TLance Rookie QB Predictions

[Barilko]

i agree, im just saying being ok doesnt justify the hyper or drafting him. lots of college qbs are ok. Shea
weber.....

 

[Stakesarehigh]

I know I'd rather have a late round Eason on my team than a top ten Herbert

 

[Heatles84]

Now that most of the fantasy relevant rookies have been drafted in both the main dynasty leagues, going to post this.

Joe Burrow: Future star- this guy has an awesome combination of high floor and high ceiling. I know people will point to inexperience as a knock against him, but he flashed every imaginable skill last season, while most importantly showing an extremely advanced ability to read the field and make decisions. He will be a franchise QB and he has the upside to be a hall of famer someday.

Floor = Kirk Cousins, ceiling = more athletic Drew Brees

Tua Tagovailoa: Bust- maybe not totally from a fantasy standpoint, but he is going to struggle and will be inconsistent. Tua throws a beautiful ball, and it is easy to be enamored watching him throw strikes out of clean pockets to an all time great collegiate WR core, but the reality is that Tua struggles to make decisions when pressured, and when defenses could disguise coverages (which very rarely happened to him at the college level). He will probably make enough plays to keep his job for a few years, but when he is up for that first contract, the Dolphins are going to face that difficult decision on whether to keep him or cut bait. He might make enough plays to provide some fantasy value in between interceptions though.

Closest on field comp- Jameis Winston

Justin Herbert: Herbert has a wide range of outcomes and will need to improve his ball
Placement and accuracy to meet the high end of his expected outcome, but I believe he has the mental game to excel if he can sure up the mechanics. Herbert has a strong chance to be a low end to average franchise QB

Floor - Blaine Gabbert, ceiling = Less athletic CARSON Wentz

Jordan Love: Bust. Don’t waste your time waiting for this guy to develop. He throws a pretty ball but lacks the decision making skills to play the QB position effectively at the NFL level. Once a year scouts fall for the big armed kid who just “needs a little coaching”. Well, Love is that player this year. My bet is that you won’t see him starting very many NFL games and that the Packers will move on within a season of Rodgers’ departure, if not before.

Jalen Hurts: Not a QB. Will make a nice Taysom Hill clone though!

I really don't see how you can keep comparing Tua to Jameis Winston. Tua had nowhere near the issues that Jameis had coming out of college.

My predictions:

Burrow - Slightly better career than Andy Dalton. He'll be hampered by an inept and incompetent organization that is cheap in the Bengals. Also, like Tua, he also had an all-time great WR core and tools around him as well.

Tua - Will probably make a pro bowl or two. I see him as a consistent start as a mid-tier QB. Not elite by any means, but solid.

Herbert - Complete bust. He had the best OL in college at Oregon, and when you watched some of their games, you never really saw him take any of them over.

Agree on Hurts and Love.

 

[Heatles84]

I know I'd rather have a late round Eason on my team than a top ten Herbert

If Eason doesn't work out, then whatever. Which, I don't see Eason lasting long in the league. But I see Hebert's struggles coming.

 

[Heatles84]

Also, @tlance I'm going to need more information on these chronic bad decision patterns by Tua you keep mentioning. Especially since he has 11 INTs over the entirety of his collegiate career.

 

[Clayton]

To expand my thoughts on Jordan Love, I think he throws an awesome deep ball especially if he gets his upper body set and can just throw it straight. Where I saw issues was when he was throwing to the boundary and obviously recognition when it comes to defenses.

Coverage schemes get simpler when teams stack the box. I figured that a team would need to put him in a 'run first' scheme like Tennessee or the Niners and the team that drafted him looks like they are taking the team that direction. I do think the Packers will successfully develop him into the next Tannehill or dare I say Dak Prescott. He has that upside. Its just that its all based on how much you trust Love to develop and how much you trust the Packers to deal Rodgers and maintain talent around Love on offense (which arguably....isnt super talented without Rodgers). Then you also have to factor in that the Packers being a run first team probably means that you want the running backs in GB and not the QB.

