The Road to a Repeat: Complete NFL Standings and Playoff Predictions

[iknowftbll]

This was an incredible read! Now obviously we are all going to have our disagreements. For me I have stated before that I don't think the Raiders will be a playoff team this year. I think they will be like many other overhyped teams and fall very short of what the analyst think they will do. I think 7-9 seems about right. I also think that last month is going to be a doozy for them. 3 of the last 4 all on the road against division opponents. Not exactly what you want to see at that point.

Again great read and will have to think on this some more.

You could definitely be right about both the Chiefs and the Raiders. I was wrong about the Chiefs last year (I think I gave them 9-7) and missed wide on the Chargers (I believe I picked them to go 10-6). I've really enjoyed the rivalry with the Chiefs the past few seasons and actually hope they're our chief rival (see what I did there?) for at least one more year.

As for the Raiders, I've said it many times: they'll have their moments under JDR but will never be a perennial contender. I doubt he ever gets them into the playoffs two consecutive years even. But he's not a completely incapable HC and has a talented roster and this year a favorable schedule.

Outside the AFC West, I read the Bills owner said Rex Ryan will be fired if the Bills fail to reach the playoffs. That seems a bit premature for a 2nd year coach. Unless the Bills go entirely tits-up, of course. But what if they go 9-7 and are a few pieces away from contending? Would firing Rex Ryan and his staff be wise? Would that set them back another couple years?

 

[randymon]

I think every div this year will be up in the air with 3 games to go as to who ends up div champs. No clear cut favorites IMO. Got to love it!

 

[iknowftbll]

I think every div this year will be up in the air with 3 games to go as to who ends up div champs. No clear cut favorites IMO. Got to love it!

Definitely the AFC North, West and South. I genuinely believe the Patriots will have the East locked up through the 2020 season by week 14 or so. I like that the league schedules division games as the season finale. I really think they could ratchet up the suspense on a season if they tried to tweak the scheduling so that at least half a given team's division games were in the last 4-5 weeks of the season. There's still plenty of division games for early in the season to showcase rivalry games, and there's always cross-division rivalries like Broncos-Patriots to get us through the early part of the season. But imagine if 12 games are in the books, and the Broncos are 9-3, Chiefs 8-4 Raiders 7-5 and Chargers 5-7. Now imagine all four teams still have to play each of the other three before the season has ended. It would make for an exciting finish.

As it stands this year does look from here to be an exciting finish. The Broncos get the Chiefs twice and the Raiders once in the last 6 weeks. Throw in a tilt with the Patriots in that stretch and it really is going to be an exciting stretch. The Broncos definitely won't be "cruising" into the playoffs this year.

 

[iknowftbll]

This is the longest week of the year: after the last pre-season game and before the first game of the season. All the sites I like to read are simply awaiting news on the looming cuts, and the aftermath of that will give us a little to talk about. We may see a trade for Sanchez this weekend. That's worthwhile. But for the most part, I am bored out of my mind waiting for the season to start.

Oh, and there's only so much of the QB discussion I can endure.

So here I am revisiting some of my predictions for the season and wonder if, this much closer to the kickoff, how ready to stand by them I really am. Now first thing's first: I never back down from a prediction once I make it. But some things have unfolded that have me definitely thinking I may have missed wide on a couple of these. Consider:

Broncos: When I made the 12-4 prediction for the Broncos I assumed Sanchez would earn the starting gig and figured he'd thrive under Kubkiak's coaching. I thought he'd deliver a season similar to Jake Plummer's 2005 with the Broncos. Now I still believe Trevor Siemian can lead the team to a 12-4 finish. On this team defense reigns and the offense should be better than last year. And if the Siemian-led offense catches a few teams with their pants down this Broncos team could be 14-2! More likely it's going to be a grind. We are kidding ourselves if we think there won't be growing pains. Yes, Siemian beat out the competition for the starting job, but that means the assumption that Sanchez would respond to coaching here was flawed. Thus the baseline 12-4 prediction may be flawed too. Let me be clear: I STILL THINK THE BRONCOS CAN GO 12-4! But 11-5 or 10-6 wouldn't be a disappointment to me.

