The Quality Start Thread

[MilkSpiller22]

Quality Starts is one of my favorite statistics in baseball... In this thread I will share why, and try to convince others of its greatness...

Lets first define what a QS is- it is a game started by a pitcher, he goes at least 6 innings and allows no more than 3 runs...

I will start by explaining that QS is not meant to be used for one game, it is an accumulative stat where the more the better, just like RBIs, Runs, Wins, Strikeouts, etc...

What I love about the statistic is that it is the only one I know of that measures consistency... Its a game log tally stat just like wins and losses... You either had a quality start or you didn't, and the more Quality starts you have the more individual games you pitched that qualifies for a Quality start... The Higher your QS% the more consistently quality you have been...

Know I will try to discredit the 2 major complaints.

1. The 6 innings and 3 runs is very arbitrary
a. First off, baseball is a game of 3s, there are 3 outs per inning, 3 strikes per out, 9 innings(3*3), 3 Outfielders, 3 infielders, 9 person lineup. Doesn't it make sense to keep the definition of Quality in the 3 family??
b. If we think of QS as Theoretical Wins(which is one of its purposes), leaving the game with the theoretical win is very important and throughout baseball history the MLB average of runs scored per team per game has never been below 3. so by leaving the game scoring 3 or less, your team historically is expected to score more than 3 runs... In fact the lowest average of runs that has ever been scored is 3.38 runs... so by only allowing 3 runs, you left the game with the theoretical lead...
c. the 6 innings, if 5 innings is seen to be an official game and is the minimum innings pitched to get a win, then 6 innings is the minimum hole inning better than the minimum.
d. So what if it is arbitrary as long as it is a constant and it is measured the same way for every pitcher everytime... It is not any more arbitrary than 9 innings, 3 strikes=out, 4 balls= walk, etc... and again it is only a definition, the stat only means anything when accumulated...

2. the 6 innings and 3 runs is worse than 9 innings 4 runs
a. this complaint is the one that pisses me off, because it shows how much one does not understand about this statistic... Once again QS is only a definition and the stat only means something when accumulated... ERA means nothing!!!
b. by thinking of it as a theoretical win, what would you rather have your team allow 3 runs in 6 or 4 runs in 9... I will help you with some history, only 8 times since 1900 has MLB averaged 5 or more runs scored... If your team allows 4 runs you must score 5 runs to win in 9 or coin toss the chances in extra innings... a pitcher that allows only 3 runs in 6, still left the game with the theoretical lead, and the team has a better chance of winning the game...
_____________________________________________________

again, QS is only a definition, the stat is only worth anything when accumulated, so don't look at the individual games and say that that is not Quality, because that is not the point of the statistic...

Using QS% is the best way to use the QS statistic, and since it is one of if not the only pitching statistic that shows consistency it does not get affected by outliers or anything...

 

[calsnowskier]

Are you aware of the PQS stat? It basically looks at each start and awards one point for each of these achievements...

1) Minimum of six innings.

2) Allow no more than an equal number of hits to the number of innings pitched.

3) Strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched.

4) Strike out at least twice as many batters as he walked.

5) Allow no more than one home run.

Basically, a 4 or 5 is considered a "dominant start", while a 0 or 1 is considered a "disaster start". The best way to use this stat over a season (or a career) is to use percentages rather than accrual (Joe Blow had a 60% "Dominant Start" rate and only 12% "Disasters").

Basically, this is just the QS on steroids.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Are you aware of the PQS stat? It basically looks at each start and awards one point for each of these achievements...

1) Minimum of six innings.

2) Allow no more than an equal number of hits to the number of innings pitched.

3) Strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched.

4) Strike out at least twice as many batters as he walked.

5) Allow no more than one home run.

Basically, a 4 or 5 is considered a "dominant start", while a 0 or 1 is considered a "disaster start". The best way to use this stat over a season (or a career) is to use percentages rather than accrual (Joe Blow had a 60% "Dominant Start" rate and only 12% "Disasters").

Basically, this is just the QS on steroids.

Runs allowed is not taken into account??

But no, I was not aware of PQS, nor do I like it. Way to hard to calculate and takes things into the equation that already have its own statistic. For example who cares about how many hrs allowed if the pitcher lets up the runs. Do you care if a pitcher allows a 2 run HR or allows 2 HRs?? All encompassing stats are almost never good.

Also this takes away the consistency aspect of the statistic. Because the points are going to fluctuate too much

 

[calsnowskier]

Runs allowed is not taken into account??

But no, I was not aware of PQS, nor do I like it. Way to hard to calculate and takes things into the equation that already have its own statistic. For example who cares about how many hrs allowed if the pitcher lets up the runs. Do you care if a pitcher allows a 2 run HR or allows 2 HRs?? All encompassing stats are almost never good.

Also this takes away the consistency aspect of the statistic. Because the points are going to fluctuate too much

No. Runs (or earned runs) are immaterial. This really only tracks peripheral stats (hits, walks, HR, K/BB, IP).

