Seahawks vs 49ers vs Falcons

[catchbluefish]

Also Vegas believes the Hawks and 49ers are better than the Falcons. They are in this to make money, not play fan favorites.

That says a lot. San Fran/Seattle are roughly 2x better than Atlanta according to odds, which ties PERFECTLY with my 8/9 Seattle San Fran ratio vs. the 4 best players Atlanta ratio.

No offense but this is just about the perfect post to illustrate
How most people have no idea how odds are set. Getting people to bet is certainly about making money and that is what Vegas is all about. The odds are all about how people bet and most people know as much about quantum physics as they do about football.

 

[TheDeeble]

These posts kill me. The Falcons defense is VASTLY inferior to Seattle and San Fran talent wise. Seattle and San Fran's O-Lines are better. I don't get how 4 of 22 starters ranked better than Seattle/San Frans teams somehow make Atlanta #2... someone please explain to me.

SS: Seattle
FS: Seattle
CB #1/2: Seattle
OLB: San 7Fran
MLB: San Fran
MLB 2: San Fran
OLB: San Fran
DT: Seattle
DT: ?
DE: San Fran
DE: Seattle
OT: Seattle
OT: San Fran
OG: San Fran
OG: Atlanta
C: Seattle/San Fran
WR: Atlanta
WR: Atlanta
TE: Close but Atlanta for now.
RB: Seattle/San Fran
FB: Whatever
QB: Let's just say Atlanta

San Fran: 8/9
Seattle: 8/9
Atlanta: 4

Seattle and San Fran are eons above Atlanta. If a WR like Harvin goes down for Seattle, whatever. If Crabtree goes down for San Fran whatever. If Jones goes down for Atlanta LOL GG, incoming 8-8 team at best.

Atlanta basically got rocked twice at home. San Fran punked them and Seattle basically did with nearly 500 yards of offense and their #1 pass rusher out. Seattle has improved this offseason, San Fran is still able to punk Atlanta.

Put Atlanta IN Seattle. Incoming 42-21 blowout. Put Atlanta IN San Fran. Incoming 42-21 blowout. Both San Fran and Seattle proved they could hang on the road, long flight, vastly different timezone with the overrated Falcons.

I can't wait to watch Atlanta go 9-7 this year as New Orleans re-claims the throne. Going to be a lot of butt hurt fans.

Atlanta does not scare me at all. The offense is nowhere near as prolific as New Orleans with HC Peyton back and the defense for Atlanta blows monkey ****. There is not a single player on that D that scares me and they by far lost their best player in Witherspoon.

Incoming Saints #2 without the offense = Atlanta. Mark my words, 9-7 at best. Possibly 8-8 with the hungry NFC South. I could see the Bucs OR Panthers edging them.

Ummmmm didn't Atlanta just beat Seattle in the playoffs? Also added Jackson and Osi. Seattle will fall off this year count on it.

 

[TheDeeble]

Also Vegas believes the Hawks and 49ers are better than the Falcons. They are in this to make money, not play fan favorites.

That says a lot. San Fran/Seattle are roughly 2x better than Atlanta according to odds, which ties PERFECTLY with my 8/9 Seattle San Fran ratio vs. the 4 best players Atlanta ratio.

What was Baltimores odds last year? And Vegas odds to care about fanboys odds are adjusted based on where the money goes.

 

[catchbluefish]

What was Baltimores odds last year? And Vegas odds to care about fanboys odds are adjusted based on where the money goes.

This!

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Agree with everything you said and appreciate the 'correction' if you will on some of my views of how the game panned out.

I still do not see Ryan as an elite QB talent and undoubtedly never will, not that you ever said that (just making a general comment). He's above average and I see him staying that way.

Elite QB...debatable...but more importantly, I think you can win a SB with him.

On that thought...I think the term "elite QB" is the most over used, seldom explained in the NFL...that makes it subjective and we know where that goes...it's an opinion. I would rank Ryan in the top 8 QBs in the NFL right now.

 

[cdumler7]

These posts kill me. The Falcons defense is VASTLY inferior to Seattle and San Fran talent wise. Seattle and San Fran's O-Lines are better. I don't get how 4 of 22 starters ranked better than Seattle/San Frans teams somehow make Atlanta #2... someone please explain to me.

