Smart's Bubble Watch 2015

[Smart]

Locks (99%+) (16):
Virginia
Notre Dame
North Carolina
Duke
Louisville
Kansas
Iowa State
Villanova
Butler
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Wichita State
Arizona
Utah
Kentucky
Gonzaga

All But Locks (90%-99%) (9):
VCU
Oklahoma
Baylor
West Virginia
Oklahoma State
Georgetown
Northern Iowa
San Diego State
Arkansas

Most Likely In (60%-90%) (12):
SMU
Cincy
Dayton
Texas
Providence
Maryland
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan State
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Georgia

Right On The Bubble (40%-60%) (13):
Tulsa
Temple
George Washington
Miami
NC State
Xavier
Seton Hall
St. Johns
Purdue
Illinois
Colorado State
Stanford
LSU

Most Likely Out (10%-40%) (12):
UConn
Rhode Island
Davidson
Green Bay
Wyoming
Boise State
Oregon
Oregon State
Alabama
Stephen F. Austin
St. Marys
BYU

All But Out (1%-10%) (18):
Memphis
UMass
Clemson
Pitt
Kansas State
Minnesota
Michigan
Louisiana Tech
Valparaiso
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Toledo
Murray State
UCLA
Arizona State
Tennessee
Florida
Vanderbilt

Done (1%-):
Everyone Else

 

[Smart]

Some Notes:

1. This list only deals with at-large teams. Obviously, teams from small conferences will get in through autobids. During most years, somewhere around 2-3 teams win the conference tournament when they are not projected in the dance. My hunch is that this year, there will be about 22 such party crashers. That would put 6 of the 13 “Right on the Bubble” teams in the dance.

2. This is a projection. It is meant to consider future performance as well as performance to date. This calls for some level of prognostication, which explains why some teams with better resumes may be behind others (like the logjam of Big 12 teams outside of Lock status, for instance). As more games are played, the prognostication will obviously play a smaller role.

3. The most important things that I look at are efficiency, good wins, and bad losses. To a lesser extent, I look at RPI and what professional bracketologists say. In making prognostications, I do consider a coach’s history.

4. I tend to be conservative with granting "Lock" status and granting “Done” status. I can’t think of any Locks or Dones from my initial lists which have been wrong (although I have removed teams from Lock and Done status…I’ve also had Locks miss the dance, but never from my initial list). As the tourney gets closer, more teams will go to the margins and the middle will empty out.

5. I feel that the bubble is pretty weak this year, and the area just outside the bubble is much weaker than normal. I think the top 16 or so teams have better resumes than most years.

6. I expect that my schedule will limit me to 2-3 more of these before Selection Sunday, instead of my usual 4-5. There will probably be a couple of weeks before the next one.

Any comments are obviously appreciated. I’m glad we finally have a functional CBB forum.

 

[rmilia1]

Looks great as usual sb. Couple questions. Why osu as a lock? And why Wichita as a lock but not uni?

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Thanks Smart.

I appreciate the effort you put into this. I know the prognostication part requires a lot of work, but I'd rather see somebody at least look at the upcoming schedules for teams and take a calculated guess, than do yet another "if the tournament started today" non-projection.

That crap drives me nuts. It's just a cop out because most people are either too lazy, or don't want to be wrong, and they'd rather do it "if it started today" style so they can always update things at the last minute when almost everyone knows 95% of the field, and then act like they were geniuses.

It would be like if I asked the local meteorologist, "Hey, I'm getting married next weekend. Can you give me an idea of what the weather is going to be like." and he responded by looking out the window and telling me "Well, if your wedding was today, it would be sunny." That asshole would get punched in the face, and that's how I'm starting to feel about Lunardi and Palm.

They act like looking at the "standings" page, picking the top team from each league as the "shit, I guess they'll win their conference tournament" auto-bid, then filling in the at-large teams with the top RPI teams, and making a few obvious adjustments, makes the Kreskin or something.

Sorry about the rant, but again I appreciate the work. Looks good.

