Steelers @ Bengals: Game Thread

[flamingrey]

Might as well kick it off now.

Winds expected to be between 20-25 mph.

We can expect a lot of running tomorrow:

Bengals average 3.7 ypc (28th)
Steelers average 4.3 ypc (16th)

Bengals allow 3.3 ypc (1st)
Steelers allow 4.2 ypc (12th)

On pass plays, the wind factor will likely take away any advantage Ben has of escaping the pocket and finding a receiver down field. At best I believe Ben will be left with running for a couple yards or finding a checkdown. Anything downfield and the wind will probably grab it.

Weather Factor Favor: Bengals

 

[flamingrey]

Doug, it would be nice if you can find the stats that show each team's opponent's cumulative ypc average and ypc allowed, so we can determine the true value of the rushing stats above.

 

[futballiscool]

"Weather Factor Favor: Bengals"


I see your rationale, but I've always thought bad weather conditions favor a broken play QB. scarmbling, pump fakes etc means throws won't have to be percise, just thrown to a general area

 

[flamingrey]

That's very true. I could be wrong, but I believe those big plays Ben hits aren't necessarily on broken plays where a receiver will be wide open with nobody within 10+ yards of him, but rather plays where a receiver might have 2-3 steps on his defender from the defender having to chase him passed the first couple routes.

Again I could be wrong, but at the very least it won't be AS advantageous, but it will be at least somewhat helpful. Hence, maybe not as much as I previously thought, but still favor for the Bengals. But that said, I'm waiting for Doug to post his opponents played running game statistics. That could still tip the scales into Pittsburgh's favor.

 

[flamingrey]

Aha! Now I got your point.

The bad weather will hinder our passing game more than it will the Steeler's passing game.

Point taken. While it'll help mitigate one of Pittsburgh's biggest weapons, it won't hurt them as much as it will us.

Favor: slight lean towards Pittsburgh

 

[CrashDavisSports]

On shorter plays (within < 20 yards), I would have to imagine it favors the broken play QB. Deep passes will be gone, because deep passes on the run typically are HIGH floaters to a location for a WR to run under. Those plays will be obsolete with that much wind.

Expect a lot of roll outs, quick hitches, crossing. You will see few out patterns because 20-25 mph winds will carry that ball more either back in bounds or further out of bounds. And on the sideline, if a pass floats or carries back towards the coverage, that is a pick 6 typically as there is no one fast enough typically in the offensive backfield to catch up to a streaking CB down the sideline.

Lots of runs, creative plays underneath, quick passes, high percentage passes (HB and WR screens), TE and RB over the middle. One longer necessary players, WR's crossing patterns.

The wind favors Roethlisberger, but the need to play short and quick due to wind favors the Bengals WCO and receivers (Gresham, Leonard, Scott).

If the wind is at Roethlisbergers back, look out for Wallace and Brown.

 

[bengaldoug]

Doug, it would be nice if you can find the stats that show each team's opponent's cumulative ypc average and ypc allowed, so we can determine the true value of the rushing stats above.

Bengals rushing offense 3.7 ypc vs opponents giving up 4.0 ypc
Steelers rushing defense 4.2 ypc vs opponents averaging 4.0 ypc

Steelers rushing offense 4.3 ypc vs opponents giving up 3.9 ypc
Bengals rushing defense 3.3 ypc vs opponents averaging 4.2 ypc

League median is 4.3 ypc

Using the league median as a base starting point

Steelers project to 4.3-0.9+0.4=3.8ypc
Bengals project to 4.3-0.3+0.2=4.2ypc

Slight edge to Bengals

 

[bengaldoug]

Incidentally, when using opponents stats and looking at points per game this game looks dead even with homefield the only difference....question is, who is really the home team? The crowd figures to be 50/50 at least.....

 

[Skinnyfats]

Dunlop is out today. Hope the rest of the guys can step it up.

The NFL Inactives Report

 

[bengaldoug]

League median is 45.4 ppg
Median score is 24.2 home, 21.2 visitor

Pittsburgh scoring 21.8 ppg vs opponents giving up 21.5 ppg (+0.3)
Bengs giving up 17.5 ppg vs opponents scoring 18.9 ppg (-1.4)

Steelers projected score 21.2+0.3-1.4=20.1 points

Bengals scoring 24.4 ppg vs opponents giving up 22.7ppg (+1.7)
Stillers giving up 18.0 ppg vs opponents scoring 20.8 ppg (-2.8)

Bengals projected score 24.2+1.7-2.8=23.1

So if the Bengals truly deserve a 3 point home advantage, the final score should be something like 23-20 Bengals.......

 

[Servo]

Dunlop is out today. Hope the rest of the guys can step it up.

The NFL Inactives Report

Dunlap is a big loss as he's the guy that makes this D go IMO. That being said the Steelers are down Woodley. Luckily there is enough depth on the D-line to where losing Dunlap isnt catostrophic but he is the playmaker on that D...Suppsoed to be pretty strong winds which I think favors the Bengals...hopefully that effects the Steelers deep game somewhat

 

[bengaldoug]

Dunlop is out today. Hope the rest of the guys can step it up.

The NFL Inactives Report

Gresham, Lee, Jones are all inactive too.....we're in deep doo doo at tight end....

 

[vancelot23]

I hate seeing Dunlap out. He hasn't gotten the sacks, but he's consistently collapsing the pocket, allowing other guys to get sacks.

 

[BigBlueNation111]

WHO DEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[futballiscool]

Dunlap is a huge loss...

biggest playmaker on D. but with the depth on the DL I think they'll survive as long as it's just a week or two

 

[BigBlueNation111]

I hate seeing Dunlap out. He hasn't gotten the sacks, but he's consistently collapsing the pocket, allowing other guys to get sacks.

I agree,but we'll see who steps up today and takes that leadership role.

 

[bengaldoug]

I hate going into this game with only Colin Cochart at tight end.....

 

[BigBlueNation111]

I hate going into this game with only Colin Cochart at tight end.....

How much longer till we get Gresham back full strength..?

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Gresham, Lee, Jones are all inactive too.....we're in deep doo doo at tight end....

Dunlap and Lee are inactive, but Gresham is available to play.

 

[BigBlueNation111]

Dunlap and Lee are inactive, but Gresham is available to play.

.............