SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 6

[Chewbaccer]

Back again for another week, and this time with my tail tucked between my legs. That was quite the ass whoopin Bama put on Georgia last week wasn't it? Georgia looked worse than Middle Tennessee did against Bama, but on the bright side, as a Georgia fan, misery does love company and the fans of the Ole Miss Rebels can join us Dawg fans for a crying in our beer session, because it's arguable that Ole Miss looked worse against FLorida than Georgia did against Bama. It was a nice statement weekend for the Florida and Bama teams. Alabama showed that they are far from dead and FLorida showed that they are the real deal this year, and their defense is scary. I honestly don't think I could have been further off in my predictions of these two games, so I'm putting in a disclaimer this week. These predictions are just my thoughts on the various games being played and in now way should be used as a guide for betting real money.

And if we were wondering how Tennessee would respond to another devastating loss at the hands of Florida, it was not good. Arkansas, a team that had lost 3 in a row and looked pretty lifeless in the process beat the Volunteers. Tennessee has Georgia in Knoxville this season. Both must have a win, and the loser I could see going into full free fall mode.

I was also wrong on the Mississippi State, Texas A&M game. I didn't get to watch this one as I was still crying in my beer over the Georgia loss, and sitting at a poker table looking at the 200 dollars I won Saturday night next to the 850 I won Friday night and thinking I would have traded it all for a Georgia win, and at least half of it for a close game. But it does appear that A&M is the real deal this season, and the fight between them, Bama and LSU for the SEC West crown will be intense.

I'm cutting my pre picks segment a little short this week. The more I think about last week, the more tears fill up my eyes, so I'm moving on to this week's games a little quicker.

And another disclaimer, this is one of the weakest week of games of the season, but I'd still appreciate the read.


The Bye(sexual)s

Vanderbilt- They could use the rest after a hard fought win against MTSU

Kentucky- Again, they were probably tired last week which is why their FCS cupcake game was a lot closer than expected.

Auburn- Probably the only week left in the season they won't be an underdog.

Texas A&M- Wouldn't want to face them next week.


The Timely Cupcakes

New Mexico State @ Ole Miss- If there's ever a good time to play arguably the worst team in the FBS, this is probably the best time for Ole Miss. They still control their own destiny, and they need to rebound in a hurry if they want to stay relevant in the SEC West, and I there's not many better teams to boost your confidence and take out your frustrations on than New Mexico State. Final Score: Ole Miss 67-10

Troy @ Mississippi State- Mississippi State had just worked their way back into the top 25 after beating Auburn, then they ran into a brick wall against Texas A&M. With two conference losses, Mississippi State's chances at the SEC West are likely finished, but they still have a lot to play for and moving the program forward. Troy isn't God awful, but they're not great either. Easy win for Miss State. Final Score: Mississippi State 42-17


Eh, At Least They're Conference Games


LSU @ South Carolina- I'll start this off by saying I hope everyone in the state of South Carolina has stayed safe in this unreal rain event. My thoughts a prayers are with you guys, even if you are South Carolina or Clemson fans. With all the road closures and sections of interstate washed out near the Columbia area, I'll be a bit surprised if this game isn't moved to another location. As for the game itself, South Carolina has looked anemic on offense all season, and their defense hasn't been much better. They only allowed 24 to Mizzou, but that's like giving up 50 to any other P5 team. I just don't see South Carolina as being able to stop Fournette, and whatever QB South Carolina decides to use this week will likely be chased around the backfield all night which will lead to a lot of sacks, bad throws and possibly turnovers. In years past this would have been an easy game of the week, but for now, South Carolina is just too down. Final Score: LSU 45-10

Arkansas @ Alabama- Just when Arkansas finally gets a win, a conference win on the road, no less they have to travel to Tuscaloosa to face a Alabama team coming off of a huge road win against Georgia. I don't think Arkansas will be able to run the ball against Bama. Nick Chubb couldn't aside from one garbage time run, and Nick Chubb is better than anything Arkansas can throw at Bama's front 7, and Georgia's offensive line had looked great before Bama came to town, and I don't see Arkansas being able to beat many teams throwing the ball this season. This was a very close game last season, but Arkansas seems to have regressed a bit, and Alabama is still hungry. Alabama will play their usual smash mouth, run right at you ball game and come away with a fairly easy win. Final Score: Alabama 38-14


It's Embarrassing, I Know, but Co Game of the Week


Florida @ Missouri- This is Missouri's season right here. If they lose to Florida this weekend, their chances of three peating the SEC East are essentially over. They would trail Florida by two games and Florida would have the tiebreaker. Missouri hasn't looked great this season. They've struggled mightily on offense, and despite the win last week, they continued to struggle. They're running into a bit of a buzz saw and the hottest team in the division right now, the surprisingly 5-0, Florida Gators. If Missouri wants to win, they're gonna have to play lights out defense, find a way to get something going on offense. If their run game is ever going to get started this season, there's no better time than now, because I don't like the idea of Matty Mauk or Drew Lock being faced with having to beat Florida and their strong secondary through the air.