 

[NDHoosier101]

Disappointed that it looks like Valpo isn't going to make it. Would have been 5 teams from Indiana in the tourney.

 

[ericd7633]

Disappointed that it looks like Valpo isn't going to make it. Would have been 5 teams from Indiana in the tourney.

They certainly can get the auto bid. Huge game ahead with Green Bay and then the very last game of the regular season against Cleveland State, which could determine home court in the conference tournament.

Also, I don't think Purdue is ultimately going to get in, if that was one of the 5 you were counting on. They are right on the edge. Certainly ND and Butler are locks at this point, and barring a collapse, IU should be back in the tournament.

Also, don't count out Indiana State in the MVC. They could get hot and win Arch Madness.

 

[kramer1]

I gotta think that Tulsa is all but a lock like UC and SMU.

 

[ericd7633]

I gotta think that Tulsa is all but a lock like UC and SMU.

Not if you actually look at their resume.

RPI: 48
SOS: 125
Non Conf. SOS: 128
Vs. RPI Top 25: 0-3
Vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Vs. RPI Top 100: 3-4

Tulsa's resume is very mediocre at this point.

Also, the American is terrible this year. Very likely they only get 2 bids, especially if Cincy or SMU wins the conference tournament.

 

[kramer1]

Not if you actually look at their resume.

RPI: 48
SOS: 125
Non Conf. SOS: 128
Vs. RPI Top 25: 0-3
Vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Vs. RPI Top 100: 3-4

Tulsa's resume is very mediocre at this point.

Also, the American is terrible this year. Very likely they only get 2 bids, especially if Cincy or SMU wins the conference tournament.

The AAC will get 4. UC, SMU, Tulsa, and Temple/UConn.

I expect UC or SMU to win the conference tourney.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Nice job overall.

really no issues with in/out. Only maybe at where some are listed, but that's a small quibble. I'd drop OSU into the next tier. Especially since the committee will no doubt look at how they play down the stretch without the player they suspended, and if he's expected to be suspended the rest of the year. Those games will be a better indication of how they will play into March without him.

G-Town, I would drop, but only because they are vastly over-rated every year.

I think SMU and UC are as close to locks as you can get in the AAC...baring any really bad finishes/losses down the stretch.

Tulsa I agree with because they are facing their toughest stretch of schedule all year...lost to SMU, have another against SMU, face UConn (Twice I think?) and UC and Memphis (maybe?)...

Memphis has a rough stretch, as their best player Nichols is now out at least 2 weeks.

UConn is done unless they win the tourney.

Dayton needs to pick it back up...starting to slip.

I think BGSU could sneak in. They've been impressive as a MAC team this year.

 

[Smart]

Looks great as usual sb. Couple questions. Why osu as a lock? And why Wichita as a lock but not uni?

Wichita may have lost to Northern Iowa, but they have played a better schedule and are slightly more efficient with a slightly better RPI. Basically, at this point, their resumes are identical in strength.

In the end, it came down to "which team is more likely to take a few bad losses." I felt like that team was Northern Iowa because:

1. Northern Iowa relies on their shooting much more than Wichita. Wichita actually doesn't shoot it well at all. They rely on interior aggressiveness and cuts to the basket. They shoot it much worse than UNI by all metrics, yet their offense is more efficient. That tells you that if both teams go cold, Wichita is much more likely to survive.

2. UNI plays a very slow pace. Fewer possessions statistically means under the "law of large numbers" that the better team is more likely to lose. When you are the underdog, it also makes you more likely to win, but it isn't like Northern Iowa will be underdogs besides the Wichita rematch.

3. Northern Iowa already has a bad loss. Wichita State does not.

4. I do put faith into Wichita based on their track record the past few years. Three of their top four were key components on a Final Four team while all of them were on the undefeated team last year. I think they are less likely to collapse than a team that went 16-15 last year where no one has ever had less than 14 losses.