I do not think it takes away the consistency at all. At least no more that QS does. A QS is a Boolean value while PQS tells a more detailed story, and has the ability to "get there" in more than a single manner (ER, IP).

Granted, making this a counting stat would be rather pointless. That is why you would want to store each start in one of 6 fields (essentially making it 6 Boolean values). You would also be able to graph a pitchers performance over a time period quite easily.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

No. Runs (or earned runs) are immaterial. This really only tracks peripheral stats (hits, walks, HR, K/BB, IP).

I do not think it takes away the consistency at all. At least no more that QS does. A QS is a Boolean value while PQS tells a more detailed story, and has the ability to "get there" in more than a single manner (ER, IP).

Granted, making this a counting stat would be rather pointless. That is why you would want to store each start in one of 6 fields (essentially making it 6 Boolean values). You would also be able to graph a pitchers performance over a time period quite easily.

Doesnt matter, I am trying to have a thread about QS. Not a fan of the PQS, maybe if I saw it in action I would change my mind but I see too many flaws with it. If you want to start a new thread for that stat you can but let's keep this thread about QS

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Cal, I could debate with you for hours about your stat since I like talking stats. I just know if we do it on this thread i will never get the QS debate that I am looking for

 

[calsnowskier]

Cal, I could debate with you for hours about your stat since I like talking stats. I just know if we do it on this thread i will never get the QS debate that I am looking for

Fair enough. Wasn't trying to hijack, just trying to add flavor

 

[calsnowskier]

BTW, I am not a fan of any single stat either. I think almost any stat, when taken in context, is helpful. No stat is end-all, be-all.

 

[calsnowskier]

Quality Starts is one of my favorite statistics in baseball... In this thread I will share why, and try to convince others of its greatness...

Lets first define what a QS is- it is a game started by a pitcher, he goes at least 6 innings and allows no more than 3 runs...

I will start by explaining that QS is not meant to be used for one game, it is an accumulative stat where the more the better, just like RBIs, Runs, Wins, Strikeouts, etc...

What I love about the statistic is that it is the only one I know of that measures consistency... Its a game log tally stat just like wins and losses... You either had a quality start or you didn't, and the more Quality starts you have the more individual games you pitched that qualifies for a Quality start... The Higher your QS% the more consistently quality you have been...

Know I will try to discredit the 2 major complaints.

1. The 6 innings and 3 runs is very arbitrary
a. First off, baseball is a game of 3s, there are 3 outs per inning, 3 strikes per out, 9 innings(3*3), 3 Outfielders, 3 infielders, 9 person lineup. Doesn't it make sense to keep the definition of Quality in the 3 family??
b. If we think of QS as Theoretical Wins(which is one of its purposes), leaving the game with the theoretical win is very important and throughout baseball history the MLB average of runs scored per team per game has never been below 3. so by leaving the game scoring 3 or less, your team historically is expected to score more than 3 runs... In fact the lowest average of runs that has ever been scored is 3.38 runs... so by only allowing 3 runs, you left the game with the theoretical lead...

3 infielders? Since when?

If the lowest runs per game was 3.38, than by the 6th inning, that team only had 2 runs, so the SP left the game LOSING 2-3.

Leaving the game after 6 while giving up 3 ERs would give the pitcher a 4.50 ERA for that game. In other words, slightly below average. Not bad. Not an all-star, but he did his job.

c. the 6 innings, if 5 innings is seen to be an official game and is the minimum innings pitched to get a win, then 6 innings is the minimum hole inning better than the minimum.
d. So what if it is arbitrary as long as it is a constant and it is measured the same way for every pitcher everytime... It is not any more arbitrary than 9 innings, 3 strikes=out, 4 balls= walk, etc... and again it is only a definition, the stat only means anything when accumulated...

2. the 6 innings and 3 runs is worse than 9 innings 4 runs
a. this complaint is the one that pisses me off, because it shows how much one does not understand about this statistic... Once again QS is only a definition and the stat only means something when accumulated... ERA means nothing!!!
b. by thinking of it as a theoretical win, what would you rather have your team allow 3 runs in 6 or 4 runs in 9... I will help you with some history, only 8 times since 1900 has MLB averaged 5 or more runs scored... If your team allows 4 runs you must score 5 runs to win in 9 or coin toss the chances in extra innings... a pitcher that allows only 3 runs in 6, still left the game with the theoretical lead, and the team has a better chance of winning the game...
_____________________________________________________

again, QS is only a definition, the stat is only worth anything when accumulated, so don't look at the individual games and say that that is not Quality, because that is not the point of the statistic...

Using QS% is the best way to use the QS statistic, and since it is one of if not the only pitching statistic that shows consistency it does not get affected by outliers or anything...

 

[mr.hockey4242]

You failed to mention that it is 3 EARNED RUNS and what the ERA would be. That is a 4.50 ERA. Sorry but that is not good. Only going 6 innings regardless really is not that quality. Pitchers are too soft these days.


