quarterback well, no matter who he is. Whether Buffalo brings in a veteran or drafts a second-tier prospect like Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib -- who played for new Bills head coach Doug Marrone in college -- that player will need all the help he can get. Warmack is one of the most complete guards I've ever evaluated. He is big, strong and nasty, and is an easy mover in pass protection. He's the rare guard worthy of a top-10 pick, especially in this scenario with no worthy options available to fill needs at receiver and tight end.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo*
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4¼
WT: 241
POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo's ideal fit is at right end in a 4-3 system, where he can put his hand in the dirt and explode upfield after the quarterback. However, the Jets need an edge rusher more than anything and that's what Mingo does best. He is also capable of dropping into coverage when asked, and I believe people will be pleasantly surprised by his pass-rush production in the NFL compared to what he did in 2012 at LSU.
PLAYER CARD
10
Sharrif Floyd*
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-2⅝
WT: 297
POS: DT
Analysis: If the Raiders opt for Smith at No. 3, there is not a great fit for Floyd from picks four through nine. The Titans would probably like an elite edge rusher to fall to them, but they would gladly take a player some feel is the best overall prospect on the board. Tennessee does not have a big-bodied player who can penetrate and disrupt the way Floyd can, and the attention he would demand in the middle would make Titans DEs Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley more effective as well.
PLAYER CARD
11
Star Lotulelei
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2½
WT: 311
POS: DT
Free agency and trades have filled many needs and opened holes elsewhere. Meanwhile, the draft process has solidified the status of some top draft prospects, while questions have been raised about others.
The evaluation process is still ongoing, with players still visiting team facilities for interviews and private workouts, but at this point we're getting a better feel for how the early rounds might play out.
Below is my latest mock draft, which this time around has been extended to two rounds. Plenty can change between now and April 25, but based on extensive film study and conversations with people across the league this is my best projection of how the first 60-plus picks might play out.
There's a change at No. 1 from my last mock draft, and a quarterback has broken into the top three overall. Elsewhere, linemen continue to dominate the top 10, and plenty of quality prospects are there for the taking in the second round.
Draft-eligible non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
1
Luke Joeckel*
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&M
AGE: 21
HT: 6-6
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: I still think Utah DT Star Lotulelei would be a good fit here, but offensive tackle makes more sense because Joeckel (or Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher) is the safer option. The interesting part of this pick is whether current Chiefs LT Branden Albert would move to the right side, or Joeckel would play on the right for a year while Albert plays out a season under the franchise tag. It doesn't make sense to take a tackle with the top overall pick if you see him as a right tackle his entire career, so there will be a plan in place, perhaps even one that includes trading Albert. No matter what, Joeckel's balance and footwork in pass protection, and his solid angles in the run game, make him an elite prospect.
PLAYER CARD
2
Dion Jordan
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Oregon
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6¼
WT: 248
POS: OLB
Analysis: Jordan is the top pass-rusher in this class, but that's not all he can do. His fluidity and range in coverage are rare for a DE/OLB prospect with his length. He wouldn't be a great fit in many 4-3 defenses, but his ability to get after the passer when turned loose upfield, as well as drop into coverage from a two- or three-point stance, is ideal for the scheme new head coach Gus Bradley and defensive coordinator Bob Babich are bringing to town. Bradley and Pete Carroll -- his former boss in Seattle -- both coached under Monte Kiffin and had success with schemes that marry Tampa 2 principles to some 3-4 principles, and Jordan's skill set makes him a perfect fit at the LEO position in that kind of system.
PLAYER CARD
3
Geno Smith
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: West Virginia
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2⅜
WT: 218
POS: QB
Analysis: The Raiders recently cut Tommy Kelly, so Florida DT Sharrif Floyd could very well be the pick here. However, Oakland has signed six players along the defensive front seven this offseason, and with the roster being overhauled quarterback becomes a consideration. Current QB Carson Palmer could be on his way out because of contract considerations, and if the team thinks Smith is a quarterback worth building around he would trump anything else. He carries a late-first round grade, but quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in the league and Smith has the work ethic and skill set to polish up the problem areas in his game.
