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Steele: Projecting the SEC standings
Alabama is the favorite to bring home another national title, but the Crimson Tide will have competition in the SEC.
Here are Phil Steele's projections for the final standings for the SEC:
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has lost at least one SEC game in eight of the past nine years, but even with just three starters back on defense, the Crimson Tide are No. 50 on my experience chart. I have them favored by a touchdown or more in all their games and expect a 12-0 regular season. Last season, the Tide won the big rematch with Clemson; Alabama may have a national title-game rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game this season.
2. Auburn Tigers
Last year Auburn hosted two No. 1 teams in a three-week span and upset both Georgia and Alabama in Jordan-Hare Stadium to get to the SEC title game. This year, the Tigers drop from No. 7 to No. 70 on my experience chart and have to face Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State on the road, and Washington at a neutral site. Auburn did have two net close losses and was plus-153.1 yards per game in SEC games, but the Tigers will have to be road warriors to repeat as SEC West champions.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Last year Mississippi State was No. 86 on my experience chart and had to replace all four defensive line starters, but that unit performed well above expectations and the Bulldogs finished higher than I expected at 4-4 in the SEC (going from minus-56.8 yards per game to plus-41.9 in SEC play). A depleted Mississippi State roster and coaching staff still beat Lamar Jackson and Louisville in their bowl game. This year the Bulldogs have 17 returning starters and jump to No. 5 on my experience chart. They have an easier schedule than Auburn and get the Tigers at home; most of my power ratings have Mississippi State finishing second. As usual, I underrate the Bulldogs, this time mostly due to a first-year head coach.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
Jimbo Fisher steps into a pretty good situation. Texas A&M has 16 returning starters and is No. 22 on my experience chart. The Aggies are solid on both the offensive and defensive lines and are more experienced at quarterback. The schedule isn't easy -- they face both Alabama and Clemson in the first four weeks and later travel to Mississippi State and Auburn in back-to-back weeks -- but I think Fisher will get the most out of this team.
5. LSU Tigers
LSU was 6-2 in SEC play in 2017 and was only No. 95 on my experience chart. This year LSU drops to No. 129 on the experience chart and hosts Alabama and Georgia, meaning a lot of toss-up games (like Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M) are on the road. Ohio State transfer quarterback Joe Burrow is a solid addition for the offense, but the Tigers are changing schemes again and lose talented running back Derrius Guice. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will have a solid defense and there is a lot of pressure on head coach Ed Orgeron to win this year.
6. Arkansas Razorbacks
While I have the Razorbacks way down here at No. 6 in the West, the Hogs are not in a rebuilding year despite some major scheme changes on both offense and defense (as well as a new head coach). The Hogs go from No. 90 on my experience chart up to No. 46, have a very manageable schedule with just three SEC road games and could be favored in seven or eight games this year if they start the season strong.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
Matt Luke did a good job keeping together a reeling team that fired its coach after spring and had a two-year bowl probation, finishing 6-6 despite being minus-70.4 yards per game in SEC play. This year the Rebels go from No. 106 on my experience chart to No. 63, but play four of the SEC's top teams at home, meaning their most winnable games are on the road. They have a potent offense, but the defense is questionable.
East
1. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were just 4-4 in the SEC in Kirby Smart's first year, but thanks to a defense that had 10 returning starters and two highly talented running backs (first- and second-round NFL draft picks) they went 7-1 last season and were plus-169.1 yards per game. Their postseason was impressive: beating No. 4 Auburn in the SEC title game, No. 2 Oklahoma in the playoffs and just losing in overtime to Alabama in the national championship after leading 13-0 at the half. The Dawgs go from No. 13 on my experience chart to No. 80, but my power ratings have them favored in every game and that could set up an amazing national title-game rematch in the SEC title game between a pair of 12-0 teams.
2. Florida Gators
The Gators looked poised to win their third straight SEC East title last year but lost their starting running back and top wide receiver plus eight others to suspension prior to the year. They did not know if they were coming back the first month, and then they were gone. Florida at one point was down 28 scholarship players with all the injuries and fired its head coach by the end of the year. This year Florida has 19 returning starters, plus some of those suspended players are back and the Gators jump to No. 4 on my experience chart. Head coach Dan Mullen always got the most out of the talent he had at Mississippi State and will look like a genius this season piloting my No. 1 most improved team.
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
Will Muschamp had perhaps the least talented team in the SEC East in 2016, but got to a bowl game. Last year South Carolina was minus-16.5 yards per game in SEC play, yet got to second place in the East at 5-3 and won nine games overall despite losing its top playmaker in wide receiver/kick returner Deebo Samuel after three starts and its top running back after four starts. This is Muschamp's most talented team yet, and I look for significant improvement in the yards per game. South Carolina hosts Georgia in Week 2, and a weaker South Carolina team played a stronger Georgia team tough on the road last year. It would not surprise me if Muschamp surpassed my expectations once again this season.