The thing to watch here is when Rodgers leaves the Packers. I think the only way I'd care about Love as a prospect is if Rodgers and the Packers relationship totally breaks down in 2020 and Love is the starter in 2021. Honestly, I kinda think this is the expected result. 1 year to sit is also pretty much the most I would expect a modern NFL team to try and wait and about the development time a team should expect. I'd imagine there would be a few teams that would do whatever they could to accommodate Rodgers and his big contract.

I think there is a really good chance that the Packers are going to be somewhat redeemed by this pick at some point. I do think their overall drafting strategy of avoiding defense and WRs will come back to haunt them in the deepest WR class you'll ever see.

 

[averagejoe]

As much as i am all in favor of a Packers collapse, i think theyre making a huge mistake.

Heard analyst Louis Riddick comparing Aaron Rodgers to Drew Bledsoe. He said one reason Bledsoe never got his job back from Brady (& was subsequently traded) was because he adlibbed too many plays. Riddick sees the same thing playing out for Rodgers.

If Rodgers is adlibbing plays on a team that went 13-3 and was 1 win away from the Super Bowl and the Packers dont like that.... well.... team politics will win out. And just based on this, i think it spells doom for the Packers.

 

[Clayton]

As much as i am all in favor of a Packers collapse, i think theyre making a huge mistake.

Heard analyst Louis Riddick comparing Aaron Rodgers to Drew Bledsoe. He said one reason Bledsoe never got his job back from Brady (& was subsequently traded) was because he adlibbed too many plays. Riddick sees the same thing playing out for Rodgers.

If Rodgers is adlibbing plays on a team that went 13-3 and was 1 win away from the Super Bowl and the Packers dont like that.... well.... team politics will win out. And just based on this, i think it spells doom for the Packers.

I think most people, myself included, probably think they made this play to replace Rodgers at least a year early. When the Packers replaced Favre, they had good reason. Favre was randomly contemplating retirement on a regular basis IIRC. This is different.

Thats not my issue with their draft, though. They took AJ Dillon ahead of Willie Gay, Jeremy Chinn, Logan Wilson etc and one pick after Kristian Fulton. Thats a crazy pick even if they needed RB and they really don't. They then took a TE ahead of Malik Harrison, Terrell Burgess, etc. A big part of being a 'run first' team is having a good defense. I'm not sure they do moving forward.

The whole offseason seems really messy and if this gets coaches fired then it could get even messier.

 

[ehb5]

Burrow - I think he's the best QB prospect since Luck. He's elite at all the most important parts of being a QB and ok to good at the less important things. I agree with the more mobile Drew Brees comp.

Tua - I like Tua but I think he's a step down. Not sure I agree with the jameis comp but I agree with most of your analysis of him. He's a little risky but worth the risk - I can see him ending up as the best QB of the class even as much as I love Burrow.

Herbert - blegh. Herbert is the anti burrow to me. He's really good at the things least important (he's big and tall with a big strong arm, looks the part) but he's not very accurate and has inconsistent decision making. He's not the worst QB prospect of recent years but I don't think he's a first round caliber QB.

Love - similar to Herbert I think love is a project and I don't like projects in round 1. The decision making is rough at times. The arm and mobility are impressive but at the end of the day he wasn't even that good of a QB in a non power 5 conference in college - that's a big ask to suddenly expect him to be a good QB in the NFL.

Hurts - gotta say I completely disagree with you on this one. I love hurts. I think he's a much much better passer than he gets credit for. He certainly doesn't have the arm strength of the other guys but his accuracy and decision making are better than Herbert and Loves. His mobility and pocket movement can get him out of jams or run him into jams at times. All that together, he reminds me A LOT of Russell Wilson and I think round 2 was the perfect time to take a shot on him (Philly was a weird spot though).

 

[Chewbaccer]

Well, he still did more than "nothing".. And his freshman stats say he hacked it pretty decently at Georgia..as a freshman..just didn't work out. Not following Georgia football, I don't know why, but certainly looked like a promising start

As a lifelong, diehard UGA fan, I can tell you that Eason was garbage at UGA. His footworked sucked, he had no touch on his passes, sorry but a swing to the the RB doesn't need to be a 100 MPH fastball, couldn't read a defense and lacked pocket presence.

