Smart's Bubble Watch

[Smart]

I'm already about a month late, and don't know how many I am gonna be able to do, but i'll start. As a reminder, this is about each team's shot at making the tournament as an At-Large selection:

Locks (99%+) (23):
Saint Louis
Miami
Duke
NC State
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Syracuse
Louisville
Notre Dame
Pitt
Indiana
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio State
Memphis
New Mexico
Colorado State
Arizona
Florida
Gonzaga

All But Locks (90%-99%) (14):
Butler
VCU
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Iowa State
Marquette
Illinois
Minnesota
Wichita State
Creighton
UNLV
San Diego State
Oregon
Missouri

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (6):
Maryland
Cincinnati
UCLA
Cal
Ole Miss
Kentucky

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (9):
La Salle
Virginia
Villanova
Iowa
Akron
Boise State
Colorado
Middle Tennessee
St. Mary’s


Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (11):
Temple
Baylor
St. Johns
Southern Miss
Belmont
Arizona State
Arkansas
Tennessee
TAMU
Davidson
Louisiana Tech

All But Out (1%-10%) (14):
Charlotte
UMass
Valparaiso
Detroit
Ohio
Northern Iowa
Indiana State
Wyoming
Air Force
Stanford
Bucknell
LSU
Stephen F. Austin
BYU

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

 

[Smart]

There will probably be between 16 and 20 teams that aren't "on the bubble" who will make the tournament by winning the conference tournament. This means that between 2 and 6 of the "on the bubble" teams would likely make it in if the tourney started today.

 

[Red_Alert]

Iowa is 'most likely out' (or even 'all but out') with their loss to Nebraska today.

 

[Smart]

Iowa is 'most likely out' (or even 'all but out') with their loss to Nebraska today.

They are still #29 in KenPom, and #40 in BPI. I almost put them in most likely out, but all they have to do to go 9-9 in the B1G is win their three home games. As questionable as they've been on the road, their only home losses are by 3 to MSU and 4 to Indiana. IMO, 9-9 in the B1G this year is with one BTT win probably gets them in.

 

[uncfan103]

Creighton has a better chance than st. Mary's? The Gaels has lost twice since January both times against gonzaga. Creighton has lost six times since January including against st Mary's.

 

[Red_Alert]

If Creighton loses at home to Wichita St I figure they'll be out of the NCAA tournament.

They may be out now..

 

[Shanemansj13]

Iowa is 'most likely out' (or even 'all but out') with their loss to Nebraska today.

Most likely. But if they were to win out and do good in B1G Tourney it could be interesting.

 

[Red_Alert]

Most likely. But if they were to win out and do good in B1G Tourney it could be interesting.

Pretty sure their fans were counting the two Nebraska games as wins, but yeah if they win out the next 4 that would be 21 wins and another win in the B1G tournament would probably get them there.

 

[Smart]

Creighton has a better chance than st. Mary's? The Gaels has lost twice since January both times against gonzaga. Creighton has lost six times since January including against st Mary's.

The four most important factors that I look at are (in order): KenPom, Auto Tourney Wins: Non-Tourney Loss Ratio, National Perception, and RPI.

Creighton is #24 in KenPom. St. Mary's is #26.

Creighton has a 3:4 ratio. St Mary's has a 1:3 ratio.

Creighton is 44 at RPI. St. Marys is 42 in RPI.

National perception favors Creighton (McDermott gets much more press and they get a lot more airtime).

I probably misplaced Creighton (they should be "Most Likely In"), but I think they are in a better position than St. Mary's. Especially because they have a a lot of shots to add good wins (between Wichita and Arch Madness) and St. Mary's only hope is to beat the Zags in the WCC tourney.

 

[Shanemansj13]

The four most important factors that I look at are (in order): KenPom, Auto Tourney Wins: Non-Tourney Loss Ratio, National Perception, and RPI.

Creighton is #24 in KenPom. St. Mary's is #26.

Creighton has a 3:4 ratio. St Mary's has a 1:3 ratio.

Creighton is 44 at RPI. St. Marys is 42 in RPI.

National perception favors Creighton (McDermott gets much more press and they get a lot more airtime).

I probably misplaced Creighton (they should be "Most Likely In"), but I think they are in a better position than St. Mary's. Especially because they have a a lot of shots to add good wins (between Wichita and Arch Madness) and St. Mary's only hope is to beat the Zags in the WCC tourney.

