So who can win the Super Bowl?

[flyerhawk]

Tier 1 - Dallas, Seattle, New England
Tier 2 - Chiefs, Broncos, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh
Tier 3 - Detroit, Green Bay, New York, Baltimore, Minnesota
Tier 4 - AFC South winner

For me, tier 1 are teams that have the best chance of making it to the Super Bowl. IMO, there is a better than 50% chance that the NFC representative will be Seattle or Dallas. New England has about the same chance in the AFC.

Tier 2 - These teams are all capable of a Super Bowl run but they also have significant question marks that will hurt them come playoff time. But they have a lot of talent and if they can minimize that weakness then I think they could make it. I would say there is a 40% or so chance that one of these teams makes it to the Super Bowl.

Tier 3 - These teams don't have a great chance but if they get hot at the right time they could make a run. Less than a 20% chance than one of these teams makes it to the Super Bowl

Tier 4 - Barring something really extraordinary this team is one and done.

 

[rmilia1]

I tend to agree overall, you've gotta crawl before you can walk most of the time....The Lions/Falcons are somewhat similar even though ATL has had more recent playoff exposure but, imo the Saints came out of nowhere in terms of history in the playoffs.

At the end of the day SEA and NE are going to be tough outs in this playoff...they can be knocked off, but it's going to take a great effort.

IMO if people think the Lions can't win in the playoffs because of lack of experience then those same people better not be including Dallas on their list of teams that can

 

[Voltaire26]

I tend to agree overall, you've gotta crawl before you can walk most of the time....The Lions/Falcons are somewhat similar even though ATL has had more recent playoff exposure but, imo the Saints came out of nowhere in terms of history in the playoffs.

At the end of the day SEA and NE are going to be tough outs in this playoff...they can be knocked off, but it's going to take a great effort.

The Lions fans have been crawling for a long time ... Time to make a run!!!! Defend the den an beyond.

 

[flyerhawk]

My biggest issue with the Lions is that they have, so far, squeaked out wins in nearly all of their wins so far. 6 of their 8 wins have been by 4 points or less and one of the wins by more than that was an overtime win. Of all the teams with roughly the same scoring differential so far this season, they are the only 1 with a winning record the other teams are all hovering around .500.

There have been examples of teams that have eeked out wins to a Super Bowl but they are pretty rare.

 

[SonnyCID]

I can't get past a couple of things with Dallas - a rookie QB & no pass rush. I can't put them as a favorite, even though based on the season they're having they deserve it. I like the Giants and Ravens ability to win the SB more than Cowboys. But this is a year for precedence setting - the Cavs win the NBA title, the Cubs won the WS, and a board game salesman was elected president.

 

[Money]

IMO if people think the Lions can't win in the playoffs because of lack of experience then those same people better not be including Dallas on their list of teams that can

Well...they've both played shit schedules, but at least the Cowboys have been dominant. The Cowboys also have a dominant OL and RB which is something that can carry them through. I don't really see that one dominant facet of the Lions that can carry them.

I'm not saying the Lions can't make an immediate splash, I'm just saying you rarely see it. You usually see a team make strides in a 3-year window or so before breaking through. Of course, that team should be the Cardinals this year and we can see where they are.

 

[cdumler7]

Ignoring byes.

Tier one contenders I am putting in

Patriots, Dallas

Tier 2

KC, Pit, Bal, Sea

Tier 3 Oak, ATL, Lions, Packers

Tier 4 Everyone else who can get in the playoffs if they get hot

Not seeing anything crazy overwhelming about the Patriots or even Dallas against other contenders when it comes to playoff time.

Still not sure what to make of Denver.

I would say for Denver it all depends on the health of Siemian. A healthy Siemian has looked at least decent this year and has shown some major signs of growth especially in being able to hit the deep ball. The problem for him is that half the season he has been banged up quite a bit and I just don't trust that he will be healthy when the playoffs start.

 

[rmilia1]

Well...they've both played shit schedules, but at least the Cowboys have been dominant. The Cowboys also have a dominant OL and RB which is something that can carry them through. I don't really see that one dominant facet of the Lions that can carry them.

I'm not saying the Lions can't make an immediate splash, I'm just saying you rarely see it. You usually see a team make strides in a 3-year window or so before being a legitimate contender. Of course, that team should be the Cardinals this year and we can see where they are.

Oh I agree. I was just pointing out that some were saying Detroit couldn't do it because they haven't been there before which is also true of Dallas

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I still believe that a team with Rodgers under center has a chance to win it every year

 

[shopson67]

KC needs more respect, but that injury to Derrick Johnson last night could really hurt their chances. They were just starting to get healthy, but they don't really have a proven backup to step in for him. Maybe DJ Alexander (2nd year) or Terrance Smith (rookie) surprises...

 

[RobBase]

Name a franchise that comes out of nowhere and wins the Super Bowl.

Your Ravens.

4-12 in 96
6-9-1 in 97
6-10 in 98
8-8 in 99

Made the playoffs as a wildcard team in 2000 and won the SB out of nowhere.

 

[Money]

Your Ravens.

4-12 in 96
6-9-1 in 97
6-10 in 98
8-8 in 99

Made the playoffs as a wildcard team in 2000 and won the SB out of nowhere.

So...turn of the century. Yeah...definitely count on it.

 

[RobBase]

So...turn of the century. Yeah...definitely count on it.

You asked. Guess you hadn't started watching football yet back then.

 

[Money]

You asked. Guess you hadn't started watching football yet back then.

Did I say it never happened???

Do you see HOF QBs being drafted in the 6th round every year since 2000 as well???

 

[RobBase]

Did I say it never happened???

No. You asked me to name a team who has come out of nowhere to win a SB, and now you are obviously embarrassed at being owned by your own question.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

IMO if people think the Lions can't win in the playoffs because of lack of experience then those same people better not be including Dallas on their list of teams that can

Using that Saints ex. again...2009, 13-3, 1 seed, won two home games in the playoffs and beat IND in the SB....they were 8-8, 7-9, 10-6, and 3-13 the previous 4 seasons.

So yes, imo it's more likely for DAL as the 1 seed (assuming they maintain) to win the SB than DET even though neither has had much playoff experience recently. I know Brees was not a rookie, etc., but the point is based on the math and logistics.

 

[Money]

No. You asked me to name a team who has come out of nowhere to win a SB, and now you are obviously embarrassed at being owned by your own question.

The fact that you had to go back to the turn of the century is completely lost on you, huh?

You're obviously butthurt that a very select few people take the Lions seriously. I get it. Enjoy your team's little slice of relevance and soak it up while you can. If you are honest, you can't tell me that you aren't more than a little concerned that the Lions don't even make the playoffs. The funny thing is that I don't consider the Ravens to even have a remote chance this year and they have one less win than your "SB contender" Lions.

 

[Southieinnc]

I still believe that a team with Mr.Rodgers under center has a chance to win it every year

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I can't get past a couple of things with Dallas - a rookie QB & no pass rush. I can't put them as a favorite, even though based on the season they're having they deserve it. I like the Giants and Ravens ability to win the SB more than Cowboys. But this is a year for precedence setting - the Cavs win the NBA title, the Cubs won the WS, and a board game salesman was elected president.

LOL...definitely something in the air for oddities.

I agree< DAL should not be a favorite either, but two home games...it's possible.

NYG, Vernon is good, but without JPP they are not going to win the SB imo....they don't run the ball well enough, to win 4 games imo.

 

[packerzrule]

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