Strength of Schedule with a Twist

[averagejoe]

Many of us agree that Strength of Schedule rankings may be interesting to look at, but the reality is that they may not factor into fantasy football player rankings very much unless you're considering a D/ST with a soft schedule.

And when some fantasy owners do their homework, they may look at players "in a perfect world." In other words, if the entire team clicks on all cylinders, this is what we can expect from player X.

But we know that the NFL is not like that. Some NFL teams will have problems. Problems with opponents. Problems winning games. Problems scoring.

What if we ranked the success of an NFL team based on these categories?

Opponents
I went to a Las Vegas site that measures the odds that an NFL team will win the Super Bowl. But this particular site incorporated this probability and applied to the current schedule of all NFL teams. If your team plays more Super Bowl-bound teams, then your team has a tougher road to hoe and drops in the overall rank.

Wins
On another Las Vegas site it listed the odds for each NFL team winning games. This one was easy. Teams that are predicted to win more games have a higher ranking. Plus you figure that Las Vegas doesn't create odds so they can lose money.

Scoring
SB Nation had an interesting stat and was nice enough to put it in a chart. They called it the "point differential." This is how they described it:

The Steelers face 16 opponents in 2015 who had a positive combined points differential in 2014 of +512 points. Bringing up the rear are the Falcons, whose 2015 opponents combined for a -595 points differential this year. Of course, if you get to face the Buccaneers (-133) twice, and also have the Redskins (-137), Jaguars (-163), and Titans (-184) on your schedule, those numbers start adding up quickly.

In other words, the Steelers face some heavy metal scoring machines, while the Falcons feast on some easy prey.

So I went ahead and ranked all 3 categories, then took the overall average. Here's how it breaks down from best to worst:

8.7 - Seahawks
9.3 - Packers
10.0 - Cowboys
10.7 - Lions
12.0 - Patriots
12.3 - Giants and Eagles
13.3 - Falcons, Texans, and Colts
13.7 - Broncos and Ravens
14.0 - Bills and Saints
14.3 - Panthers
14.7 - Cardinals
------------------- (half)
15.0 - Chargers
15.7 - Dolphins and Steelers
17.3 - Vikings
17.7 - Redskins
18.3 - Bengals
18.7 - Bears, Chiefs, and Rams
19.0 - 49ers
19.3 - Browns
20.7 - Buccaneers
21.7 - Jaguars
22.3 - Titans
24.0 - Raiders

So how am I supposed to use this ranking?

Well, just know that if you are targeting players from the top half, those players may project as advertised. They may be on good offensive scoring teams, and play against weaker and TD-challenged opponents.

But beware of players whose teams are on the bottom half. They may have increasingly difficult challenges as the rank descends. Their own teams may not be good, and they may be playing against some juggernauts that can disrupt their game plan. Or even create a yardage/scoring drought.

Did I loose anyone with this explanation?​

 

[TKOSpikes]

I love your thinking Joe.

I think it makes a lot of fantasy sense for DST. Looking at your rankings here, that obviously isn't the case.

Offensively, I tend to lean more at "playoff opponents", or September opponents. Referring to Chef's schedule grid, I notice the Falcons to have an interesting schedule ad to they should put up points! The Dolphins have SIX fantasy home games, but the QB's they'll face in the first six games are RG3, Bortles, Bills, Jets, BYE, Mariota, Texans. That's a pretty good start.

Cowboys tough playoff schedule. ...NYJ and Buf.