SS: Seattle
FS: Seattle
CB #1/2: Seattle
OLB: San 7Fran
MLB: San Fran
MLB 2: San Fran
OLB: San Fran
DT: Seattle
DT: ?
DE: San Fran
DE: Seattle
OT: Seattle
OT: San Fran
OG: San Fran
OG: Atlanta
C: Seattle/San Fran
WR: Atlanta
WR: Atlanta
TE: Close but Atlanta for now.
RB: Seattle/San Fran
FB: Whatever
QB: Let's just say Atlanta

San Fran: 8/9
Seattle: 8/9
Atlanta: 4

Seattle and San Fran are eons above Atlanta. If a WR like Harvin goes down for Seattle, whatever. If Crabtree goes down for San Fran whatever. If Jones goes down for Atlanta LOL GG, incoming 8-8 team at best.

Atlanta basically got rocked twice at home. San Fran punked them and Seattle basically did with nearly 500 yards of offense and their #1 pass rusher out. Seattle has improved this offseason, San Fran is still able to punk Atlanta.

Put Atlanta IN Seattle. Incoming 42-21 blowout. Put Atlanta IN San Fran. Incoming 42-21 blowout. Both San Fran and Seattle proved they could hang on the road, long flight, vastly different timezone with the overrated Falcons.

I can't wait to watch Atlanta go 9-7 this year as New Orleans re-claims the throne. Going to be a lot of butt hurt fans.

Atlanta does not scare me at all. The offense is nowhere near as prolific as New Orleans with HC Peyton back and the defense for Atlanta blows monkey ****. There is not a single player on that D that scares me and they by far lost their best player in Witherspoon.

Incoming Saints #2 without the offense = Atlanta. Mark my words, 9-7 at best. Possibly 8-8 with the hungry NFC South. I could see the Bucs OR Panthers edging them.

First off on these rankings by position I would say having a Seahawks fan try to objectively judge who is the best at each position is pretty laughable as especially on these boards they seem right near the top in homerism. Second you talk about how Seattle and San Fran got better yet choose to ignore the additions the Falcons made in Steven Jackson (who has been 10x more consistent than either of the running backs for the other two), Osi (should add some pass rush), added to their secondary, and a whole host of other moves. To say that the Falcons haven't improved or at least made some moves to try and improve is just ignorant.

Really at this point of the 3 teams Seattle has the most to prove. One good year does not all of a sudden get you instant respect around the NFL as all of a sudden being this power house team. You got beat fair and square by the Falcons and in all actuality if RGIII doesn't go down should have been beaten the week before by the Redskins.

 

[SonnyCID]

No offense but this is just about the perfect post to illustrate
How most people have no idea how odds are set. Getting people to bet is certainly about making money and that is what Vegas is all about. The odds are all about how people bet and most people know as much about quantum physics as they do about football.

Vegas makes lines to split the money. But Its not as simple as youre making it out to be. Theyre not just dealing with suckers and fanboys, but also with extremelly knowledgable syndicates and pro bettors. NFL lines are as Sharp as any in sports because they need to be in order to find that true middle.

As far as futures like what we are talking about now, they are more of a reflection of Sharp bettors and what they like. To this point (mid-August), they have been the majority of bets since these lines came out in the spring. Now that the season is approaching, we will see the lines move as more and more homers bet on their teams.

 

[catchbluefish]

Vegas makes lines to split the money. But Its not as simple as youre making it out to be. Theyre not just dealing with suckers and fanboys, but also with extremelly knowledgable syndicates and pro bettors. NFL lines are as Sharp as any in sports because they need to be in order to find that true middle.

As far as futures like what we are talking about now, they are more of a reflection of Sharp bettors and what they like. To this point (mid-August), they have been the majority of bets since these lines came out in the spring. Now that the season is approaching, we will see the lines move as more and more homers bet on their teams.