UNI is a great team and may have a higher ceiling (because their shooting can bail them out against good defenses). But which team is more likely to lose 4 games and get on the bubble? The answer to me is UNI. If UNI wins their next two (leaving only 4 regular season games), I think they reach lock status.

Ohio State wasn't a hard pick. They have no bad losses (which as I've said before is a huge factor in my rankings), and all of their losses were by single digits. They are efficient. I think they likely only need 4 wins counting the BTT. I think there is a 99+% chance it happens. And I do like the makeup of their team...they never really get rattled and they are an excellent fast break team.

The only one of the locks which was a tough pick was Butler.

 

[ericd7633]

The AAC will get 4. UC, SMU, Tulsa, and Temple/UConn.

I expect UC or SMU to win the conference tourney.

Huh? Uconn? Have you looked at their resume?

RPI: 94
SOS: 92
vs. Top 25: 0-2
vs. Top 50: 2-7
Vs. Top 100: 3-8

They'd be lucky to make the NIT in all honesty, if they keep performing at the level they are.

I don't think there is any way this league gets 4, especially if SMU/Cincy win the conference tournament. That would mean both Tulsa and Temple would lose in the Semi's of the AAC tournament at best, losing out on a chance at a quality win, and adding another loss to the resume.

3 is a possibility, I don't see 4 happening, basically in any scenario that includes SMU/Cincy winning the conference tournament.

 

[podsox]

I don't know why but my gut tells me ucla ends up getting in. they have been playing good basketball the last 2 wks and have a favorable schedule to end the yr with only 2 rd games

 

[Smart]

G-Town, I would drop, but only because they are vastly over-rated every year.

I think SMU and UC are as close to locks as you can get in the AAC...baring any really bad finishes/losses down the stretch.

Tulsa I agree with because they are facing their toughest stretch of schedule all year...lost to SMU, have another against SMU, face UConn (Twice I think?) and UC and Memphis (maybe?)...

Memphis has a rough stretch, as their best player Nichols is now out at least 2 weeks.

UConn is done unless they win the tourney.

Dayton needs to pick it back up...starting to slip.

For OSU, I don't think they will get punished for Loving's suspension. The NCAA likes discipline when it isn't forced by any media or NCAA pressure. But as I said before, OSU is very safe. Their numbers are very good, but more importantly, they won't embarrass the committee, as they don't lose by a lot.

G-Town is the type of team that the committee loves. The committee hates teams that take bad losses and Georgetown is too big and tough to lose to teams without elite athletes. It's true that they have eight losses, but the worst two are to Xavier (KenPom #26, RPI #31). If they don't drop the game to DePaul and go at least 3-3 in the last six, they are a lock. If a team has more great wins than bad losses (and right now they have 2 great wins to no bad losses), they will get in. At this point, it seems unlikely that G-Town won't be in that group.

I got burned by SMU last year (who was one of my first locks to ever miss the tournament). I'm gonna be cautious with the American this year. SMU's resume looks great by the numbers. No bad losses and a solid NCSOS almost always get you in. The only thing missing is a signature win. Cincy is in a worse position. They have one terrible loss (East Carolina) and three iffy ones. They need SMU to stay hot along with San Diego State. If those good wins fall apart, Cincy's resume starts looking very questionable.

Dayton is down to 7 players who started the year on scholarship. They still look like they will make the dance, but depth and tiring has to be a big concern.

 

[rmilia1]

Wichita may have lost to Northern Iowa, but they have played a better schedule and are slightly more efficient with a slightly better RPI. Basically, at this point, their resumes are identical in strength.

In the end, it came down to "which team is more likely to take a few bad losses." I felt like that team was Northern Iowa because:

1. Northern Iowa relies on their shooting much more than Wichita. Wichita actually doesn't shoot it well at all. They rely on interior aggressiveness and cuts to the basket. They shoot it much worse than UNI by all metrics, yet their offense is more efficient. That tells you that if both teams go cold, Wichita is much more likely to survive.

2. UNI plays a very slow pace. Fewer possessions statistically means under the "law of large numbers" that the better team is more likely to lose. When you are the underdog, it also makes you more likely to win, but it isn't like Northern Iowa will be underdogs besides the Wichita rematch.