PLAYER CARD
4
Eric Fisher
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: Central Michigan
AGE: 22
HT: 6-7
WT: 306
POS: OT
Analysis: The Eagles have addressed a lot of other needs already this offseason, especially in terms of finding good fits along the front seven in new 3-4 scheme. Many personnel evaluators in the NFL think Fisher is just as good as -- if not slightly better than -- Joeckel, and Philadelphia would get one of the premier players in this class. Both Jason Peters and Todd Herremans return from injury this season, but there is no guarantee they will remain healthy, and Fisher's movement skills make him a good fit in the up-tempo scheme new head coach Chip Kelly will install.
PLAYER CARD
5
Ezekiel Ansah*
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYU
AGE: 23
HT: 6-5¼
WT: 271
POS: DE
Analysis: The Lions have plenty of options here. Offensive tackle is a major need after the retirement of Jeff Backus and the loss of free agent Gosder Cherilus to Indianapolis, so they will have to look long and hard at Oklahoma's Lane Johnson in this scenario. However, given what Detroit has invested in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley in the middle of the defense, there is a need for a special player on the outside who can pull it all together. Ansah is not your prototypical undersized right end, but he is an explosive pass-rusher with elite burst, long arms and the ability to transition speed to power. He's somewhat raw, but if Ansah reaches his full potential the Lions could get a player in the same vein as Aldon Smith or Jason Pierre-Paul.
PLAYER CARD
6
Dee Milliner*
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 5-11⅞
WT: 201
POS: CB
Analysis: I wasn't as high as some others on Browns QB Brandon Weeden during last year's draft process, but even I believe he deserves at least one year to prove what he can do under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner, whose system should play to Weeden's strength as a big-armed passer who can drive the ball downfield. That leaves cornerback as a top need area, and Milliner is a no-brainer if he's available. His instincts, recognition skills and discipline are impressive, and he's reliable in run support. Milliner would be an excellent complement to current Browns starter Joe Haden.
PLAYER CARD
7
Lane Johnson
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma
AGE: 22
HT: 6-6
WT: 303
POS: OT
Analysis: If Smith is off the board and the Cardinals don't feel good about any other quarterback, they can still fill a priority need with a top-10 prospect in Johnson. He is still a work in progress after moving from quarterback to tight end to tackle in recent seasons, but Johnson continues to get bigger and stronger, and he is certainly ready to step into a starting role as a rookie. His floor might be lower than that of Joeckel or Fisher, but he will improve with game experience and it's not hard to argue that Johnson's athleticism and movement skills give him a potentially higher ceiling.
PLAYER CARD
8
Chance Warmack
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Alabama
AGE: 21
HT: 6-2
WT: 317
POS: G
Analysis: I feel like I should apologize to Bills fans for this pick given the team's quarterback situation, but there are reasons this makes sense. First, they must be able to run the ball effectively and protect the quarterback well, no matter who he is. Whether Buffalo brings in a veteran or drafts a second-tier prospect like Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib -- who played for new Bills head coach Doug Marrone in college -- that player will need all the help he can get. Warmack is one of the most complete guards I've ever evaluated. He is big, strong and nasty, and is an easy mover in pass protection. He's the rare guard worthy of a top-10 pick, especially in this scenario with no worthy options available to fill needs at receiver and tight end.
PLAYER CARD
9
Barkevious Mingo*
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSU
AGE: 22
HT: 6-4¼
WT: 241
POS: DE
Analysis: Mingo's ideal fit is at right end in a 4-3 system, where he can put his hand in the dirt and explode upfield after the quarterback. However, the Jets need an edge rusher more than anything and that's what Mingo does best. He is also capable of dropping into coverage when asked, and I believe people will be pleasantly surprised by his pass-rush production in the NFL compared to what he did in 2012 at LSU.
PLAYER CARD
10
Sharrif Floyd*
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: Florida
AGE: 20
HT: 6-2⅝
WT: 297
POS: DT
Analysis: If the Raiders opt for Smith at No. 3, there is not a great fit for Floyd from picks four through nine. The Titans would probably like an elite edge rusher to fall to them, but they would gladly take a player some feel is the best overall prospect on the board. Tennessee does not have a big-bodied player who can penetrate and disrupt the way Floyd can, and the attention he would demand in the middle would make Titans DEs Derrick Morgan and Kamerion Wimbley more effective as well.
PLAYER CARD
11
Star Lotulelei
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: Utah
AGE: 23
HT: 6-2½
WT: 311
POS: DT
