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The Draft!!!!!

mistgl

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It's a little over a week away and I figured it deserved it's own thread!

These are the new rules that went into affect this season.

New Draft system adds intrigue to June event | MLB.com: News

The article doesn't go into what happens if you go over slot in the first 10 rounds. Essentially, any bonus that goes 5% over slot results in the loss of your first round pick next season, and any bonus over 15% results in the loss of your first pick the following season after that.

So 5% = lose one 1R picks
15% = lose two 1R picks

Gonna copy and paste a whole bunch of players that Whenthegiantscometotown has compiled using BA top 200 list, what our pick #'s are, and what we have historically gone after since we actually started taking the draft seriously (Just the 1st 3 rounds, the draft is already a crapshoot and any hits after those is pure luck and/or GREAT scouting)

18. Chris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State. Stratton's name has been rising up draft boards of late. He's got a solid pitcher's frame at 6'2", 200 lbs. His fastball sits at 91-93 but regularly touches 95. His slider is rated as a true plus pitch and he can also mix in a curveball. His season line for 2012 is 10-1, 2.16, 95.2 IP, 19 BB, 115 K's, so you can see that he has strikeout quality stuff with great command. Definitely fits the profile of the type of pitcher the Giants look for.

21. Richie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson. Shaffer is looking like a premiere bat coming out of college. He was projected as a top 2 round pick coming out of HS, but a hamate fracture dropped him to the 25'th round. His batting line this year is a robust .351/.481/.600 with 9 HR's and more walks(47) than K's(39). He is 6'3", 210 lbs so still has some room to fill out his frame. He has the arm strength to play 3B but may move to first and could play either corner OF too.

22. Victor Roache, OF, Georgia Southern. Roache is an internet favorite on the strength of his 30 HR season in 2011. He does have some warts though. He struggled in the Cape Cod League last summer. Then, early this college season he suffered a wrist fracture while diving for a ball that required extensive surgery to repair. This is not a simple hamate fracture! He's going to try to make it back for the Southern Conference Tournament but we'll see. There have been doubts about how his swing would hold up in the pros even before the injury. The Giants are well known to put a lot of stock in the Cape Cod League, so I think Roache is a longshot for the Giants at #20. If they are looking for power with this pick, Shaffer might be much better all around hitter if he's available.

23. Ty Hensley, RHP, Oklahoma HS. Terrific size at 6'5", 220 lbs. Fastball sits at 92-95 and touches 97. His 12 -6 curveball is actually rated higher! Command needs some work. BA mentioned a need to work down in the zone more with the fastball, but I think the Giants like pitchers who work up the zone. If you were to draw up a prototype of the type of pitcher the Giants hunt for in the draft, you would get something that looks a lot like Hensley.

24. Matt Smoral, LHP, Ohio HS. 6'7", 225 lb lefty with a low 3/4 delivery and sweeping arm action reminiscent of Madison Bumgarner. FB is low-mid 90's. Has missed essentially all his senior season with a metatarsal fracture. I could see the Giants being in love with this guy but they might not want to draft somebody they haven't been able to scout because of the injury.

25. Tyler Naquin, OF, Texas A&M. Naquin is a speedy OF who would fit right in with the Giants last two first round picks, Gary Brown and Joe Panik. He is having a fine junior season hitting .397. He has a slender frame and a controlled inside-out approach at the plate, so probably does not have much power potential. His throwing arm is rated as the best among college OF's. He does not play CF on his college team, so some MLB scouts see him as a tweener. While I think he is likely to have an above average MLB career, his ceiling seems very limited and I have to say I would be disappointed if the Giants picked him at #20.

80. Chris Beck, RHP, Georgia Southern. Hard thrower who has had a disappointing junior season. Has thrown in the high 90's but mostly low 90's this season.

81. Pat Light, RHP, Monmouth. 6'6", 200 lbs. FB 90-96. K'd 87 in 86 IP while walking just 12. Level of competition might be a concern.

82. Dylan Baker, RHP, Western Nevada JC. Big body at 6'3", 213 lbs. FB sits 90-95.

83. Onelkis Garcia, LHP, No School. Cuban defector. A bit chunky at 6'2", 220 lbs. FB 90-93.

84. Adrian Sampson, RHP, Bellevue WA JC. Low 90's FB with a plus curveball. Commands 3 pitches.

85. Eddie Butler, RHP, Radford. Smallish at 6'2", 165 lbs. FB sits at about 93 but he can add and subtract 90-96. Has touched 97. Has not been a strikeout pitcher despite the velocity.

86. Chase DeJong, RHP, HS. 6'5" FB 87-93. Has some upside but needs work on his delivery.

87. Brandon Kline, RHP, Virginia. 6'3", 195 lbs. Low 90's FB with some projection in his body. Has had trouble staying on top of his pitches due to a quirk in the way Virginia teaches it's pitchers to deliver the ball.

88. Mason Melotakis, LHP, Northwestern State. FB 94-96, but with a lot of effort that has limited his stamina. Posted a 22/2 K/BB in the Cape Cod League. Might project as a LOOGY with that package.

