Smart's Bubble Watch 2015

[kramer1]

Cincinnati has creeped into the top 30 in the AP and coaches polls today. They're gonna be a top 20 team and at worst a 5 seed. Look out. Fear the D. Cincy plays ridiculous D.

 

[ericd7633]

Cincinnati has creeped into the top 30 in the AP and coaches polls today. They're gonna be a top 20 team and at worst a 5 seed. Look out. Fear the D. Cincy plays ridiculous D.

Polls have no reflect on seeding. Cincy was in the top 12 at the end of last year and wound up with a 5 seed. Louisville was ranked 5th and ended up a 4 seed.

 

[ericd7633]

I think UCONN has a 1 chance in 5 of winning the AAC tourney.

If that happens Tulsa and Temple won't get in then.

 

[kramer1]

If that happens Tulsa and Temple won't get in then.

You're nuts. Bookmark this and make fun of me later.

 

[ericd7633]

You're nuts. Bookmark this and make fun of me later.

The AAC is not getting 5 teams in the tournament. If it didn't get 5 last year, it certainly won't this year. Plus Tulsa/Temple are guaranteed to lose at least one more game and if neither of them win the conference tournament that's another loss.

I just don't think Tulsa is that good either.

AAC will get 3 at the most, barring a surprise run in the conf tourney by some outsider.

 

[kramer1]

The AAC is not getting 5 teams in the tournament. If it didn't get 5 last year, it certainly won't this year. Plus Tulsa/Temple are guaranteed to lose at least one more game and if neither of them win the conference tournament that's another loss.

I just don't think Tulsa is that good either.

AAC will get 3 at the most, barring a surprise run in the conf tourney by some outsider.

Well, I said they'd get 4. UC, SMU, Tulsa, and 1 of Temple/UCONN. So, make fun of me later if they don't.

I think UCONN can make a conference tourney run and get in. They split with UC.

 

[rmilia1]

Connecticut projects at a 17-13 finish with a rpi of 76 and a top 100 record of 5-10. Minnesota projects at a 17-13 final record with an rpi of 79 and a 6-10 top 100 record. Uconn has roughly the same shot of making the tourney as Minnesota so pretty slim

 

[rmilia1]

Tulsa has a projected final record of 21-8 with a final rpi of 41 and a 5-6 record vs the top100. Buffalo has a projected final record of 20-10, a final rpi of 38 and a 4-5 record vs the top 100.

 

[rmilia1]

I did notice old dominion didn't make any of your lists sb? I think the monarchs have a decent shot at an at large. Good ooc sos, solid predicted rpi, 6-2 vs the top 100.. too many bad losses for you? Honestly their resume isn't much worse than a team like temple, if it's worse at all

 

[ericd7633]

Well, I said they'd get 4. UC, SMU, Tulsa, and 1 of Temple/UCONN. So, make fun of me later if they don't.

I think UCONN can make a conference tourney run and get in. They split with UC.

They will have to win the auto bid at this point(unless they win out to the AACT). Not saying they can't accomplish that, because they obviously could in that conference. However, if that does happen, that means Tulsa and Temple would suffer losses in the AACT, most likely to Uconn, which would be a suspect loss.

If Cincy and SMU take care of business down the stretch this conference only might get those two teams in, but Cincy and SMU aren't world beaters so they could give those other teams an opportunity for some quality wins.

 

[ericd7633]

Tulsa has a projected final record of 21-8 with a final rpi of 41 and a 5-6 record vs the top100. Buffalo has a projected final record of 20-10, a final rpi of 38 and a 4-5 record vs the top 100.

I can't see Tulsa getting in if they finish 4-3.

 

[ericd7633]

Connecticut projects at a 17-13 finish with a rpi of 76 and a top 100 record of 5-10. Minnesota projects at a 17-13 final record with an rpi of 79 and a 6-10 top 100 record. Uconn has roughly the same shot of making the tourney as Minnesota so pretty slim

Yes we all know Minnesota sucks! LOL.

No need to remind me.

 

[Smart]

I did notice old dominion didn't make any of your lists sb? I think the monarchs have a decent shot at an at large. Good ooc sos, solid predicted rpi, 6-2 vs the top 100.. too many bad losses for you? Honestly their resume isn't much worse than a team like temple, if it's worse at all

They look much better on the RPI stats than the efficiency stats, where they are in the 70ish range with a resume that is very similar to Harvard and Bowling Green. Their schedule strength is horrendous (both NC and total), and they have four bad losses to one good win. All of those signs point to them being way out, despite the decent RPI.

That being said, I can't find a major distinction between them and Louisiana Tech. If Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green, and Valpo are on "All But Out," Old Dominion should be as well. Those teams are all peers. The Monarchs will likely have to win out before the conference tourney (with a home win over LA Tech being especially important), but I think you are probably right that there is a >1% chance of that happening. I strongly disagree with you that their resume resembles Temple or any of the other "On the Bubble" teams.

 

[rmilia1]

I'll take your word on the efficiency stats sb. I do think it's weird you consider odu to have a bad ooc schedule though as it ranks 42 in sos. They do have 3 sub 100 losses which isn't good but based solely on rpi stats the monarchs have a solid resume. It'll be interesting to see how the committee treats them

 

[SJ76]

Well, I said they'd get 4. UC, SMU, Tulsa, and 1 of Temple/UCONN. So, make fun
of me later if they don't.

I think UCONN can make a conference tourney
run and get in. They split with UC.

Who has Tulsa beat? SMU (who's beat no one outside the top 50) just beat Tulsa at Tulsa. I would think more Big 10, PAc 12, ACC teams would get in that are beating each other senseless, than a team like Tulsa?

 

[Smart]

I'll take your word on the efficiency stats sb. I do think it's weird you consider odu to have a bad ooc schedule though as it ranks 42 in sos. They do have 3 sub 100 losses which isn't good but based solely on rpi stats the monarchs have a solid resume. It'll be interesting to see how the committee treats them

It might be 42 in RPI NCSOS (ESPN RPI has it 62). As I've talked about before, I prefer KenPom for a variety of reasons. Their KenPom NCSOS is #193. And just looking at it, they played only one team (VCU, in a true home game) which is likely to make the Dance with a second (LSU) on the bubble.

 

[kramer1]

UC owns the nation's longest active games streak for holding its opponent under 70 points at 27. The 2014-15 Bearcats are one of three UC teams since the 1949-50 season to hold as many as seven consecutive opponents under 60 points.

 

[Archangel]

I'm just happy that Oklahoma State might win a game in the NCAA Tourney this year. I thought they'd be total shit.

 

[ericd7633]

UC owns the nation's longest active games streak for holding its opponent under 70 points at 27. The 2014-15 Bearcats are one of three UC teams since the 1949-50 season to hold as many as seven consecutive opponents under 60 points.

You couldn't have picked a worse time to bring that up. lol.

 

[ericd7633]

I'm just happy that Oklahoma State might win a game in the NCAA Tourney this year. I thought they'd be total shit.

They are really surprising me too this year. Thought losing Smart and Brown would be too much to overcome for this year. Forte has really stepped up. I could see them finishing as high as 3rd in the Big 12.