4. Missouri Tigers
Missouri is a great bully as the past two years the Tigers averaged 56.8 points per game versus non-Power 5 teams (or Power 5 teams not in a bowl) and just 20 points per game when facing a Power 5 team that played in a bowl. Last year they were 7-0 vs. teams with losing records (combined record of 27-55 in 2017), but 0-6 vs. teams with a winning record. This is head coach Barry Odom's best team, quarterback Drew Lock is back and Missouri faces only five or six teams that I project for a bowl this year. Look for the Tigers to play better against the big boys and have an overall solid season.
5. Kentucky Wildcats
Rich Brooks got Kentucky to a bowl each of his last four years as they beat the teams they were favored against and pulled one or two upsets each year. Mark Stoops has three non-bowl years, although Kentucky got back to that bowl-game formula with three upsets in '16 and two more last year. The defense's top three players turned down the NFL and the offense has running back Benny Snell and a veteran offensive line. The Wildcats may be favored in only four games and they dropped to No. 99 on my experience chart, but they have the benefit of two years of bowl practices.
6. Tennessee Volunteers
Butch Jones was on the hot seat last year, and after a 2-1 start this team had a total of 58 starts lost to injury. The Vols were a mess down the stretch, at times starting four freshman offensive linemen and third-string quarterbacks, and were led by interim head coach Brady Hoke. Jones did recruit some talent and first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt will do a good job of building a new attitude and hopefully keeping the team healthier. A big November could have the Volunteers flirting with a bowl at the end of the season.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
I look at the SEC numbers and Vanderbilt lost by an average of 22.8 points per game, going 1-7, but was actually 5-7 overall on the year; the Commodores beat Kansas State, and Vanderbilt's minus-124.3 yards per game in SEC play was only third worst. Vanderbilt has a veteran QB in Kyle Shurmur and five starters back on the offensive line with Illinois transfer Ke'Shawn Vaughn at running back. Fifth-year head coach Derek Mason had done wonders with the Commodores' defense prior to last season and is still a great defensive mind. Despite those factors, my power ratings have Vanderbilt at the bottom of the SEC East.
Alabama is the favorite to bring home another national title, but the Crimson Tide will have competition in the SEC.
Here are Phil Steele's projections for the final standings for the SEC:
Editor's note: This article was adapted from Phil Steele's college football preview magazine, which is available here.
West
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama has lost at least one SEC game in eight of the past nine years, but even with just three starters back on defense, the Crimson Tide are No. 50 on my experience chart. I have them favored by a touchdown or more in all their games and expect a 12-0 regular season. Last season, the Tide won the big rematch with Clemson; Alabama may have a national title-game rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game this season.
2. Auburn Tigers
Last year Auburn hosted two No. 1 teams in a three-week span and upset both Georgia and Alabama in Jordan-Hare Stadium to get to the SEC title game. This year, the Tigers drop from No. 7 to No. 70 on my experience chart and have to face Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State on the road, and Washington at a neutral site. Auburn did have two net close losses and was plus-153.1 yards per game in SEC games, but the Tigers will have to be road warriors to repeat as SEC West champions.
3. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Last year Mississippi State was No. 86 on my experience chart and had to replace all four defensive line starters, but that unit performed well above expectations and the Bulldogs finished higher than I expected at 4-4 in the SEC (going from minus-56.8 yards per game to plus-41.9 in SEC play). A depleted Mississippi State roster and coaching staff still beat Lamar Jackson and Louisville in their bowl game. This year the Bulldogs have 17 returning starters and jump to No. 5 on my experience chart. They have an easier schedule than Auburn and get the Tigers at home; most of my power ratings have Mississippi State finishing second. As usual, I underrate the Bulldogs, this time mostly due to a first-year head coach.
4. Texas A&M Aggies
Jimbo Fisher steps into a pretty good situation. Texas A&M has 16 returning starters and is No. 22 on my experience chart. The Aggies are solid on both the offensive and defensive lines and are more experienced at quarterback. The schedule isn't easy -- they face both Alabama and Clemson in the first four weeks and later travel to Mississippi State and Auburn in back-to-back weeks -- but I think Fisher will get the most out of this team.
5. LSU Tigers
LSU was 6-2 in SEC play in 2017 and was only No. 95 on my experience chart. This year LSU drops to No. 129 on the experience chart and hosts Alabama and Georgia, meaning a lot of toss-up games (like Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M) are on the road. Ohio State transfer quarterback Joe Burrow is a solid addition for the offense, but the Tigers are changing schemes again and lose talented running back Derrius Guice. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda will have a solid defense and there is a lot of pressure on head coach Ed Orgeron to win this year.