For Florida, the game plan is pretty simple. Play solid defense like you've done all season, and keep a weak looking offense looking weak. I doubt Florida has been more confident since the Tim Tebow days. They've got all the momentum in the world. I mean, they did just knock off the third ranked team in the country by 28 points, and that wasn't a good indicator of how lopsided the game really was. Grier looked awesome at quarterback, and their defense scares me as a Georgia fan.

As for the game, I really don't expect anything too shocking in this one. I think Florida's defense will shut Missouri down just like weak defenses have done all season. If both defenses play strong and it turns into a down and dirty low scoring game, I still like Florida's chances because I trust their defense more than I do Mizzou's. Really, I don't think this game will be close. I look for Florida to punch Mizzou in the mouth early and keep rolling. Final Score: Florida 35-6

 

[Chewbaccer]

Game of the Week(Again, Embarrassing, I Know)


Georgia @ Tennessee- The pickings were pretty slim this week. We have four teams on a bye week, two teams playing cupcakes, and the conference games really are unimpressive this week. I gave the nod to Georgia vs Tennessee simply because there is a bit of a rivalry there, and each of the last two seasons, the game has gone to the last second and were exciting games to watch. Both of these teams are coming off of devastating losses. Tennessee's was devastating because it was against Arkansas, and came the week after they blew a big lead against Florida. Georgia's was devastating because they got their ass handed to them at home by Alabama. Both teams must rebound and must rebound in a hurry. Tennessee already has two conference losses and are likely out of contention for the SEC crown, but last year they took a big step forwards with a 7 win campaign, if they want to build on that, this Saturday is a must win game just for the sake of the program going forward. Tennessee is a better team than Arkansas, I think they just responded poorly after the Florida loss. If Tennessee wants to win, they must put the last two weeks behind them and pretend the season is starting anew. They have the talent on offense, but they need to get their three talented wide receivers going and take the load off of Hurd and Kamara at running back. And this one is huge. If they get a lead, they can't take their foot off the gas. This has already bit them hard against both Oklahoma and Florida. Had they closed out those two games, we're likely talking about a 5-0 Tennessee team ranked in the top 5 instead of a 2-3 Tennessee team who's season hangs in the balance.

For Georgia, much like Tennessee, they need to forget about last week. They still control their own destiny in the East, and I hope Mark Richt tells the team that they lost by 28 against South Carolina in 2012 and came within 5 yards of playing for a national championship. Their season isn't over with one loss, but if it snowballs and they fall to Tennessee this weekend, I see a total free fall and Mark Richt being out of a job at season's end. Grayson Lambert took a big step backwards last week. He needs to find some confidence again like he found against South Carolina. I'd say Brice Ramsey should start, but as hard as it is to believe, he played worse than Lambert against Alabama. I feel like Georgia abandoned the run way too early against Bama as well. Lambert is best when Chubb and Michel are moving the ball and he can use play action effectively. Tennessee has some talent on defense, but their front 7 isn't near as good as Bama's. Run Chubb and Michel at them and make them stop them. If Chubb needs an 85 yard run late in the game to keep his streak of 100+ yard games going, I don't like Georgia's chances. If Georgia is moving the chains on the ground, their chances skyrocket.

For the game, to me it just comes down to which team can bounce back the fastest. Tennessee lost last week because they let the Florida loss snowball on them. I'm sure they're lacking confidence right now, but they need to remember that in 2013, Pig Howard fumbled trying to reach the ball over the goal line fore the winning TD to give Georgia an overtime win, and last year, had Tennessee not lost their starting QB for a good chunk of the game, they likely would have came out on top. Georgia has a 6 year winning streak against Tennessee, but the last two seasons, Tennessee has given Georgia all they can handle and a lot of the players from those games remain for Tennessee. But really, I don't think Tennessee will be nearly as effective as Bama with stopping Georgia's run game, and if Georgia is running the ball, play action has worked for Lambert this season. Georgia's defense didn't play bad against Bama. A blocked punt, a pick 6 lead directly to 14 of Bama's 38 points, and Bama had short fields off of two other interceptions. If anything, Georgia's defense was their highlight of the game, and I just don't see Tennessee as having an o-line comparable to Bama's. If this were any other conference game(that hasn't already been played), I doubt I'd be picking Georgia to win, but Tennessee has hit an even rougher patch, and I'm not sure Tennessee can recover. It won't be a blowout, but I don't think Georgia will ever be in jeopardy of losing. Final Score: Georgia 28-17