Raiders: I predicted the Raiders to go 10-6 and even win a playoff game. I've said repeatedly that, despite a young core and a lot of hype, the coaching of JDR means this is a team not "trending in the right direction" so much as a good team that will "have its moments" but ultimately be a disappointment to the home crowd out there in San Quentin. This team looks great ON PAPER. But making a 10-6 prediction on a team like this is like trying to catch lightening in a bottle. There are a lot of new faces on defense and through the preseason the players executed fundamentals poorly. While you cannot get too excited about what happens in the preseason, if players are not executing the basics soundly it may be cause for concern. While I think this team can still go 10-6, it would not surprise me in the least bit to watch them falter and finish 6-10 either.

Chiefs: I predicted 8-8 and I think that's about right for the Chiefs. I think their offense has been a little under rated since Reid's arrival and this year I think they are poised to take a big step forward on that side of the ball. But those gains may well be off set by a defense that may have trouble getting after the passer, stopping the run, and maybe even defending the pass. Injuries and FA departures look to undermine this defense and that could easily scuttle the season, despite what appears to be improvements on offense. And let's not forget who is coaching this team. Andy Reid has been a great fit for the Chiefs, but he will also be the reason they drop an otherwise winnable game, maybe 2 this year. If I'm wrong about the defense and right about the offense, this team could easily be 11-5 again. I was wrong about them last year. But I definitely think 8-8 is still a reasonable prediction for the Chiefs on the eve of the 2016 season.

Chargers: I have honestly not paid this team a single iota of thought this making these initial predictions in May. There has been very little press on the Chargers outside of the Bosa contract dispute. I maintain the Chargers, while finishing 4-12 last year, are better than most 4-12 teams and think their offense can be downright explosive. If Melvin Gordon breaks out this unit has the potential to be the best in the division (something that can be fairly said about any of the 4 AFC West offenses in the right set of "if...then..." scenarios). Defensively I don't think anyone lining up against the Chargers has anything to worry about. Does anyone think Bosa is going to have a great rookie season after holding out all summer? Not me. I am sticking with 7-9 for this team with no reservation. And that's a compliment for a team in a tough division coming off a 4-12 year.

One thing I've learned is that if you are surprised by anything that happens in the NFL you've not been paying attention. Any of these 4 teams can win the AFC West. The 2003 Chargers went 4-12 and won the AFC West at 12-4 in 2004. The 2003 Chiefs were 13-3 and dropped to 7-9 in 2004, despite an insanely good offense. Predictions are a fun way to pass the time and at best, just a guess. Even if I nail all four teams dead on, it doesn't make me a genius, just a good guesser.

 

[cdumler7]

@iknowftbll good thread to pick up now that we have had some time to watch these teams a bit.

Broncos
We have seen in the preseason even with playing vanilla our starting defense dominate. I do question a little some of our depth as we did see some of the back ups that will get some quality playing time struggle. The two rookie safeties while showing promise still had times where they were out of place. Our DL depth is being tested with Walker out. Todd Davis while looking really good in the run game has had a couple of passes completed on him so have to see if that continues. So just a couple of questions. I think they will still be an incredible unit for sure but we could see some miscommunications that maybe give up a touchdown here and there. Offensively honestly I have liked what I have seen. I know we have seen some very bad turnovers by all 3 QB's but the offense has also done some nice things. Such as I think I counted something like our starting offense (rotation at QB makes this a bit of a challenge and some other players coming in and out) had 10 drives this preseason. They scored touchdowns on 3 of those and a field goal on another. Most NFL games a team will average around 11-12 drives. So if our offense alone is scoring 24 points a game I feel pretty good about our chances. That would be an increase of about a touchdown per game when we look at the offense alone. Have to remember the points per game stat includes defensive and special teams touchdowns that drove up our average.