St. Mary's will get in, you kidding me, they are 24-5. They have a much better chance of getting in than Creighton.

Creighton (22-7) will probably get in, but are on the bubble. If they slip up in final two games or in their tourney could be a close call.

 

[Shanemansj13]

St. Mary's lost 5 games last yr and got a 7 seed.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Creighton lost 5 games last yr and and got an 8 seed.

They already have 7 losses.

 

[Smart]

Shane, I think you are severely underrating the role that OOC wins play in tourney analysis. Creighton only had 1 decent OOC win last year. This year, they have 4 wins over bubble teams or better OOC.

Prior to yesterday, St. Mary's had 0 OOC wins over any likely NIT teams. Their best win was @ a Utah State team that is in 4th in one of the weakest conferences in America. Record alone means nothing....prior to yesterday, St. Mary's was out.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I see they beat Wisky but didnt beat anyone else worthy and they lost to Boise.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I know SM had 3 bad losses early, but only lost to Zags twice since. And beating Creighton makes them have as many good wins non-conf as Creighton, plus beating em head-to-head puts em a step ahead.

 

[Shanemansj13]

SOS Is 93 to 115 favoring Creighton...not much difference

 

[Smart]

I see they beat Wisky but didnt beat anyone else worthy and they lost to Boise.

Beating Akron by 16 is a very good win. Every other Akron loss was decided in the last minute, including an overtime game against a ranked Oklahoma State team.

Cal is a tourney lock if they can just go 2-1 in their last three games (all at home).

Arizona State is a classic bubble team, and they were probably in the dance before their egg against Washington last night.

And yes, they beat us. All four of those wins are MUCH better than St. Mary's #2 win (not just OOC either...over their entire seasons). Good wins matter. This is why Utah State kept missing the tourney despite being in the 20s in RPI. It's why Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech are in grave danger of missing the tourney if they lose in their conference tourneys. They'd be a lock if they had a win over Wisconsin or even Akron, but one win over a top 75 team is not a resume for the tourney in most cases.

 

[uncfan103]

Shane, I think you are severely underrating the role that OOC wins play in tourney analysis. Creighton only had 1 decent OOC win last year. This year, they have 4 wins over bubble teams or better OOC.

Prior to yesterday, St. Mary's had 0 OOC wins over any likely NIT teams. Their best win was @ a Utah State team that is in 4th in one of the weakest conferences in America. Record alone means nothing....prior to yesterday, St. Mary's was out.

They won @BYU. Creighton has not beaten anyone since like Christmas that is gonna be seen a a good win. St. Marys has an OOC win than Creighton closer later in the year. I dont think press is going to help McDermott get in either. I dont think Creighton should get in over St. Marys but it doesn't mean it won't happen

Common Opponents
@ Drake - St. Marys win - Creighton loss
@ Northern Iowa - St. Marys loss - Creighton loss

St. Marys also beat Creighton.

St. Mary's (according to the announcers during the Gonzaga game) was on the bubble after losing both games to the Zags. I just dont think Creighton as an advantage over St. Marys right now. The only thing helping Creighton is the MWC is viewed as being a better conference so when they beat Wichita it will be beneficial. St. Mary's has nobody on their schedule that is viewed as a good win outside of Gonzaga (who they have already played twice).

 

[uncfan103]

Beating Akron by 16 is a very good win. Every other Akron loss was decided in the last minute, including an overtime game against a ranked Oklahoma State team.

Cal is a tourney lock if they can just go 2-1 in their last three games (all at home).

Arizona State is a classic bubble team, and they were probably in the dance before their egg against Washington last night.

And yes, they beat us. All four of those wins are MUCH better than St. Mary's #2 win (not just OOC either...over their entire seasons). Good wins matter. This is why Utah State kept missing the tourney despite being in the 20s in RPI. It's why Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech are in grave danger of missing the tourney if they lose in their conference tourneys. They'd be a lock if they had a win over Wisconsin or even Akron, but one win over a top 75 team is not a resume for the tourney in most cases.

They have at least three wins over top 75 teams.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Yea SM has a worse non-conf and haven't played as many top teams, but Creighton haa struggled of late and that is a key. MVC is a little stronger than WCC, but ranking it is 9. MVC and 10. WCC, so not much of a difference. And the head-to-head jumps St. Marys up over Creighton.