Most of what you say is true....except, no, not even the most knowledgeable people have any idea what situation a team might find itself a week from now, never mind months in advance of an event. Anyone betting money now is just taking a shot in the dark, having fun as a fan, or just a complete idiot. There are some people (a very small group) that can make a living betting but those guys aren't betting any money now except on hunches and know they are probably throwing their money away.

The odds are created in order to get people to bet, not who the creator of those odds thinks is going to win; whatever their opinion of that is, that is irrelevant to what they are trying to accomplish. If you want to say that odds are useful information because they reflect what people who bet think will happen, but then you need to make the case why you think those people have any idea what is going to really happen.

 

[SonnyCID]

Most of what you say is true....except, no, not even the most knowledgeable people have any idea what situation a team might find itself a week from now, never mind months in advance of an event. Anyone betting money now is just taking a shot in the dark, having fun as a fan, or just a complete idiot. There are some people (a very small group) that can make a living betting but those guys aren't betting any money now except on hunches and know they are probably throwing their money away.

The odds are created in order to get people to bet, not who the creator of those odds thinks is going to win; whatever their opinion of that is, that is irrelevant to what they are trying to accomplish. If you want to say that odds are useful information because they reflect what people who bet think will happen, but then you need to make the case why you think those people have any idea what is going to really happen.

There are organizations out there that have deep pockets and can actually compete with sportsbooks. And these guys love future bets. Suckers dont bet until Sunday morning.

In fact, most of the money in the spring and summer comes from these guys because the average bettor is not yet interested. The reason why the early odds are what they are is because these guys are dictating the market. Vegas doesn't want those deep pockets to bet on SF, Seattle or Denver, so they set the odds to sway them away from those teams. Why would they not want them to bet on them? I'm not saying that they are predicting a SB win by those teams, but they certainly dont want to leave themselves vulnerable in case that does happen. And these guys dont bet on teams, they bet on numbers, and a good number in June is no different than a good number in October. You just need to be able to spot them, and 99% of of bettors cant do that. But that 1% that can carry a ton of weight.

I agree that they are trying to balance the action...... But who exactly are they looking to balance between? A sportsbook needs to know who and how much is betting or else they leave themselves vulnerable to organizations that can clean house on them if they are simply trying to split the number of bettors. For example, if team (a) backers provide 70% of the bettors on a game, but team (b) has 60% of the money on the game, the books risk taking a bath if they are just trying to find the middle. This why we see lines move.

 

[catchbluefish]

My final 2 cents on this: how future bets are determined and how the odds you get from you bookie to bet on individual games are 2 completely different things, but they intended to do essentially the same thing: balance the money that is being bet roughly equally between the teams that win and lose.

And no sophisticated gambler is ever going to bet on a particular team to win (unless he knows the game or result is fixed) and that is as true for future bets as it is for individual games. What he is going to do is make a range of bets based on the odds that are set that will result in him making a net profit. Which is why the SB winner is almost always within the top 10 teams on the board, but its just as likely that anyone of those teams will actually win the SB and sophisticated bettors know they can't actually pick with certainty who wins.

They do roughly the same thing in the commodities market; the difference is that as crazy as those markets are, sports betting is even less predictable

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

First off on these rankings by position I would say having a Seahawks fan try to objectively judge who is the best at each position is pretty laughable as especially on these boards they seem right near the top in homerism. Second you talk about how Seattle and San Fran got better yet choose to ignore the additions the Falcons made in Steven Jackson (who has been 10x more consistent than either of the running backs for the other two), Osi (should add some pass rush), added to their secondary, and a whole host of other moves. To say that the Falcons haven't improved or at least made some moves to try and improve is just ignorant.

Really at this point of the 3 teams Seattle has the most to prove. One good year does not all of a sudden get you instant respect around the NFL as all of a sudden being this power house team. You got beat fair and square by the Falcons and in all actuality if RGIII doesn't go down should have been beaten the week before by the Redskins.

Are you f'ing kidding? Seahawks fan? Homer? Dude, take off the blinders.

Osi and Steven Jackson? Are you F'ING KIDDING ME? So you're arguing Steven Jackson is better than Lynch+depth + Gore+Depth + Jackons+nobody?

