Something to consider

[Broncos6482]

So about that Chiefs defense...

Yeah, they're good. No doubt about that. They lead the league in points allowed per game.

However (and you knew that was coming), a lot of that has been due to getting timely turnovers. We're this team is not great is in the way the NFL actually measures defenses, in yards allowed. The Chiefs are still good, but not as good. They are currently 9th in the league in yards allowed at 326.9 yards per game (the Texans are first at 280).

What this tells us the Chiefs are really a bend but don't break defense. In one of the most remarkable stats you'll probably ever see, the Chiefs opponents have run 11 plays from the Chiefs 1 yard line, and the Chiefs are actually outscoring their opponents from their 7-0.

In what is truly a matter of strength on strength, the Broncos lead the league by far in scoring touchdowns in the red zone. They are at 79.49% (next best is Dallas at 66.67%), and this despite the fact that they've turned it over 3 times in goal to go situations. The Chiefs defense also leads in the league in stopping teams from getting touchdowns in the red zone. They allow touchdowns only 23.08% of the time (next best is Baltimore at 33.33%).

So it basically comes down to this: can Denver continue to score touchdowns once they get the ball into the red zone. If they can, they should beat the Chiefs. But if they turn it over a few times once they get it down there, it could be a tough game for the Broncos.

 

[jeffro151]

KC hasn't played a good team yet, that's why they are undefeated. Out of their 9 wins, none of the losing teams has a record over .500. It's no wonder they are undefeated.

 

[JDM]

Ninth isn't good?

But ppg is a much better barometer of defense than yards. I don't care if the offense gets 700 yards if we still can shut them out.

 

[Broncosr0k]

KC hasn't played a good team yet, that's why they are undefeated. Out of their 9 wins, none of the losing teams has a record over .500. It's no wonder they are undefeated.

The unfortunate part of this argument is that the broncos have only played 1 team above .500 and that is the colts, the team they lost to. Broncos and chiefs have shared 6 opponents in nine games with the difference being the colts, redskins, and chargers for the broncos and the bills, browns, and texans for the chiefs.

Whether you can argue the broncos had the tougher three or not is a matter of perspective.

I think this game will show people whether the chiefs defense or the broncos offense is overrated.

Personally, I think the chiefs defense has benefited from weak offenses which makes them look tougher than they are but I may be bias.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

Ninth isn't good?

But ppg is a much better barometer of defense than yards. I don't care if the offense gets 700 yards if we still can shut them out.

True, but it's unlikely the Broncos will stall, throw pic 6's or turn the ball over in the red zone like the backup QB's the Chef's have faced so far.

 

[Broncos6482]

Ninth isn't good?

But ppg is a much better barometer of defense than yards. I don't care if the offense gets 700 yards if we still can shut them out.

Reread my post. I said "they're still good, just not as good." Yes, 9th is good, but it's not as good as their points per game ranking. My entire point was that they can be moved on, you just have to score touchdowns on them in the red zone, something they are very good at preventing.

 

[WalkerBoh]

Ninth isn't good?

But ppg is a much better barometer of defense than yards. I don't care if the offense gets 700 yards if we still can shut them out.

Not necessarily. It's possible for PPG allowed to be skewed by several variables out of the defense's control. It's "bend-but-don't-break" usually, which will often break, shatter, and splinter against an offense that's well versed at closing out drives with scores.

Yards allowed is actually the better barometer, since nearly all of the variables are controlled by the defense. This type of defense limits 1st downs, and maximizes 3 and outs. More often than not, that will also correlate to reduced scoring.

 

[JDM]

True, but it's unlikely the Broncos will stall, throw pic 6's or turn the ball over in the red zone like the backup QB's the Chef's have faced so far.

Have the broncos faced a better defense than KC's? They haven't, and blaming it on the opponents when the schedules so far are so similar is absurd IMO.

 

[WalkerBoh]

The true test of how good KC's defense is will come this Sunday night.

 

[Morpheus]

1st in points allowed against 4 back up and 3rd string QB's and not very good teams, so yes, they are a good defense, but you can't call them great until they prove it against real good offenses,

9th in yards allowed against teams in he bottom half of the league in total yards anyway except Dallas.

The big difference maker in that 1 point win for the Chiefs? Turnovers.

But let's look at their offense. Jamaal Charles is leading that team in receptions. No that is not a typo, he has 47 and next is Bowe with 33 and Avery with 27.

Charles accounts for the largest % of touches on that offense. KC is 17th in Scoring offense at 23.9 PPG and if you subtract the scores by the defense it is around 19 PPG.

A lot of KC's success has been the bog plays on takeaways and scoring on the turnover. Their offense has been playing safe and not turning the ball over. SO far they have been very good in the +/- turnover department and that is helping them win games that are close against teams with much offensive firepower.

That all changes Sunday night.

I am predicting they will not score more than 17 points, and Denver is the 4th ranked rushing defense. Key on Charles and they have no offense.

The feel you get out of practice this week and the focus that I am seeing is a playoff like atmosphere


And that their defense will get exposed. They are 19th against the run and the Broncos should be able to exploit that.

Time to bring the Chiefs back to reality.







.

 

[Morpheus]

The unfortunate part of this argument is that the broncos have only played 1 team above .500 and that is the colts, the team they lost to. Broncos and chiefs have shared 6 opponents in nine games with the difference being the colts, redskins, and chargers for the broncos and the bills, browns, and texans for the chiefs.

Whether you can argue the broncos had the tougher three or not is a matter of perspective.

I think this game will show people whether the chiefs defense or the broncos offense is overrated.

Personally, I think the chiefs defense has benefited from weak offenses which makes them look tougher than they are but I may be bias.

But the Broncos have blown out common opponents and in the Cowboys case, at least scored a ton of points.


Chiefs are squeaking by in quite a few of those wins against lesser opponents and back up QB's.

 

[Morpheus]

Have the broncos faced a better defense than KC's? They haven't, and blaming it on the opponents when the schedules so far are so similar is absurd IMO.

Has KC's defense faced an offense better than the Broncos?

 

[Broncos6482]

Have the broncos faced a better defense than KC's? They haven't, and blaming it on the opponents when the schedules so far are so similar is absurd IMO.

We're not blaming opponents, we're stating a fact that the Chiefs have put up great defensive numbers in part against back-up qb's. How good is the Chiefs defense when going against an elite offense? That's the question we're about to find our answer to.

 

[WalkerBoh]

This little tid-bit could very well turn into a deciding factor:

"Denver is the best second-down conversion team in the NFL, moving the chains over 42 percent of the time on second down. Kansas City is in the bottom half of the league stopping second-down conversions...."