The Myth of Rebuilding: When is it time to call it something else?

[SeattleCoug]

Scanning through this thread, I agree with guy who brought up the Saunders/Harang/Bonderman rotation. I mean if this supposedly a rebuild why would you have three washed up pitchers no else wanted in your rotation. Im tired to the yearly Millwood/Saunders 1 year deal to put a bandaid on a rotation spot. We need to actually bring in a legit #3 rather then a stop gap.
The bullpen is always going to be inconsistent. I think we have good young arms down there, they just need some seasoning and to stay healthy. Pryor and Kinney being hurt killed the pen this year.

Z has done a good job building the farm now its up to Chuck and Howie to let him spend a little. They are gonna need to hit on a couple a free agents if they want a chance to contend next year.

 

[wazzu31]

Scanning through this thread, I agree with guy who brought up the Saunders/Harang/Bonderman rotation. I mean if this supposedly a rebuild why would you have three washed up pitchers no else wanted in your rotation. Im tired to the yearly Millwood/Saunders 1 year deal to put a bandaid on a rotation spot. We need to actually bring in a legit #3 rather then a stop gap.
The bullpen is always going to be inconsistent. I think we have good young arms down there, they just need some seasoning and to stay healthy. Pryor and Kinney being hurt killed the pen this year.

Z has done a good job building the farm now its up to Chuck and Howie to let him spend a little. They are gonna need to hit on a couple a free agents if they want a chance to contend next year.

I hear you but that is part of a rebuild. The Mariners main problem has been playing young guys to early and/or other guys that just kill their confidence. They move on and alot of them have become successful. Everyone is talented at the big league level but once you lose confidence it is hard to regain that without a completely fresh start.

 

[NWinAZ]

I hear you but that is part of a rebuild. The Mariners main problem has been playing young guys to early and/or other guys that just kill their confidence. They move on and alot of them have become successful. Everyone is talented at the big league level but once you lose confidence it is hard to regain that without a completely fresh start.

I agree to a point, but in reality we never truly know when 'Too early' is. I just don't believe you can call a guy up who was performing in the minors and then struggles in the majors and then say we called him up too early. Who is to say that if we waited another 2 years before calling the same guy up that he wouldn't struggle still? Confidence is huge, but I think making adjustments is the key after coming up and not being so hard headed as a player by saying 'This worked for me in college so why should I change?'. And I have yet to hear anyone say we brought Seager up too early.

Some players just aren't major league talent. Go find the list of the top college hitters over the past 30 years and a very high percentage of them never make it in the pros or if they do they don't contribute much.

 

[NWinAZ]

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/baseball_RB/2009/D1.pdf

Page 10 list the highest averages for college careers. No guarantees is all I am saying and when called up may or may not have any affect.

 

[dude82]

Readiness goes beyond what kind of stats a player is putting up in the minors. We've seen players come up whose minor league stats, if used as the sole basis for determining "readiness", would seem to indicate he's not ready to move up, but when he gets to the majors he has sustained success. In that instance, I'm assuming that the organization is looking at how the player is handling not putting up the numbers he expects to put up and how well he's making the adjustments he needs to make to improve. If he's struggling to make those adjustments at the minor league level, he's not ready for major league competition.

Then there are the players who move so quickly through the minors that they never face much adversity or the need to make adjustments, so when they get to the majors, their stats may have indicated that they were ready for the next level of competition, but they're not capable of making or are unwilling to make the adjustments necessary when they do fail at the major league level because they've never had to before.

When a coach or a GM talks about a player not being ready for the major leagues, that's what they're talking about most of the time, I think. Handling failure is as important as handling success, if not more important. I don't think the team saw what they needed to see out of The Big Three by the end of Spring Training, so those guys didn't make the team and the M's put in veteran placeholders until they saw what they needed to see from those guys (I believe Hultzen would have been up here right now too if he hadn't gotten hurt and been out for so long).

 

[cezero]

Just hoping they manage not to lose 90 games this year.

That's the benchmark of "success" for this team's ability.

Wedge's recent comments about the talent level of the team speak volumes.

I don't envy Z the work that he's going to have to do to try to fill over a dozen gaping holes it would take to get this team to be consistently at .500 or above. The good thing for him is that Howie and Chuck will probably extend him as long as the bottom line is still healthy enough for the Japanese majority owner.

 

[cezero]

...the at times unreliable bullpen....

It's not at times. They're statistically the 2nd worst bullpen in the AL. To get there, it has be be unreliable virtually all the time, which it is.

Offense improved so marginally this year, it's virtually unremarkable.

