Sophomore Slumps - 2014

[averagejoe]

Was gonna write an article about Sophomore Slumps. But it's not like I have statistical team at my disposal to put together examples to show the pros or cons. Was wondering if you guys wanted to help me with that?

They don't have to be rookies either. Some players get their "starting" break as veterans, or later in their career. Aaron Rodgers for example sat for 3 seasons before starting in 2008. (He had an excellent sophomore season in 2009 BTW.)

WR can be a safer bet from what I've found. (I looked at Dez, A.J., Julio, Torrey and T.Y. for example.)

QB is all over the place. Rodgers improved his 2nd season. So did Russell Wilson (but only slightly). Guys like Luck and Newton dipped a little, but were close enough to their previous season - but probably still disappointed their fantasy owners for not doing any better. Then there are the hyped guys who came on strong at the end of one season, only to fall way under expectations the next - like Cassel, Kolb, and Kaepernick.

RB doesn't seem to have middle guys. A few do better. But most RB don't meet fantasy expectations in their 2nd season. Spiller for example had a better sophomore season in 2011 compared to 2010, but it was still mediocre from a fantasy perspective (830/6). Morris, Richardson, and Ridley frustrated fantasy owners in their sophomore season of 2013.

Looking ahead to this season, I just wonder - based on the trends I've seen statistcially - if fantasy owners may be ranking Lacy, Bell and Bernard too high? I'm not even including Ball since he really didn't start last year. On the WR side, Jeffery or Keenan Allen may be a safer bet - if you trust the trend of sophomore statistical history. But is Kenny Stills a safe bet? There are a couple of QB going into their sophomore season like Geno and E.J., but neither comes with the typical hype associated with fantasy stars on the verge of a breakout season.

Maybe there is no such thing as a sophomore slump? Fantasy owners are going to believe what they want, regardless of what statistics, history or trends suggest.

I think I gave myself a headache. What do you guys think? Is it worth writing about?

 

[The Foot]

If you write it, I'll read it!

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Was gonna write an article about Sophomore Slumps. But it's not like I have statistical team at my disposal to put together examples to show the pros or cons. Was wondering if you guys wanted to help me with that?

They don't have to be rookies either. Some players get their "starting" break as veterans, or later in their career. Aaron Rodgers for example sat for 3 seasons before starting in 2008. (He had an excellent sophomore season in 2009 BTW.)

WR can be a safer bet from what I've found. (I looked at Dez, A.J., Julio, Torrey and T.Y. for example.)

QB is all over the place. Rodgers improved his 2nd season. So did Russell Wilson (but only slightly). Guys like Luck and Newton dipped a little, but were close enough to their previous season - but probably still disappointed their fantasy owners for not doing any better. Then there are the hyped guys who came on strong at the end of one season, only to fall way under expectations the next - like Cassel, Kolb, and Kaepernick.

RB doesn't seem to have middle guys. A few do better. But most RB don't meet fantasy expectations in their 2nd season. Spiller for example had a better sophomore season in 2011 compared to 2010, but it was still mediocre from a fantasy perspective (830/6). Morris, Richardson, and Ridley frustrated fantasy owners in their sophomore season of 2013.

Looking ahead to this season, I just wonder - based on the trends I've seen statistcially - if fantasy owners may be ranking Lacy, Bell and Bernard too high? I'm not even including Ball since he really didn't start last year. On the WR side, Jeffery or Keenan Allen may be a safer bet - if you trust the trend of sophomore statistical history. But is Kenny Stills a safe bet? There are a couple of QB going into their sophomore season like Geno and E.J., but neither comes with the typical hype associated with fantasy stars on the verge of a breakout season.

Maybe there is no such thing as a sophomore slump? Fantasy owners are going to believe what they want, regardless of what statistics, history or trends suggest.

I think I gave myself a headache. What do you guys think? Is it worth writing about?

We will all read it, but honestly no its not worth your time... this is not baseball, there is too much going on to take any thing seriously... Especially since there is no way you alone will be able to make a large enough sample size and do it for so many years...

WHen it comes to football, there are so many variables that i just wouldnt trust a statistical analysis... and i am a very big numbers guy!!!

 

[wilwhite]

Wrote a whole thing and somehow lost it... suffice it so say that the stats don't bear out a notion of a sophomore slump in recent years, either by counting rookies vs. sophomores in the top 12 FF RBs, or by looking at rookie RBs who turned in top-12 performances and their performance the following season.

Sophomore RBs pretty much behave like other RBs - some improving a little, some a lot, some completely falling part, some holding steady.

But note that fantasy superstuds Charles, McCoy, Ray Rice, CJ2K and Foster all were underdrafted in their sophomore years.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Wrote a whole thing and somehow lost it... suffice it so say that the stats don't bear out a notion of a sophomore slump in recent years, either by counting rookies vs. sophomores in the top 12 FF RBs, or by looking at rookie RBs who turned in top-12 performances and their performance the following season.

