- Thread starter
- #1
tlance
Kyrie Hater
- 40,579
- 20,991
- 1,033
- Joined
- Apr 17, 2013
- Location
- Virginia
- Hoopla Cash
- $ 11,700.00
- Fav. Team #1
- Fav. Team #2
- Fav. Team #3
Pitching in fantasy baseball can be hard to evaluate. What makes a pitcher an asset to your fantasy team? The answer is not so simple. This column will address format differences and how they affect the values of starting pitchers.
This piece was inspired by a seemingly simple question from BKSballer regarding the value of Bronson Arroyo. The not so simple answer is that it depends entirely on your format. In some leagues, he is an asset, while in others he is waiver fodder. Here are a few things that will affect the value of your SP:
-Do you change line-ups daily or weekly?
-Is your league head to head, or roto?
-If in a points league, how does your league reward pitching? (Some are skewed towards hitting, others towards pitching)
-Does your league have an innings limit or an innings minimum?
To answer this question, I will look at two very different formats to illustrate how different a solid starter like Arroyo’s value can be. First, without looking at any underlying peripherals, here are Arroyo’s key stats from last year and the initial stages of this year:
2012- (32 starts)
IP- 202
W- 12
ERA- 3.74
WHIP- 1.21
K’s- 129
2013 (5 starts) small sample, but nothing to make us think 2013 will be much different than 2012
IP- 34
W- 2
ERA- 4.24
WHIP- 1.09
K’s- 18
Arroyo is a pitcher who gives you pretty neutral ERA and WHIP. He isn’t really helping or hurting here. He does not strike out many batters (.62 per inning, or 5.6 per 9 over his past 37 starts). In other words, he can give you a few wins without hurting ERA or WHIP and without helping in K’s, except in weekly leagues in 2 start weeks.
Next, we will take a look at two different formats and determine whether or not Arroyo is an asset. First up is a weekly change, head to head 5x5 category league.
In this particular format, pitchers like Arroyo are really good options to round out a pitching staff. SP depth is crucial in weekly leagues so that owners are able to take advantage of 2 start weeks and good match-ups.
Also bolstering SP value here is the fact that non-closing relievers are almost unplayable in these leagues. Although elite set-up men like Kenley Jansen will finish the season with great looking stat lines, these guys are unlikely to earn any wins or saves in the small sample size of any given week. When pitching an average of 3 innings, the average week would look something like this:
3 IP, 0 W, 0 S, 5 K, 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP
While this line isn’t hurting you, it isn’t helping you much either. You would be much better served to get a line like this from a 2 start guy like Arroyo:
12 IP, 1 W, 8 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
In weeks where Arroyo has 1 start, you bench him unless the match-up is very favorable, but it is easy to see why he would be valuable in this format.
Now, in contrast, let’s look at a 5x5 roto league with a seasonal innings limit of 1400 and daily line-up changes. With a 1400 inning limit, teams will generally use 5-6 SPs depending on how many RPs they start.
In this format, non-closing RPs like Kenley are extremely valuable. The reason is simple. They will help your team with an elite K rate, a positive ERA and WHIP, and over the course of 162 games, they will pick up a handful of wins and saves also. In daily change leagues, you can leave these RPs in your line-up every day and rotate starters through on nights where they pitch.
The combination of increased RP value along with the seasonal innings cap really changes what you need from an SP in order for him to help your team. Also, keep in mind that the innings cap changes the K category a great deal. Any manager who is paying attention will make sure that their team gets to, or within a few innings of the max. This category, in essence, turns into K/9 because of the cap.
Knowing what we do, let’s take another look at Arroyo through the lens of a different format:
Arroyo is neutral in ERA and WHIP and he will help in wins, but he actually hurts your team badly in Ks. If you were to employ too many SPs with K rates as low as Arroyo’s, you will surely finish at the bottom of the K category. Some pitchers, like Kyle Lohse and Jered Weaver may make up for the low K rate with strong ERA and WHIP, but Arroyo does not really help us here either.
For every player like Arroyo that you take on, you would need a Darvish or a Samardzija to make up for lost ground in Ks. Does that seem like a good way to use a roster spot in this format?