Raiders
I have said all off season that winning Free Agency rarely equates to actually winning in the season. Honestly the Broncos have been one of the rare exceptions when we signed Ware, Talib, Ward, and Sanders in one off season. Even there it took a year and a coaching change that better fit those players to see that fully pay off. Yes they produced that first year but to build the team chemistry needed to win a Super Bowl they needed a year in the locker room. So here we have the Raiders who by many "WON" the off season. To me many of those moves could be a year away before they truly pay off. We saw already miscommunications especially on the defensive side of the ball. Now I'm sure that improves as the year goes on but it does look like a bunch of individuals trying to make plays instead of a team working together to make plays. It is why I think they really struggled especially to stop the run game in the preseason and why some of their guys at the point of attack just got blown off the LOS. I would also say the Linebacker core on that defense could be a huge weakness. They looked terrible trying to cover down the middle and not always great at trying to diagnose where a play is going. I have the Raiders going 8-8 this year as they will lean pretty heavily on that offense early on and I think once teams figure out that the Raiders are only an average run blocking team that they can devote more to stopping the pass that the offense will struggle some as we saw the 2nd half of last year.

Chiefs
Honestly I think they could have a top-7 offense this year. Easily one of the most balanced teams in the league with a deadly run attack with maybe 4 guys that could be starting for at least 10 teams in this league right now. Then a passing attack that looks like Alex Smith and Andy Reid are just on the same page. Going to be a tough offense to stop. Defensively though they look like a group that will dominate some games and then really struggle in others. Against weaker teams I could see them really blowing teams out but against teams that have a defense that can keep them in it and that have a strong passing game they are really going to struggle. And what I see on their schedule especially for the road games is teams that love to air it out. They have road games @Raiders, Colts, Panthers, Falcons, and Steelers this year. All can be heavy passing teams that can take advantage of a possibly weak pass rush and a very young secondary.

 

[cdumler7]

Anybody else listen to Mark Kizla on the radio this morning? The guy has been gone for the entire training camp and with pretty much only watching preseason said the Broncos are an 8-8 team. Not saying he is wrong but with him over covering the Olympics I just have a hard time listening to somebody who has hardly paid attention to the Broncos during a very critical time like camp to be making assessments on the team.

 

[iknowftbll]

Kiz is a goof. I think he cares less about being right than he does about generating flow. Fair enough: he's in a rating's based business. But that's what drives me mad about sports analysts in general. They should strive to be accurate.

Back when the sports analysts were making picks for the AFCCG do you all remember seeing predictions of Patriots 42, Broncos 10? Understanding that the Panthers did indeed rail the Cardinals in the NFCCG, shouldn't an analyst know a blowout like that between two good teams is almost impossible to predict? The Broncos had a defense that had allowed under 18 PPG (when subtracting the scores surrendered by the offense) and had just stifled the #4 scoring offense a week prior. Predicting a 42-10 final as pure idiocy. But that's what analysts do. Kiz is no different or better. For a hometown reporter to predict an 8-8 finish for the defending champs is just a guy trying to be relevant in a ratings based business. It's too bad none of these guys believe being right and reliable is good for ratings too.

Meanwhile, on the Raiders, fans are concerned about the defense and rightly so. Through the preseason the Raiders struggled to tackle well and stop the run. Look, preseason is a funny thing. If your team looks great you don't necessarily have reason to rejoice. But if they look like butt crack you may have cause for concern. Nobody, even in the preseason, is going out there and trying to not stop the run, not tackle, etc... I really would love to see their futility continue. I believe RM has them in a healthier spot than they've been in a long time, but question he has the coaching staff to hold them together and get them over the hump. If JDR can't do it, he and RM may be out, and with so much uncertainty surrounding the team right now, it could be a long time before this team sniffs a winning season if they don't get it in 2016.