One good year does not get you respect? Who is 'you'? I don't own the Hawks, I don't manage them, I'm just looking as a football fan inside. It's obvious that the 9ers/Hawks have a far superior football team. RG3 blah blah blah, I guess all of football is played in the first quarter like how your Falcons got their butts wooped in the second half yet won. What a hypocritical comment. So the Redskins should've owned us because RG3 went down yet the Falcons were legit because Chris Clemons doesn't count and the Seahawks D choked, but it's all good cause you're a Falcons fan. What a joke... you're posting the kind of sh.it (there's no better word for it) that loses forums like these credibility.

You've owned yourself. Pathetic, I really expected more from these boards.

 

[catchbluefish]

Are you f'ing kidding? Seahawks fan? Homer? Dude, take off the blinders.

Osi and Steven Jackson? Are you F'ING KIDDING ME? So you're arguing Steven Jackson is better than Lynch+depth + Gore+Depth + Jackons+nobody?

One good year does not get you respect? Who is 'you'? I don't own the Hawks, I don't manage them, I'm just looking as a football fan inside. It's obvious that the 9ers/Hawks have a far superior football team. RG3 blah blah blah, I guess all of football is played in the first quarter like how your Falcons got their butts wooped in the second half yet won. What a hypocritical comment. So the Redskins should've owned us because RG3 went down yet the Falcons were legit because Chris Clemons doesn't count and the Seahawks D choked, but it's all good cause you're a Falcons fan. What a joke... you're posting the kind of sh.it (there's no better word for it) that loses forums like these credibility.

You've owned yourself. Pathetic, I really expected more from these boards.

No one on this board owns any piece of their favorite sports team (I guess that is not quite true concerning pack fans...kinda).

And you have a point that far too many of us feel they should be able to take personal credit when our team does well and get crap from other fans when something goes wrong even though none of us can take any credit or blame really but,

concerning the "team" (the seahawks I am talking about) they are clearly a very talented team and last year they had a pretty good year. But they had a losing record the year before, were not particularly great outside their own stadium at least until that last part of the year, its questionable if they would have even played atlanta if RGIII hadn't gone done and did lose to atlanta. BTW I think they are in the best division in football now but for years they were were the absolute pits of the nfl with the division winner just a couple of years ago (your team) losing more games than they won and still won the division.

All that said is that fans of the team have a lot of reason for optimism. The rest of us need more proof they are for real

 

[Money]

This thread could be titled Seahawks vs Seahawks vs Seahawks and Seahawks fans would be on here arguing back and forth amongst themselves.

 

[cdumler7]

Are you f'ing kidding? Seahawks fan? Homer? Dude, take off the blinders.

Osi and Steven Jackson? Are you F'ING KIDDING ME? So you're arguing Steven Jackson is better than Lynch+depth + Gore+Depth + Jackons+nobody?

One good year does not get you respect? Who is 'you'? I don't own the Hawks, I don't manage them, I'm just looking as a football fan inside. It's obvious that the 9ers/Hawks have a far superior football team. RG3 blah blah blah, I guess all of football is played in the first quarter like how your Falcons got their butts wooped in the second half yet won. What a hypocritical comment. So the Redskins should've owned us because RG3 went down yet the Falcons were legit because Chris Clemons doesn't count and the Seahawks D choked, but it's all good cause you're a Falcons fan. What a joke... you're posting the kind of sh.it (there's no better word for it) that loses forums like these credibility.

You've owned yourself. Pathetic, I really expected more from these boards.

I would hope you could understand that "You" is the team not you personally. I could give a rats behind whether you get respect or not. Also not a Falcons fan just a fan looking at all 3 teams I would say they are all very close in talent with each of them having different strengths. For Atlanta they could have the best offensive set of weapons in the NFL right now from quarterback, running back, TE, and receivers. Defensively they could struggle though where the other two teams are more balanced on both sides of the ball. It also does help for Atlanta that they are in a bit of a weaker division (although NFC South is no slouch either).