The Next Best 3


Northwestern @ Michigan- Both of these teams have been a bit of a surprise for me. I never thought I'd see Northwestern undefeated after 5 weeks, and I never thought I'd see Michigan ranked after 5 weeks. That's why we play the games I guess. Both of these teams have been impressive on defense, and I don't expect a high scoring affair in this one. I would have to give Michigan the edge on offense though, and that's why I'm picking them to win. That, and they're at home. Final Score: Michigan 24-21

California @ Utah- Gameday makes a stop at this one Saturday morning. Both of these teams are coming in undefeated, and both are leading their divisions in the Pac 12 at the moment. Utah's last game was two weeks ago when they went into Eugene and completely obliterated Oregon. Cal is coming off a close win against Washington State. Both teams are undefeated, but Cal has been playing some real tight games against somewhat weak competition. Texas was an extra point away from forcing OT, and both Washington schools gave them a tight game. To me Utah has looked like the better team, and I think this will go down as anoth quality win for the Utes. Final Score: Utah 38-27

Navy @ Notre Dame- I like to try to keep at least one ranked team in each of the Next Best 3 games, and it was either this one or the Red River Shoot Out, and Texas is just too down this year to make the list regardless of the great history of the rivalry. Notre Dame is coming off of a tough loss on the road against Clemson where their comeback bid fell just short. The domers have looked impressive this season, even with so many starters, including their QB, Zaire going down to injury. They are a talented team, and they'll be looking to rebound after a game that probably won't be looked at as a bad loss. Navy is coming in undefeated, and they've been winning in convincing fashion. But Notre Dame has already proven they can stop the triple option when they beat Georgia Tech fairly easily, and Georgia Tech is running the triple option with more talented players than Navy is. I look for Notre Dame to win fairly easily. Final Score: Notre Dame 48-21

 

[ktg8trgrl]

this just in ... I just saw on the penis that Matty Mauk has been suspended indefinitely from the team.. I don't know how much of an impact it's going to be but .. it is what it is

 

[Chewbaccer]

this just in ... I just saw on the penis that Matty Mauk has been suspended indefinitely from the team.. I don't know how much of an impact it's going to be but .. it is what it is

You saw it on what now?

 

[ktg8trgrl]

You saw it on what now?

the penis... ya know ESPN

 

[mutiger]

You realize that Florida has looked good once this year right? Their defense was so great the last 2 years as well......Mizzou beat the shit out of them both years. BTW- Florida is coming off big win over an overrated Ole Miss team and plays LSU next week.....probably due for a let down.

 

[Gator]

You realize that Florida has looked good once this year right? Their defense was so great the last 2 years as well......Mizzou beat the shit out of them both years.

Yep, #5 Missouri beat 4-7 Florida and #14 Missouri beat 7-5 Florida.

BTW- Florida is coming off big win over an overrated Ole Miss team and plays LSU next week.....probably due for a let down.

Question is, "Is the team that beat (2-3-0) Southeast Mo. St. 34-3, beat (2-3-0) Arkansas St.27-20, beat (2-3-0) Connecticut 9-6,beat (2-3-0) South Carolina 24-10, and lost to (4-1-0) Kentucky 13-21 actually good enough to beat a 5-0 Florida team "that is due for a let down"?" My guess is no, but we'll see Saturday. On the bright side for Mizzou is that Matty Mauk is out.

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

You realize that Florida has looked good once this year right? Their defense was so great the last 2 years as well......Mizzou beat the shit out of them both years. BTW- Florida is coming off big win over an overrated Ole Miss team and plays LSU next week.....probably due for a let down.

You do know Missouri probably won't score TDs on kick returns, punt returns, fumble returns and pick 6s this year. That's what even helped them win that game. Other than that, you had no success on offense last year, and are even worse this year.

 

[mutiger]

Yep, #5 Missouri beat 4-7 Florida and #14 Missouri beat 7-5 Florida.



Question is, "Is the team that beat (2-3-0) Southeast Mo. St. 34-3, beat (2-3-0) Arkansas St.27-20, beat (2-3-0) Connecticut 9-6,beat (2-3-0) South Carolina 24-10, and lost to (4-1-0) Kentucky 13-21 actually good enough to beat a 5-0 Florida team "that is due for a let down"?" My guess is no, but we'll see Saturday. On the bright side for Mizzou is that Matty Mauk is out.