Sophomore RBs pretty much behave like other RBs - some improving a little, some a lot, some completely falling part, some holding steady.

But note that fantasy superstuds Charles, McCoy, Ray Rice, CJ2K and Foster all were underdrafted in their sophomore years.

I would like to think that most sophomore RBs that have the chance to be fantasy studs will go in the first or second round (Lacy, Stacy, Bell, Ball, Bernard). Gonna be hard to get that 4th-5th round value pick like you could with Foster and CJ1K before they had huge years.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Lacy is for real. Not sure about the others. I'm going to hate watching Rodgers and lacy play against the bears for years.

 

[TREFF]

My sophomore slump candidate? Keenan Allen. I'm not buying him being this stud that many think he is.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

My sophomore slump candidate? Keenan Allen. I'm not buying him being this stud that many think he is.

I am sure he will be a popular choice for the slump... but he is by far SDs best offensive weapon... as long as Philip rivers has a good season again then so should keenan... I just dont buy into projecting slumps from anyone, there is justt to many factors...

 

[TREFF]

I think a lot of people are forgetting what Malcolm Floyd can do, and the fact he wasn't in the field for virtually any of Allen's success. I'm hoping it stays that way come serious Draft time.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I'm tempted to go with Bernard here.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm tempted to go with Bernard here.

I know I posted this on another thread, but I just watched it 3 more times. Yes, it is that good; gave me Barry flashbacks.

THIS:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KgHCjlfSMU

he'll be worth his rd 2 value, imo. Green/Dalton combo keeps the safeties honest. The defense will give him plenty of chances with to get the ball in his hands. Hill will be the bruiser giving him the rest he needs to stay healthy.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

I know I posted this on another thread, but I just watched it 3 more times. Yes, it is that good; gave me Barry flashbacks.

THIS:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KgHCjlfSMU

he'll be worth his rd 2 value, imo. Green/Dalton combo keeps the safeties honest. The defense will give him plenty of chances with to get the ball in his hands. Hill will be the bruiser giving him the rest he needs to stay healthy.

Wow! Definitely looked like Barry in that one.

Good point about the safeties dealing with Green.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I know I posted this on another thread, but I just watched it 3 more times. Yes, it is that good; gave me Barry flashbacks.

THIS:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KgHCjlfSMU

he'll be worth his rd 2 value, imo. Green/Dalton combo keeps the safeties honest. The defense will give him plenty of chances with to get the ball in his hands. Hill will be the bruiser giving him the rest he needs to stay healthy.

And this is why predicting sophomore slumps is too hard... you can make a case for all of them to have similar seasons to the ones they had last year... I feel like football has more to do with opportunity than actual talent!!!

 

[averagejoe]

Wow! Definitely looked like Barry in that one.

Good point about the safeties dealing with Green.

That was a nice run by Bernard. But there was also some poor tackling by Miami. And great dowfield blocking by Cindy. I remember an awesome run by Vinny Testaverde against the Bears too.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I agree with you milk...except I would limit it to RB. QB and WR must be talented, IMO.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I agree with you milk...except I would limit it to RB. QB and WR must be talented, IMO.

everyone is talented to an extent, otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL... But look at these offenses when there #1 WR goes down, it is not like their offenses just shut down... they usually have a no name having a good game...

 

[TREFF]

That was a nice run by Bernard. But there was also some poor tackling by Miami. And great dowfield blocking by Cindy. I remember an awesome run by Vinny Testaverde against the Bears too.

Nothing beats the one by Bono though. . Pure sweetness. .so sweet even sweetness himself was jealous

 

[SmokingMonkey]

That was a nice run by Bernard. But there was also some poor tackling by Miami. And great dowfield blocking by Cindy. I remember an awesome run by Vinny Testaverde against the Bears too.

LOL, but I really like Bernard's chances of repeating that good run (or at least putting on great performances in addition to that highlight reel play). Vinny....not so much!

BTW, Bernard was drafted with the 2nd round pick from the Raiders when OAK rented Carson Palmer for a moment in a failed effort to make the playoffs in 2011. Palmer went 8-16 in a little over 1.5 seasons in the black and silver. Wow is that shitty ROI for a 1st and 2nd round draft pick!

 

[TREFF]

LOL, but I really like Bernard's chances of repeating that good run (or at least putting on great performances in addition to that highlight reel play). Vinny....not so much!

BTW, Bernard was drafted with the 2nd round pick from the Raiders when OAK rented Carson Palmer for a moment in a failed effort to make the playoffs in 2011. Palmer went 8-16 in a little over 1.5 seasons in the black and silver. Wow is that shitty ROI for a 1st and 2nd round draft pick!

Typical Davis family business. . We're used to it by now