Pitching got much worse.

I want the team to do well, truly, but at this rate or "rebuilding" improvement, it might get to be a decent club in 2020 or so. That's how much needs to be done.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Offense improved so marginally this year, it's virtually unremarkable.
.

Have they really improved honestly? They hit more solo homers but other then that have they?

2013 Runs Scored 553 vs Runs allowed 654 so far thru 141 games
On Pace for scoring 635 vs 741 given up
2012 Runs Scored 619 vs Runs allowed 651

Our offense was historically bad last year and we added Morse, Morales, had unexpected production from Ibanez, got improvement Smoak and still are on pace for only 16 more runs then last year.

They still cant bunt, there really isnt much team speed. They are horrible with RISP, and cant ever convert with a guy on 3rd and less then 2 outs. The fundamentals are just awful.

 

[SeattleCoug]

Just hoping they manage not to lose 90 games this year.

That's the benchmark of "success" for this team's ability.

The bar is so incredibly low its depressing. I mean in July people were saying that it would only take 75 wins or so keep Jack's job after having hopes of .500 season. Its hard to blame it all on Jack and Wedge because honestly I dont think Walt Jocketty and Tony Larussa could win in this situation. Even if we let Jack and Wedge go its not like I have confidence that the front office will hire better replacements anyway.

 

[cezero]

I'm just astounded by the ignorant people on here marginalizing the importance of fitness for a bunch of youngsters, no matter the position they play.

 

[Baseballnut77]

ITs ok most of us are astounded by the ignorance that is CEZERO

 

[blstoker]

Have they really improved honestly? They hit more solo homers but other then that have they?

2013 Runs Scored 553 vs Runs allowed 654 so far thru 141 games
On Pace for scoring 635 vs 741 given up
2012 Runs Scored 619 vs Runs allowed 651

Our offense was historically bad last year and we added Morse, Morales, had unexpected production from Ibanez, got improvement Smoak and still are on pace for only 16 more runs then last year.

They still cant bunt, there really isnt much team speed. They are horrible with RISP, and cant ever convert with a guy on 3rd and less then 2 outs. The fundamentals are just awful.

I made a comment that we sacrificed our pitching staff to improve the offense, but in the end all we did was compromise the pitching staff. People didn't take to that every well, and it doesn't appear that the scoring has improved since then.

 

[dude82]

We all know that the main problem in regards to scoring is hitting with runners in scoring position. We just haven't had enough guys get clutch hits often enough. With that in mind, there are reasons for optimism about this offense next year:

For one thing, we're not going to have an automatic out playing at shortstop next year. I think Miller has a pretty good hold on the spot going into Spring Training and he's shown he's capable of hitting at this level and even hitting for some power. We weren't getting either from Ryan in the few months that he was given to have one more chance to at least hit above the Mendoza line. A full year of Miller is an offensive upgrade.

With Ackley's apparent resurgence at the plate, we really got two possible upgrades in one. His move to the outfield coincided with him finding his swing again and as long as he doesn't have to turn too much of his focus to his defense during the season next year, I would hope that he can continue to hit like he's been hitting since his move out there.

In addition to Ackley's re-found swing, Nick Franklin has shown that he's capable of hitting major league pitching as well. He hasn't done much hitting lately, but he's going to have an opportunity to adjust to how the league is pitching him for the next few weeks and if he shows that he can make those adjustments, he's an upgrade offensively and defensively to what Ackley was a second base.

Morse was expected to provide a lot of offense this year, but what we got from him instead was a lot of time on the DL. You can't say with certainty that whomever we put out there to replace him next year is going to be and stay healthy, and I doubt we'll get the power production from that player that we expected from Morse before his injuries, but assuming that that person does stay healthy all year, there's a good chance that speed will be one of the things he brings to the table that Morse didn't, even if he doesn't bring the homeruns we expected from Morse.

Smoak got off to the kind of start this year that had people wondering why the team kept giving him chances, then he went on the DL. Since he came back, he's been the kind of hitter that we used to only expect to see in September. A full year of him producing at that level can be a big boost to the offense next year.