And as Cal said. You are not factoring in the other 3 innings at all. You are using a teams average runs scored for a FULL GAME but only presenting 2/3's of the game.


Give me 7 innings of 3 ER or less and that is quality. 6 innings of 1-2 is nice and should be enough with a bullpen that does its job. But a quality starter should be able to go 7 strong.

 

[calsnowskier]

You failed to mention that it is 3 EARNED RUNS and what the ERA would be. That is a 4.50 ERA. Sorry but that is not good. Only going 6 innings regardless really is not that quality. Pitchers are too soft these days.


And as Cal said. You are not factoring in the other 3 innings at all. You are using a teams average runs scored for a FULL GAME but only presenting 2/3's of the game.


Give me 7 innings of 3 ER or less and that is quality. 6 innings of 1-2 is nice and should be enough with a bullpen that does its job. But a quality starter should be able to go 7 strong.

In today's game, though, a dictionary QS is, in fact, a quality start. Maybe it wasn't in the '80s or earlier, but this is now a new, specialized game. If a pitcher goes 7 or 8 inning, almost regardless of ER, he had a quality start (he saved the bully, even if "took one for the team").

I actually really like the QS, and more so now than I did 20 years ago. I just think there is a better stat out there

 

[MilkSpiller22]

You failed to mention that it is 3 EARNED RUNS and what the ERA would be. That is a 4.50 ERA. Sorry but that is not good. Only going 6 innings regardless really is not that quality. Pitchers are too soft these days.


And as Cal said. You are not factoring in the other 3 innings at all. You are using a teams average runs scored for a FULL GAME but only presenting 2/3's of the game.


Give me 7 innings of 3 ER or less and that is quality. 6 innings of 1-2 is nice and should be enough with a bullpen that does its job. But a quality starter should be able to go 7 strong.

MRhockey, did you even read the OP. I issued all that. The era is irrelevant because the stat is not about one game it is an accumulation of a certain qualification.

And the numbers I used were per game. The point is that a pitcher leaves the game with the theoretical win.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

3 infielders? Since when?

If the lowest runs per game was 3.38, than by the 6th inning, that team only had 2 runs, so the SP left the game LOSING 2-3.

Leaving the game after 6 while giving up 3 ERs would give the pitcher a 4.50 ERA for that game. In other words, slightly below average. Not bad. Not an all-star, but he did his job.

meant 3 bases. But you get the point I was making that baseball is a game of 3s.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

ERA has nothing to do with QS. Yes they share innings and earned runs as the main data but ERA is irrelevant.

 

[calsnowskier]

meant 3 bases. But you get the point I was making that baseball is a game of 3s.

I do.

I had actually never made that connection to the QS before. Good point.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

there is a disconnect with ERA and QS...

First off, ERA is not really a per game indicator... Its not about the game it is how well a pitcher does overall...

QS was partially intended to take over for the Wins category but take away the influence of the team... So it basically is a theoretical Win... and to get that you need to leave the game with the theoretical win... a 9 inning 4 runs is not a theoretical win...

In 2014 the league average Runs scored per game was 4.1, if a pitcher goes 9 innings 4 runs, they have at best a theoretical tie... a pitcher that goes 6 innings and 3 runs left the game with the theoretical Win... Yes we do make the assumption that the bullpen gives up no runs, but bullpens are irrelevant, it is all about how you pitched that game and COULD you get the win. With the Qualification that the pitcher must go 6 innings...

 

[calsnowskier]

there is a disconnect with ERA and QS...

First off, ERA is not really a per game indicator... Its not about the game it is how well a pitcher does overall...

QS was partially intended to take over for the Wins category but take away the influence of the team... So it basically is a theoretical Win... and to get that you need to leave the game with the theoretical win... a 9 inning 4 runs is not a theoretical win...

In 2014 the league average Runs scored per game was 4.1, if a pitcher goes 9 innings 4 runs, they have at best a theoretical tie... a pitcher that goes 6 innings and 3 runs left the game with the theoretical Win... Yes we do make the assumption that the bullpen gives up no runs, but bullpens are irrelevant, it is all about how you pitched that game and COULD you get the win. With the Qualification that the pitcher must go 6 innings...

Baseball is also a game of averages and extrapolation.

To say a pitcher who went 6/3 did his job while a pitcher who went 9/4 did not just does not make sense.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Baseball is also a game of averages and extrapolation.

To say a pitcher who went 6/3 did his job while a pitcher who went 9/4 did not just does not make sense.

but what would you rather have, with the knowledge that the MLB average runs scored in 2014 was 4.1??


I would certainly rather have the 6/3

 

[MilkSpiller22]

realize that we are not talking what pitcher had the better game, but which pitcher gives his team the better probability of WINNING...

 

[calsnowskier]

but what would you rather have, with the knowledge that the MLB average runs scored in 2014 was 4.1??


I would certainly rather have the 6/3

What was the MLB ERA for bullies?