OK(deep breath). That's a lot of college pitchers to think about. Seems like you could almost put the names in a hat and draw one out. There are some interesting position names in the 90-100 range that the Giants might consider:

89. Brandon Thomas, OF, Georgia Tech. 6'3", 205 lbs. Physical, switch-hitting OF with some speed. Has not played CF at Georgia Tech because Kyle Wren is faster, but most scouts think he could play CF in the pros. Junior season slash line- .359/.471/.549 with 4 HR, 5 3B, 12 SB in 17 attempts. 38 for 44 in SB attempts in college career.

90. Preston Beck, OF, Texas-Arlington. 6'2", 190 lb. Strong armed LH hitter who projects as a RF. Leads Southland Conference in HR's. Excelled in the Cape Cod League before suffering a hip injury.

94. Jeff Gelalich, OF, UCLA. Corner OF has emerged with a terrific junior season. Slash line .376/.460/.546 with 9 HR, 15 SB in 19 attempts.

97. Tony Renda, 2B, Cal. Undersized at 5'8", 173 lbs, but scouts love his ability to hit and his grinder mentality. Limited defensively. Junior slash line: .370/.453/.526 with 5 HR.

99. Trey Williams, 3B, HS. Son of former MLB'er Eddie Williams. Has huge power potential. Was ranked much higher earlier in the cycle, but scouts have noted a lack of energy and intensity this season. Needs to improve pitch recognition. Looks terrific in scouting videos. Not sure he would accept slot money late in round 2.

100. Nick Williams, OF, HS. Even more of a wild card than Trey Williams. Very impressive physical tools but "lacks instincts in all phases of the game." Committed to Texas and will probably go to school if not drafted in the first round. My guess is he turns into a Kevin Keyes type player with Texas which isn't half bad.

106. Martin Agosta, RHP, St Marys. We all know about Agosta. I think most of us would be happy with him in round 2 or 3.

108. Brady Rogers, RHP, Arizona State. A bit undersized and without overpowering stuff, he might be the most polished pitcher in the draft. Classic low ceiling/high floor guy with good command of a 4 pitch arsenal. Again, a solid pick in either round 2 or 3.

109. Kyle Hansen, RHP, St. John's. 6'8" with a low-mid 90's fastball. Shaky secondary stuff makes some scouts project him for the bullpen.

113. Fernando Perez, 3B, Central Arizona JC. Intriguing prospect. GED'd out of HS early to play in a JC wood bat league. Slash line of .338/.399/.571. Hits LH.

117. Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech. Big solid frame at 6'3", 228 lbs. FB 88-95 with a solid changeup and decent breaking ball. I'm a bit surprised to see BA rank him this low.

118. Kenny Diekroger, 2B, Stanford. Former HS phenom. Has seen his stock slip at Stanford. Isn't there something Stanford teaches that ruins hitters? His main attraction right now is versatility as he could probably play passably at every position except CF, C, P. We know John Barr loves to draft former phenoms whose stock has dropped.

119. Austin Maddox, RHP, Florida. 2 way player who will likely be drafted as a pitcher. I could see the Giants loving his 6'3", 235 lb frame and mid-90's fastball. Could be a fast riser as a reliever or a future starter as a project.

120. Brett Mooneyham, LHP, Stanford. Another former HS phenom, Has had a checkered career at Stanford. Great size at 6'5", 215 lbs with a low 90's fastball and a nice breaking ball. Has command issues at times.

121. Alex Bregman, 2B, HS. OK, Alex Bregman fans, here's your guy! Scrappy little guy with an impressive hit tool. The fact that he's a second baseman out of HS tells you something though. Committed to LSU and might be a tough sign, especially if he falls this far.

122. Damien Magnifico, RHP, Oklahoma. Radar gun star. Velocity has not translated into results. Siginificant injury history. Draft eligible soph makes him tougher to sign.
 

MarcoPolo

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The article doesn't go into what happens if you go over slot in the first 10 rounds. Essentially, any bonus that goes 5% over slot results in the loss of your first round pick next season, and any bonus over 15% results in the loss of your first pick the following season after that.

Just to be uber clear. In the past people have referred to "slot" and "over slot" as referring to what MLB thought a particular *single pick* should be paid.

The new rules designate a *total amount* for each team for the first 10 rounds, and spending more than that (total, for the first 10 rounds) will result in penalties. So a team could spend (say) $9M for their first pick, and $100K for the next nine picks and not be penalized.
 

mistgl

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Just to be uber clear. In the past people have referred to "slot" and "over slot" as referring to what MLB thought a particular *single pick* should be paid.

The new rules designate a *total amount* for each team for the first 10 rounds, and spending more than that (total, for the first 10 rounds) will result in penalties. So a team could spend (say) $9M for their first pick, and $100K for the next nine picks and not be penalized.


There are still 'slot amounts' and like I said, if you go over it by more than 5% and 15% then you are penalized first round picks in the following drafts.