Another thing that I would expect to see a lot more of next year is the kind of team speed that has been lacking for almost all of this season. Having speed guys in your lineup puts the defense on its toes and gives you more options to score besides hitting the ball over the fence. You're not going to get much speed out of Smoak or Zunino next year, but depending on what happens with Ibanez and Morales this off-season, I would expect to see the team speed put to better and more frequent use next year because there will simply be more of it to start the season. Not only does it put the defense on its toes as I mentioned, but it'll give the M's the ability to manufacture more runs than they did this year when the only real hope the team had of scoring runs was hitting the ball over the fence a lot. Speaking of Zunino... it'll be his first full year in the majors next year (fingers crossed) and while I don't expect much speed out of him, he'll have the same opportunity to make hitting adjustments like Franklin has to make. He doesn't have to be a huge improvement over what we've gotten from the catcher position the last few years to be a boost to the offense.

I wouldn't expect to see guys like Michael Saunders or Franklin Gutierrez (assuming he's brought back at all) get starting spots, so Saunders' bat won't be as big a hindrance as it has been this year and you can slide him into a role where he can do much more good for the team, pinch-runner/defensive replacement, which fits in with the team speed part of things.

We didn't see quite the improvement in the offense that we were hoping for this year, obviously, but with the unsettled situations we had this year hopefully becoming more settled next year, we could get a much bigger jump in offensive production from this year to next year than we got from last year to this year.

On the pitching side, the prospects of having a Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Paxton and Walker rotation next year are very exciting. That doesn't even take Hultzen into account. Assuming he comes back healthy next year and ready to go, his is another name you can add to that list. The bullpen is a year-to-year thing for a lot of teams, but I think that if we're able to get Pryor back, replace Wilhelmsen with someone who can consistently locate the strike zone without getting lit up in the process, make Farquhar the closer from the beginning and not have to rely so heavily on the guys that we've had to rely on heavily this year, we could see a vastly improved bullpen next year.

Yes, there are a lot of "ifs" and "buts" and "shoulds" in there, but to me there's a lot more to look forward to next year than we've been able to look forward to for a long, long time. Not everything is going to come together the way I laid it out, but best case scenarios rarely come together for any team. We'll just have to see what happens. I just think that there's a lot more to like about the future than some of you are willing to acknowledge.

 

[wazzu31]

I agree to a point, but in reality we never truly know when 'Too early' is. I just don't believe you can call a guy up who was performing in the minors and then struggles in the majors and then say we called him up too early. Who is to say that if we waited another 2 years before calling the same guy up that he wouldn't struggle still? Confidence is huge, but I think making adjustments is the key after coming up and not being so hard headed as a player by saying 'This worked for me in college so why should I change?'. And I have yet to hear anyone say we brought Seager up too early.

Some players just aren't major league talent. Go find the list of the top college hitters over the past 30 years and a very high percentage of them never make it in the pros or if they do they don't contribute much.

I agree, I wasn't so much talking about this bunch because they doing it right with letting them play. I was mostly refering to all the other players who are successful in the big leagues who were with the M's. Guys like Choo, Jones etc. They get called up to the big leagues with hype but don't perform then they are turned into platoon players. Morrow isn't exactly a star but when you are young you need to be giving a chance before they tweak crap. My big opinion with Ackley is they put in his head so much being a second baseman that it hurt his batting. Now that it's hey we are going to try you in the OF, he isn't a great fielder, isn't bad but isn't great. When you are good at something as a youngster and the organization makes you focus on one thing then you are not as good. Like Jones, Choo and Carp with switching their positions all over.

 

[Logicallylethal]

We all know that the main problem in regards to scoring is hitting with runners in scoring position. We just haven't had enough guys get clutch hits often enough. With that in mind, there are reasons for optimism about this offense next year:

For one thing, we're not going to have an automatic out playing at shortstop next year. I think Miller has a pretty good hold on the spot going into Spring Training and he's shown he's capable of hitting at this level and even hitting for some power. We weren't getting either from Ryan in the few months that he was given to have one more chance to at least hit above the Mendoza line. A full year of Miller is an offensive upgrade.

With Ackley's apparent resurgence at the plate, we really got two possible upgrades in one. His move to the outfield coincided with him finding his swing again and as long as he doesn't have to turn too much of his focus to his defense during the season next year, I would hope that he can continue to hit like he's been hitting since his move out there.

In addition to Ackley's re-found swing, Nick Franklin has shown that he's capable of hitting major league pitching as well. He hasn't done much hitting lately, but he's going to have an opportunity to adjust to how the league is pitching him for the next few weeks and if he shows that he can make those adjustments, he's an upgrade offensively and defensively to what Ackley was a second base.

Morse was expected to provide a lot of offense this year, but what we got from him instead was a lot of time on the DL. You can't say with certainty that whomever we put out there to replace him next year is going to be and stay healthy, and I doubt we'll get the power production from that player that we expected from Morse before his injuries, but assuming that that person does stay healthy all year, there's a good chance that speed will be one of the things he brings to the table that Morse didn't, even if he doesn't bring the homeruns we expected from Morse.