6. Arkansas Razorbacks
While I have the Razorbacks way down here at No. 6 in the West, the Hogs are not in a rebuilding year despite some major scheme changes on both offense and defense (as well as a new head coach). The Hogs go from No. 90 on my experience chart up to No. 46, have a very manageable schedule with just three SEC road games and could be favored in seven or eight games this year if they start the season strong.
7. Ole Miss Rebels
Matt Luke did a good job keeping together a reeling team that fired its coach after spring and had a two-year bowl probation, finishing 6-6 despite being minus-70.4 yards per game in SEC play. This year the Rebels go from No. 106 on my experience chart to No. 63, but play four of the SEC's top teams at home, meaning their most winnable games are on the road. They have a potent offense, but the defense is questionable.
East
1. Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were just 4-4 in the SEC in Kirby Smart's first year, but thanks to a defense that had 10 returning starters and two highly talented running backs (first- and second-round NFL draft picks) they went 7-1 last season and were plus-169.1 yards per game. Their postseason was impressive: beating No. 4 Auburn in the SEC title game, No. 2 Oklahoma in the playoffs and just losing in overtime to Alabama in the national championship after leading 13-0 at the half. The Dawgs go from No. 13 on my experience chart to No. 80, but my power ratings have them favored in every game and that could set up an amazing national title-game rematch in the SEC title game between a pair of 12-0 teams.
2. Florida Gators
The Gators looked poised to win their third straight SEC East title last year but lost their starting running back and top wide receiver plus eight others to suspension prior to the year. They did not know if they were coming back the first month, and then they were gone. Florida at one point was down 28 scholarship players with all the injuries and fired its head coach by the end of the year. This year Florida has 19 returning starters, plus some of those suspended players are back and the Gators jump to No. 4 on my experience chart. Head coach Dan Mullen always got the most out of the talent he had at Mississippi State and will look like a genius this season piloting my No. 1 most improved team.
3. South Carolina Gamecocks
Will Muschamp had perhaps the least talented team in the SEC East in 2016, but got to a bowl game. Last year South Carolina was minus-16.5 yards per game in SEC play, yet got to second place in the East at 5-3 and won nine games overall despite losing its top playmaker in wide receiver/kick returner Deebo Samuel after three starts and its top running back after four starts. This is Muschamp's most talented team yet, and I look for significant improvement in the yards per game. South Carolina hosts Georgia in Week 2, and a weaker South Carolina team played a stronger Georgia team tough on the road last year. It would not surprise me if Muschamp surpassed my expectations once again this season.
4. Missouri Tigers
Missouri is a great bully as the past two years the Tigers averaged 56.8 points per game versus non-Power 5 teams (or Power 5 teams not in a bowl) and just 20 points per game when facing a Power 5 team that played in a bowl. Last year they were 7-0 vs. teams with losing records (combined record of 27-55 in 2017), but 0-6 vs. teams with a winning record. This is head coach Barry Odom's best team, quarterback Drew Lock is back and Missouri faces only five or six teams that I project for a bowl this year. Look for the Tigers to play better against the big boys and have an overall solid season.
5. Kentucky Wildcats
Rich Brooks got Kentucky to a bowl each of his last four years as they beat the teams they were favored against and pulled one or two upsets each year. Mark Stoops has three non-bowl years, although Kentucky got back to that bowl-game formula with three upsets in '16 and two more last year. The defense's top three players turned down the NFL and the offense has running back Benny Snell and a veteran offensive line. The Wildcats may be favored in only four games and they dropped to No. 99 on my experience chart, but they have the benefit of two years of bowl practices.
6. Tennessee Volunteers
Butch Jones was on the hot seat last year, and after a 2-1 start this team had a total of 58 starts lost to injury. The Vols were a mess down the stretch, at times starting four freshman offensive linemen and third-string quarterbacks, and were led by interim head coach Brady Hoke. Jones did recruit some talent and first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt will do a good job of building a new attitude and hopefully keeping the team healthier. A big November could have the Volunteers flirting with a bowl at the end of the season.
7. Vanderbilt Commodores
I look at the SEC numbers and Vanderbilt lost by an average of 22.8 points per game, going 1-7, but was actually 5-7 overall on the year; the Commodores beat Kansas State, and Vanderbilt's minus-124.3 yards per game in SEC play was only third worst. Vanderbilt has a veteran QB in Kyle Shurmur and five starters back on the offensive line with Illinois transfer Ke'Shawn Vaughn at running back. Fifth-year head coach Derek Mason had done wonders with the Commodores' defense prior to last season and is still a great defensive mind. Despite those factors, my power ratings have Vanderbilt at the bottom of the SEC East.