For example our pick is slotted at $1,850,000, 26% of what the Astros have to spend on the first pick, which is $7,200,000. If we go over that 1,850,000 by more than 5%, kiss next years first rounder good bye. The example you listed is something they're trying to avoid entirely, hence the penalties.

This whole thing is something that will probably never affect us, cause we have been one of the teams that actually follows what the MLB suggest bonus $$$$$ should be. We rarely, if ever, go for the high risk/high upside guys outside of the 1st, 1S, and 2nd rounds. We already draft a crap ton of college relief arms in the 4-10 rounds (they're cheap to sign), which is one strategies teams will use spread money around.

This whole system was spearheaded by the big market owners to cripple team like the Rays, Royals, Pirates, Nats, A's ect... who spend tons of over slot money to sign guys that fell due to bonus demands - Perfect example is the Pirates giving Josh Bell 5mil in the second round last year.
 

calsnowskier

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FYI...

Whenthegiantscometotown = DrB
 

dredinis21

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Still love me some Ty Hensley though. When you throw in the high 90's and your SECONDARY pitch is rated higher then your fastball, that is a HS pitcher that you take the time to develop, something I say in full confidence because of the Giants track record in that given subject.

Other then him, the only other name that stuck out (probably with Brandon Crawford being a product of this line of thinking) was the prospect of drafting a guy like Diekroger, a guy whose stock is down but has tremendous upside...and is versatile to boot.
 

tzill

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I like Heaney if he falls...not sure that will happen though.
 

MarcoPolo

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There are still 'slot amounts' and like I said, if you go over it by more than 5% and 15% then you are penalized first round picks in the following drafts.

Do you have a link to support this? Everything I have read talks about going over the total bonus POOL, not individual picks. Yes, the "pool" is determined by adding up the "slot amounts" for each of the team's picks, but penalties are based on total spending, not individual picks.

Here's my link to support my position (from MLB.com) :

mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf


Edit - here's the relevant text :

3. Signing Bonus Pools
A. Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft. For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft. Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess of $100,000 will count against the Pool.
B. Clubs that exceed their Signing Bonus Pools will be subject to penalties as follows:
 
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mistgl

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Do you have a link to support this? Everything I have read talks about going over the total bonus POOL, not individual picks. Yes, the "pool" is determined by adding up the "slot amounts" for each of the team's picks, but penalties are based on total spending, not individual picks.

Here's my link to support my position (from MLB.com) :

mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/2011_CBA.pdf


Edit - here's the relevant text :

3. Signing Bonus Pools
A. Each Club will be assigned an aggregate Signing Bonus Pool prior to each draft. For the purpose of calculating the Signing Bonus Pools, each pick in the first 10 rounds of the draft has been assigned a value. (These values will grow each year with the rate of growth of industry revenue.) A Club’s Signing Bonus Pool equals the sum of the values of that Club’s selections in the first 10 rounds of the draft. Players selected after the 10th round do not count against a Club’s Signing Bonus Pool if they receive bonuses up to $100,000. Any amounts paid in excess of $100,000 will count against the Pool.
B. Clubs that exceed their Signing Bonus Pools will be subject to penalties as follows:

I'm Quoting a BA piece, but I may have understood it wrong. There are definitely slot recommended amounts to be spent per pick, but the penalties may only kick in if you exceed your pool for the first ten rounds?

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Ask BA
 

SFAnthem

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Great idea, mist. Thanks! 1,000 rep bucks to your account

Allows casual draft followers like me to make instant judgements on players I've never even heard of before.

"How could they pass up xxxxx in the first round? Idiots!"
-and-
"Total reach, has Sabes lost it?"

:lm:
 
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mistgl

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Still love me some Ty Hensley though. When you throw in the high 90's and your SECONDARY pitch is rated higher then your fastball, that is a HS pitcher that you take the time to develop, something I say in full confidence because of the Giants track record in that given subject.

Other then him, the only other name that stuck out (probably with Brandon Crawford being a product of this line of thinking) was the prospect of drafting a guy like Diekroger, a guy whose stock is down but has tremendous upside...and is versatile to boot.

LOVE Hensley! Exactly the kind of prep arm this team loves to develop.

If he's there at 20, then I want him, but I'd be fine Smoral too. He was a top 15 pick easily before he broke his foot on a foul ball in BP.

With the way the new rules are, I want one of the top tier prep arms with our first pick. If those are all gone come 20, then Stratton or Shaffer.

After the 3rd round, I fully expect the FO to have it's annual love affair with college relief arms in rounds 4-10.
 

MarcoPolo

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I'm Quoting a BA piece, but I may have understood it wrong. There are definitely slot recommended amounts to be spent per pick, but the penalties may only kick in if you exceed your pool for the first ten rounds?

BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Ask BA

From the BA article :

Teams can shift money around within their pools, but there's no easy way to create extra cash.

If a club doesn't sign a choice in the first 10 rounds, the value of his pick disappears from its pool. So if a team wants to pay one player more than his pick value, it has to save money elsewhere.
 
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