Smoak got off to the kind of start this year that had people wondering why the team kept giving him chances, then he went on the DL. Since he came back, he's been the kind of hitter that we used to only expect to see in September. A full year of him producing at that level can be a big boost to the offense next year.

Another thing that I would expect to see a lot more of next year is the kind of team speed that has been lacking for almost all of this season. Having speed guys in your lineup puts the defense on its toes and gives you more options to score besides hitting the ball over the fence. You're not going to get much speed out of Smoak or Zunino next year, but depending on what happens with Ibanez and Morales this off-season, I would expect to see the team speed put to better and more frequent use next year because there will simply be more of it to start the season. Not only does it put the defense on its toes as I mentioned, but it'll give the M's the ability to manufacture more runs than they did this year when the only real hope the team had of scoring runs was hitting the ball over the fence a lot. Speaking of Zunino... it'll be his first full year in the majors next year (fingers crossed) and while I don't expect much speed out of him, he'll have the same opportunity to make hitting adjustments like Franklin has to make. He doesn't have to be a huge improvement over what we've gotten from the catcher position the last few years to be a boost to the offense.

I wouldn't expect to see guys like Michael Saunders or Franklin Gutierrez (assuming he's brought back at all) get starting spots, so Saunders' bat won't be as big a hindrance as it has been this year and you can slide him into a role where he can do much more good for the team, pinch-runner/defensive replacement, which fits in with the team speed part of things.

We didn't see quite the improvement in the offense that we were hoping for this year, obviously, but with the unsettled situations we had this year hopefully becoming more settled next year, we could get a much bigger jump in offensive production from this year to next year than we got from last year to this year.

On the pitching side, the prospects of having a Felix, Iwakuma, Ramirez, Paxton and Walker rotation next year are very exciting. That doesn't even take Hultzen into account. Assuming he comes back healthy next year and ready to go, his is another name you can add to that list. The bullpen is a year-to-year thing for a lot of teams, but I think that if we're able to get Pryor back, replace Wilhelmsen with someone who can consistently locate the strike zone without getting lit up in the process, make Farquhar the closer from the beginning and not have to rely so heavily on the guys that we've had to rely on heavily this year, we could see a vastly improved bullpen next year.

Yes, there are a lot of "ifs" and "buts" and "shoulds" in there, but to me there's a lot more to look forward to next year than we've been able to look forward to for a long, long time. Not everything is going to come together the way I laid it out, but best case scenarios rarely come together for any team. We'll just have to see what happens. I just think that there's a lot more to like about the future than some of you are willing to acknowledge.

Very well put dude.

A lot of the fans are too caught up with statistics and the w/l in the standings. Of course it's disappointing that we didn't take that next step towards being .500. Of course it's disappointing that we are still ranked near the bottom in runs scored.

But I mean...would we have rather had a .500 season with improved offensive numbers across the board...but have it be done by guys like Morse, Raul, Endy, Morales, etc or a sub .500 season with some young guys injecting some life and optimism into the fan base?

There was a point in the season where I was drinking the koolaid and thought maybe we could have a shot at a miracle 95 playoff run. But once the well for the koolaid ran dry I started focusing primarily on the development of our players.

The games where we would lose but Smoak would have a hr or Ackley would have 2 hits or Miller would have a couple of hits and an rbi...I would be more than satisfied. The only games that I would get mad if we didn't win were the Felix starts. Anything outside of that it's been pretty much whatever to me.

 

[Tapey]

i wont call anything the Mariners do a "rebuild" until the man upstairs is serious about winning/

 

[AceKeptic]

i wont call anything the Mariners do a "rebuild" until the man upstairs is serious about winning/

Agreed. Only until we actually have someone up there who gives a damn, THIS IS NOT REBUILDING.

 

[dude82]

Technically it's rebuilding whether the guys upstairs give a damn or not. Zduriencik rebuilt the talent pool from the ground up. Whether it'll be a successful rebuild or not is a totally different story. The young talent is there, it just needs to be supplemented by the right veteran talent. That's where whether the guys upstairs give a damn comes into play.

 

[cezero]

28th an AVG
29th in ERA
28th in Runs Allowed

The Astros have now scored more runs than the M's.

Rebuilding in Seattle is a myth, plain and simple.

I'll try again next year, but really expect more of the same. Absolutely no reason to expect anything else.

 

[AceKeptic]

We may just overtake Miami for the BA basement yet!