Like I said right now I believe the Falcons and 49ers have both proven to deserve being near the top where again one good season should leave some to question whether a team can continue that success or not. Throw in going 3-5 on the road should make some wonder if the Seahawks do not have homefield throughout the playoffs can they really compete for a Superbowl? I guess I just have more questions about the Seahawks than I do about the other 2 teams.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I would hope you could understand that "You" is the team not you personally. I could give a rats behind whether you get respect or not. Also not a Falcons fan just a fan looking at all 3 teams I would say they are all very close in talent with each of them having different strengths. For Atlanta they could have the best offensive set of weapons in the NFL right now from quarterback, running back, TE, and receivers. Defensively they could struggle though where the other two teams are more balanced on both sides of the ball. It also does help for Atlanta that they are in a bit of a weaker division (although NFC South is no slouch either).

Like I said right now I believe the Falcons and 49ers have both proven to deserve being near the top where again one good season should leave some to question whether a team can continue that success or not. Throw in going 3-5 on the road should make some wonder if the Seahawks do not have homefield throughout the playoffs can they really compete for a Superbowl? I guess I just have more questions about the Seahawks than I do about the other 2 teams.

Guess this is where we agree to disagree. I feel the Falcons are overrated, have a bunch of has beens on their team, and are led by a weak QB who fails to close out games. That was my stance when Seattle was putting up a 4-12 record so it has nothing to do with being butt hurt about someone ranking the Falcons higher. The Falcons runningback...

HOLD on a minute, did you really say BEST in the NFL? Oh come on... homerisms aside, that's just a dumb comment. I guess you'll be the 1 out of 12,932,211 drafting Steven Jackson #1 overall given the opportunity in FF this year. Congrats. Whatever. My brain just lexpolkdfjdfifdfkfkfjdafkljasdf.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

I feel like people aren't giving the Falcons as much credit as they deserve. They dominated both Seattle and San Fran in the first half of their playoffs games and have only improved this offseason. I feel like if they had a wrecking ball like Jackson in both games instead of that butterball Turner they might have closed both games off. Sure their D is not in the same league as Seattle or SF, but it's a really serviceable defense that is above average. When you have an offense as ridiculously good at Atlanta's you don't need a shutdown D like SF and Seattle have. You can win with "bend but don't break" D.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

I feel like people aren't giving the Falcons as much credit as they deserve. They dominated both Seattle and San Fran in the first half of their playoffs games and have only improved this offseason. I feel like if they had a wrecking ball like Jackson in both games instead of that butterball Turner they might have closed both games off. Sure their D is not in the same league as Seattle or SF, but it's a really serviceable defense that is above average. When you have an offense as ridiculously good at Atlanta's you don't need a shutdown D like SF and Seattle have. You can win with "bend but don't break" D.

I can agree with this but football games aren't won in the first half. And yes Matt Ryan punked Seattle on the last drive but Atlanta let Seattle back in that game SO quickly it was ridiculous. This being AT home, against a Seattle team with their best pass rusher out while everyone on Atlanta was healthy (at least in terms of 'playmakers'). San Fran just outright beat em up second half.

Put this game in Seattle or San Fran and it's a blowout. My point all along. If the game is in Seattle it's a 42-21 type of win for Seattle and against San Fran the same thing.

Atlanta does not have the defense and depth to hang with these types of teams consistently. Goes back to my point. Percy Harvin goes down. Who cares? Michael Crabtree goes down. Who cares? Roddy White OR Julio Jones go down, Falcons are F'd.

Just a matter of time before the Falcons become irrelevant. And I'm going to predict this year. Saints are going to overrun the Falcons and the Panthers/Bucs are going to be biting at the ankles. I give Falcons a 9-7 AT BEST this year.

I will be saving this thread and bumping when it happens. I'm happy to eat crow if it doesn't, but if you're going to make a STUPID post and call me out now, you better get your butt back here in 6 months. I will be bumping and discrediting EVERYONE that doesn't show up.

One thing to make a bad prediction and say you were wrong, another to make a bad prediction and never show up. THAT is trolling and I can already sense we have a TON of trolls on this forum.