In summary, your ace pitchers are always going to be valuable. For fringe guys like Arroyo, their value is entirely dependent on the specifics of your league. Get to know the ins and outs so that you can take advantage of your league’s format and get a leg up on the competition.
This piece was inspired by a seemingly simple question from BKSballer regarding the value of Bronson Arroyo. The not so simple answer is that it depends entirely on your format. In some leagues, he is an asset, while in others he is waiver fodder. Here are a few things that will affect the value of your SP:
-Do you change line-ups daily or weekly?
-Is your league head to head, or roto?
-If in a points league, how does your league reward pitching? (Some are skewed towards hitting, others towards pitching)
-Does your league have an innings limit or an innings minimum?
To answer this question, I will look at two very different formats to illustrate how different a solid starter like Arroyo’s value can be. First, without looking at any underlying peripherals, here are Arroyo’s key stats from last year and the initial stages of this year:
2012- (32 starts)
IP- 202
W- 12
ERA- 3.74
WHIP- 1.21
K’s- 129
2013 (5 starts) small sample, but nothing to make us think 2013 will be much different than 2012
IP- 34
W- 2
ERA- 4.24
WHIP- 1.09
K’s- 18
Arroyo is a pitcher who gives you pretty neutral ERA and WHIP. He isn’t really helping or hurting here. He does not strike out many batters (.62 per inning, or 5.6 per 9 over his past 37 starts). In other words, he can give you a few wins without hurting ERA or WHIP and without helping in K’s, except in weekly leagues in 2 start weeks.
Next, we will take a look at two different formats and determine whether or not Arroyo is an asset. First up is a weekly change, head to head 5x5 category league.
In this particular format, pitchers like Arroyo are really good options to round out a pitching staff. SP depth is crucial in weekly leagues so that owners are able to take advantage of 2 start weeks and good match-ups.
Also bolstering SP value here is the fact that non-closing relievers are almost unplayable in these leagues. Although elite set-up men like Kenley Jansen will finish the season with great looking stat lines, these guys are unlikely to earn any wins or saves in the small sample size of any given week. When pitching an average of 3 innings, the average week would look something like this:
3 IP, 0 W, 0 S, 5 K, 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP
While this line isn’t hurting you, it isn’t helping you much either. You would be much better served to get a line like this from a 2 start guy like Arroyo:
12 IP, 1 W, 8 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
In weeks where Arroyo has 1 start, you bench him unless the match-up is very favorable, but it is easy to see why he would be valuable in this format.
Now, in contrast, let’s look at a 5x5 roto league with a seasonal innings limit of 1400 and daily line-up changes. With a 1400 inning limit, teams will generally use 5-6 SPs depending on how many RPs they start.
In this format, non-closing RPs like Kenley are extremely valuable. The reason is simple. They will help your team with an elite K rate, a positive ERA and WHIP, and over the course of 162 games, they will pick up a handful of wins and saves also. In daily change leagues, you can leave these RPs in your line-up every day and rotate starters through on nights where they pitch.
The combination of increased RP value along with the seasonal innings cap really changes what you need from an SP in order for him to help your team. Also, keep in mind that the innings cap changes the K category a great deal. Any manager who is paying attention will make sure that their team gets to, or within a few innings of the max. This category, in essence, turns into K/9 because of the cap.
Knowing what we do, let’s take another look at Arroyo through the lens of a different format:
Arroyo is neutral in ERA and WHIP and he will help in wins, but he actually hurts your team badly in Ks. If you were to employ too many SPs with K rates as low as Arroyo’s, you will surely finish at the bottom of the K category. Some pitchers, like Kyle Lohse and Jered Weaver may make up for the low K rate with strong ERA and WHIP, but Arroyo does not really help us here either.
For every player like Arroyo that you take on, you would need a Darvish or a Samardzija to make up for lost ground in Ks. Does that seem like a good way to use a roster spot in this format?
In summary, your ace pitchers are always going to be valuable. For fringe guys like Arroyo, their value is entirely dependent on the specifics of your league. Get to know the ins and outs so that you can take advantage of your league’s format and get a leg up on the competition.