3. Northern Iowa already has a bad loss. Wichita State does not.

4. I do put faith into Wichita based on their track record the past few years. Three of their top four were key components on a Final Four team while all of them were on the undefeated team last year. I think they are less likely to collapse than a team that went 16-15 last year where no one has ever had less than 14 losses.

UNI is a great team and may have a higher ceiling (because their shooting can bail them out against good defenses). But which team is more likely to lose 4 games and get on the bubble? The answer to me is UNI. If UNI wins their next two (leaving only 4 regular season games), I think they reach lock status.

Ohio State wasn't a hard pick. They have no bad losses (which as I've said before is a huge factor in my rankings), and all of their losses were by single digits. They are efficient. I think they likely only need 4 wins counting the BTT. I think there is a 99+% chance it happens. And I do like the makeup of their team...they never really get rattled and they are an excellent fast break team.

The only one of the locks which was a tough pick was Butler.

Fair enough

 

[Cincyfan78]

For OSU, I don't think they will get punished for Loving's suspension. The NCAA likes discipline when it isn't forced by any media or NCAA pressure. But as I said before, OSU is very safe. Their numbers are very good, but more importantly, they won't embarrass the committee, as they don't lose by a lot.

G-Town is the type of team that the committee loves. The committee hates teams that take bad losses and Georgetown is too big and tough to lose to teams without elite athletes. It's true that they have eight losses, but the worst two are to Xavier (KenPom #26, RPI #31). If they don't drop the game to DePaul and go at least 3-3 in the last six, they are a lock. If a team has more great wins than bad losses (and right now they have 2 great wins to no bad losses), they will get in. At this point, it seems unlikely that G-Town won't be in that group.

I got burned by SMU last year (who was one of my first locks to ever miss the tournament). I'm gonna be cautious with the American this year. SMU's resume looks great by the numbers. No bad losses and a solid NCSOS almost always get you in. The only thing missing is a signature win. Cincy is in a worse position. They have one terrible loss (East Carolina) and three iffy ones. They need SMU to stay hot along with San Diego State. If those good wins fall apart, Cincy's resume starts looking very questionable.

Dayton is down to 7 players who started the year on scholarship. They still look like they will make the dance, but depth and tiring has to be a big concern.

My point about OSU, though, is that in the past they have looked at when teams lost impact players. They may love the fact that they suspended him, but they will consider how they play without him. Will they drop out? Doubtful...will they drop seeding spots...almost assuredly.

I won't disagree about G-town, but they are over-rated every year. They just are. My point more about seeding than 'if' they make it.

SMU only burned you because they fell apart completely last year down the stretch. I don't see that happening again this year.

Even if they do, the impact felt by UC will be minimal overall. UC has a solid NCSOS, good wins over NC State and SDSU, and are in a solid position to make the tourney, and even if SMU stumbles a bit, a road win there is still good. Unless UC falls completely apart down the stretch, which they shouldn't, they will be in. I'm not worried about them.

Agreed with Dayton.

 

[ericd7633]

The more I study Michigan States resume the more I think they are in the wrong category. IMO they should be right on the bubble.

RPI: 52
Vs Top 25: 0-4
Vs Top 50: 2-6
Vs Top 100: 4-6.
Two 100+ RPI losses.

I know there is some projection as well based on your groupings but with remaining games @Illinois, Wisconsin and IU and a home game against Ohio State I could see them losing 4 more games this regular season.

Its quite fascinating to me that their entire resume strength is based off of a road win against a team on the 8/9 line right now. They have an extremely mediocre resume at this point.

 

[kramer1]

I think UCONN has a 1 chance in 5 of winning the AAC tourney.

 

[tducey]

Interesting especially when you see the defending champs look like they might not make the tourney this year.

 

[SJ76]

Read something today about SMU not playing any top 50 teams. I hope the Illini get more momentum and the young guys start to ball tho.