 

[KwitYerWhinin]

I can agree with this but football games aren't won in the first half. And yes Matt Ryan punked Seattle on the last drive but Atlanta let Seattle back in that game SO quickly it was ridiculous. This being AT home, against a Seattle team with their best pass rusher out while everyone on Atlanta was healthy (at least in terms of 'playmakers'). San Fran just outright beat em up second half.

Put this game in Seattle or San Fran and it's a blowout. My point all along. If the game is in Seattle it's a 42-21 type of win for Seattle and against San Fran the same thing.

Atlanta does not have the defense and depth to hang with these types of teams consistently. Goes back to my point. Percy Harvin goes down. Who cares? Michael Crabtree goes down. Who cares? Roddy White OR Julio Jones go down, Falcons are F'd.

Just a matter of time before the Falcons become irrelevant. And I'm going to predict this year. Saints are going to overrun the Falcons and the Panthers/Bucs are going to be biting at the ankles. I give Falcons a 9-7 AT BEST this year.

I will be saving this thread and bumping when it happens. I'm happy to eat crow if it doesn't, but if you're going to make a STUPID post and call me out now, you better get your butt back here in 6 months. I will be bumping and discrediting EVERYONE that doesn't show up.

One thing to make a bad prediction and say you were wrong, another to make a bad prediction and never show up. THAT is trolling and I can already sense we have a TON of trolls on this forum.

Funny how you say you arent a little homer, its true seahawk fans have been the biggest homer trolls on all the boards since late last year..weird too since you won 11 games, not 16...it was 11 kids not exactly the most impressive record ever..maybe it is for seattle...as you have read here, not many outside of seattle are all that sold on the seahawks..If it was my money, I would bet on Atlanta over the hawks any day of the week..they are just a far more mature team with every bit as much talent if not far more. the seahawks act way too immature to really win anything, right from PC on down...reminds me of the chargers a few years ago...they did have some talent for a while but were just a very immature bunch and never made it work for them. if anyone is going 9-7 this year I would bet on it being seattle. I predict that none of your predictions come true

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Funny how you say you arent a little homer, its true seahawk fans have been the biggest homer trolls on all the boards since late last year..weird too since you won 11 games, not 16...it was 11 kids not exactly the most impressive record ever..maybe it is for seattle...as you have read here, not many outside of seattle are all that sold on the seahawks..If it was my money, I would bet on Atlanta over the hawks any day of the week..they are just a far more mature team with every bit as much talent if not far more. the seahawks act way too immature to really win anything, right from PC on down...reminds me of the chargers a few years ago...they did have some talent for a while but were just a very immature bunch and never made it work for them. if anyone is going 9-7 this year I would bet on it being seattle. I predict that none of your predictions come true

All opinion which is fine. Little fact if any. Little fact of what Seattle did the Falcons at home with their defensive star pass rusher out with an additional week of play, etc.

You're entitled to your opinion, but it's a pretty lame one lol.

Seattle 9-7 this year? I actually wouldn't be surprised at that. I could easily see Seattle going 9-7 this year with 5 (I believe) 10AM starts, a lot of travel, and an unproven QB. That's not my argument if you had read my posts. My argument was the Falcons are vastly overrated and on par if not worse than Seattle, hence my stance they will go 9-7 at best.

Again,

Kind of miss the ESPN boards, at least people either identified they were stupid early on or put up good arguments.

 

[Southieinnc]

All opinion which is fine. Little fact if any. Little fact of what Seattle did the Falcons at home with their defensive star pass rusher out with an additional week of play, etc.

You're entitled to your opinion, but it's a pretty lame one lol.

Seattle 9-7 this year? I actually wouldn't be surprised at that. I could easily see Seattle going 9-7 this year with 5 (I believe) 10AM starts, a lot of travel, and an unproven QB. That's not my argument if you had read my posts. My argument was the Falcons are vastly overrated and on par if not worse than Seattle, hence my stance they will go 9-7 at best.

Again,

Kind of miss the ESPN boards, at least people either identified they were stupid early on or put up good arguments.

At least YOU have identified you are stupid early!

Everybody that disagrees with you is stupid or lame?

I like all 3 teams. You are arguing with Denver fans and Pats fans and whatever. I like the Seahawks but don't expect them to win the Superbowl, so I am an idiot?