Get ready for a big letdown Gator

 

[mutiger]

You do know Missouri probably won't score TDs on kick returns, punt returns, fumble returns and pick 6s this year. That's what even helped them win that game. Other than that, you had no success on offense last year, and are even worse this year.

Mizzou didn't need to do anything on offense last year, plus the offense was also given short fields. We scored a TD off a short field.....had another TD called back on a terrible offensive PI call (settled for FG). Mizzou was up 42-0 in 3rd.

Offense is better than last year, now that Lock is at QB and Hansbrough is getting healthy

 

[mutiger]

Yep, #5 Missouri beat 4-7 Florida and #14 Missouri beat 7-5 Florida.

Mizzou finished #14. Mizzou came into that game after losing to Indiana, needing a 2 TD comeback to beat South Carolina and then losing 34-0 to Georgia. Florida was favored to win. Perception was that Mizzou wasn't any good last year after their start

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

My Predictions of these above:

Bye weeks: no one cares

Cupcakes: again no one cares

LSU @ South Carolina: South Carolina will somehow hang around but every time they get too close a timely Fournette run allows LSU to get a safe gap again. 31-21 LSU

Arkansas @ Alabama: Arkansas' offense doesn't match up well, it will be a long day for them. Alabama 42-10

Florida @ Missouri: Missouri's defense is tough, but their offense sucks. Florida 24-6

Georgia @ Tennessee: Georgia has problems passing, and Tennessee can't finish. Tennessee holds a 21-14 lead with two minutes left, Nick Chubb breaks off a 64 yard TD run to tie it up, then Tennessee turns it over and Georgia kicks a game winning field goal to win. 24-21 Georgia

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Mizzou didn't need to do anything on offense last year, plus the offense was also given short fields. We scored a TD off a short field.....had another TD called back on a terrible offensive PI call (settled for FG). Mizzou was up 42-0 in 3rd.

Offense is better than last year, now that Lock is at QB and Hansbrough is getting healthy

You were given short fields yet scored only 13 points that weren't return TDs, that's pretty bad, and you won't be given such great field position this year as Florida's offense is actually competent this year.

a healthy Hansbrough ran for 35 yards on 13 carries last year, 2.6 yards a carry.

 

[mutiger]

Florida has a competent offense because they looked good against Ole Miss? How did they look vs East Carolina and Kentucky?

Unreal that somebody wants to mock a team that won 42-13 on the road. Look up Florida's yards vs Mizzou the last 2 years

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Florida has a competent offense because they looked good against Ole Miss? How did they look vs East Carolina and Kentucky?

Unreal that somebody wants to mock a team that won 42-13 on the road. Look up Florida's yards vs Mizzou the last 2 years

Again the 42-13 score was a result of Florida's incompetence

I'm not saying their offense is good, I'm just saying they won't turn it over 4 or 5 times and have as many special teams breakdowns as they did last year.

How did Missouri look against Kentucky?

 

[mutiger]

Again the 42-13 score was a result of Florida's incompetence

I'm not saying their offense is good, I'm just saying they won't turn it over 4 or 5 times and have as many special teams breakdowns as they did last year.

How did Missouri look against Kentucky?

Mauk was QB, doesn't matter

 

[mutiger]

So Mizzou defense had nothing to do with it

 

[BoiseStateFan27]

Mauk was QB, doesn't matter

You only put up 24 on South Carolina's terrible defense with Lock as the QB

UCF who has lost several players to injury has quite possibly the worst offense in college football and even they found a way to put up two touchdowns on South Carolina.

 

[Runeman]

Florida is a very young team with a very young quarterback. We shall see if that team is the same team that struggled early or a team in transition that is much better on both sides of the ball. I see good things for Florida; especially next year; although this year has been a very welcome surprise, given the Muschamp years.

 

[ktg8trgrl]

You realize that Florida has looked good once this year right? Their defense was so great the last 2 years as well......Mizzou beat the shit out of them both years. BTW- Florida is coming off big win over an overrated Ole Miss team and plays LSU next week.....probably due for a let down.

actually they have been improving week to week.. but sometimes FL has a lil bi polar disorder so it just depends on which FL team shows up... if they are mentally there and in the game.. Mizzou will lose.. if they are a lil on the psycho side.. our D will still keep us in the game.. but either way you just need one more point then your opponent to win and at this time I'll take it.. beggars can't be choosers