He banged up his knee the first half of the first game his sophomore season, and lost his job to true freshman, Jake Fromm, who isn't much himself, and I don't think has a future as anything more than a backup QB in the NFL. But Fromm can read a defense, can put touch on his passes and isn't a complete statue(he's not mobile by any stretch, but he could move if need be). It was mostly the same roster in 2017 as it was in 2016, but with Eason, UGA went 8-5 in 16, with Fromm, UGA went 13-2 in 17.

Fromm has a future in coaching IMO. Eason has a big arm and not much more.

 

[Clayton]

Hurts - gotta say I completely disagree with you on this one. I love hurts. I think he's a much much better passer than he gets credit for. He certainly doesn't have the arm strength of the other guys but his accuracy and decision making are better than Herbert and Loves. His mobility and pocket movement can get him out of jams or run him into jams at times. All that together, he reminds me A LOT of Russell Wilson and I think round 2 was the perfect time to take a shot on him (Philly was a weird spot though).

I'm not sure I'm going to say Russell Wilson but Hurts is the epitome of a rd2 QB imo.

He is a guy that will likely get time to play when Wentz inevitably goes down again so this isn't a terrible spot for him, either. If we're talking about fantasy then I just view him as a backup that the Eagles are going to trust to make plays.

Where I think I disagree with you is the accuracy. His decision making is there but I'm not ready to say that the accuracy is there at an NFL level. At worst, I think he is Jake Locker. I think that has some value if Wentz goes down. Ceiling? Could be anything.

 

[tlance]

I would agree with pretty much all that. But what about Eason?

Doesn’t have it either.

Out of the day 2 picks, Fromm is most likely to emerge as a valuable option. Either a high end backup or a low tier starter.

 

[tlance]

I really don't see how you can keep comparing Tua to Jameis Winston. Tua had nowhere near the issues that Jameis had coming out of college.

My predictions:

Burrow - Slightly better career than Andy Dalton. He'll be hampered by an inept and incompetent organization that is cheap in the Bengals. Also, like Tua, he also had an all-time great WR core and tools around him as well.

Tua - Will probably make a pro bowl or two. I see him as a consistent start as a mid-tier QB. Not elite by any means, but solid.

Herbert - Complete bust. He had the best OL in college at Oregon, and when you watched some of their games, you never really saw him take any of them over.

Agree on Hurts and Love.

You do realize I am talking about his play right?

I think he will make a lot mistakes at the pro level. Character wise and and everything else there is no comp. When Tua leads the NFL in interceptions over the next 3 years, you will see what I am talking about.

The Jameis comparison is because I think he will make a lot of plays. But make too many mistakes in the process.

 

[tlance]

Also, @tlance I'm going to need more information on these chronic bad decision patterns by Tua you keep mentioning. Especially since he has 11 INTs over the entirety of his collegiate career.

I don’t think I ever said he made chronic bad decisions in the college.

I did say he will make them in the NFL.

I don’t believe he sees the field very well. And I have my reasons. Obviously nothing I more I can say about it is going to convince you, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I know I'd rather have a late round Eason on my team than a top ten Herbert

x 1,000,000

 

[Shanemansj13]

My prediction is Baker Mayfield is much better than any of these QB's by a good margin

 

[Wamu]

My prediction is Baker Mayfield is much better than any of these QB's by a good margin

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

side effect of drinking directly outta Lake Erie

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Baker def needs to scrap the stache

 

[Shanemansj13]

I think out of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 class, the '20 class could end being the worst.

2018 class
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mason Rudolph
Luke Falk

2019 class
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Jarrett Stidham
Gardner Minshew

2020 class
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Jalen Hurts
Jacob Eason
Jake Fromm
James Morgan

 

[Clayton]

I think out of the 2018, 2019 and 2020 class, the '20 class could end being the worst.

2018 class
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Mason Rudolph
Luke Falk

2019 class
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones
Dwayne Haskins
Drew Lock
Will Grier
Jarrett Stidham
Gardner Minshew

2020 class
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Jalen Hurts
Jacob Eason
Jake Fromm
James Morgan

Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray do set a fairly high bar