Schedule leak

[CEH]

There are probably 10MM combinations of schedules that could be a selected
So yeah never going to get a perfect schedule

 

[CEH]

But it's all just an impartial algorithm!

No really otherwise all teams would be on SNF. I'm sure each team has a prime time weighting factor along with several other weighting factors

 

[iknowftbll]

No really otherwise all teams would be on SNF. I'm sure each team has a prime time weighting factor along with several other weighting factors

Owners also get to add in their requests, such as where they open or when they get their bye. Typically the league will allow the bye following a London trip but one of the teams that went to London last year passed on that. (I think it was the Colts.) There's a LOT that goes into the schedule, and a lot of it is human refinement.

 

[Mingo]

My schedule speech (trotted out each year). We won't know what the schedule is like until we play the games. Yes, 3 consecutive games on the road and short days between games because a national television need - are factors and challenges.

The actual outcome - of season after season - is more dependent upon the fact that injuries have a huge impact on games and teams that get hot or cold can do amazing or embarrassing things - as the season moves forward. The dynamic of the team's season dictates much of the schedule outcome.

 

[CEH]

Owners also get to add in their requests, such as where they open or when they get their bye. Typically the league will allow the bye following a London trip but one of the teams that went to London last year passed on that. (I think it was the Colts.) There's a LOT that goes into the schedule, and a lot of it is human refinement.

Up until about 10 years ago , MLB had one guy build their schedule.
Now they have contest every 5 years or so.

 

[iknowftbll]

Up until about 10 years ago , MLB had one guy build their schedule.
Now they have contest every 5 years or so.

I can't imagine building that schedule. That guy was probably a certifiable modeling genius!

 

[nflbronco]

Fox sports thinks we'll be 4-12 beating only SD twice Jets and Cincy. I could see another struggle season because of youth at QB new staff and voids in key areas etc, With our D we can only win 4 games come on.

 

[iknowftbll]

Fox sports thinks we'll be 4-12 beating only SD twice Jets and Cincy. I could see another struggle season because of youth at QB new staff and voids in key areas etc, With our D we can only win 4 games come on.

I get that it appears to be a tough slate based on last year's W-L records, but 2017 will be a totally different year. Unless this team gets decimated by injuries in training camp and preseason I don't know how anyone can justify a 4-12 prediction.

 

[MileHigh64]

Without knowing anything else (end of FA, draft, camp, injuries, etc.), I think the Broncos are an 8-10 win team. The defense is good enough to get us in that range. If the offense can take some nice strides forward, it might be at the upper end of that scale or higher.

 

[LGM]

Without knowing anything else (end of FA, draft, camp, injuries, etc.), I think the Broncos are an 8-10 win team. The defense is good enough to get us in that range. If the offense can take some nice strides forward, it might be at the upper end of that scale or higher.

I just can't realistically look at what McCoy has done in the past with players like Tebow and even Rivers, giving him an all pro year, then look at what we have at the skill positions and think our offense won't automatically improve.

The beauty of the McCoy offense (and apparently Vance's coaching style) is that we build around what we have, and the players dictate the scheme. As much as I'll always love Kubes for bringing us our 3rd Lombardi, he and his coaches were never great at that, and it took the brains and HOF qb to do that with a hybrid offense.

Without knowing what we'll do in the draft, via trade, or in FA, and given our current defense, I can't even fathom how we are a 4 win team.

Not to go quite as rosy as Mingo likes to, but not quite as pessimistic as Chris, Crash, or nflb...

I'm solidly in the 9-11 win season area.

 

[Mingo]

Rosey round the Mingo?

 

[LGM]

Rosey round the Mingo?

That's a nursery rhyme for the ages...

 

[iknowftbll]

I just can't realistically look at what McCoy has done in the past with players like Tebow and even Rivers, giving him an all pro year, then look at what we have at the skill positions and think our offense won't automatically improve.

The beauty of the McCoy offense (and apparently Vance's coaching style) is that we build around what we have, and the players dictate the scheme. As much as I'll always love Kubes for bringing us our 3rd Lombardi, he and his coaches were never great at that, and it took the brains and HOF qb to do that with a hybrid offense.

Without knowing what we'll do in the draft, via trade, or in FA, and given our current defense, I can't even fathom how we are a 4 win team.

Not to go quite as rosy as Mingo likes to, but not quite as pessimistic as Chris, Crash, or nflb...

I'm solidly in the 9-11 win season area.

This post is pure gold. I'm not about to claim the Broncos are going to go 14-2 and waltz through the playoffs en route to SB win #4 for the franchise. But I will say this: even without any headline grabbing FA acquisitions this team seems to be in good shape with a coaching staff that seems more able and willing to scheme to the strength of the players. This gives me a lot of hope that overall the team will be okay this year. My early take on the season was 10-6, and in the weeks following the draft I'll have an actual game by game prediction for them.

 

[cdumler7]

This post is pure gold. I'm not about to claim the Broncos are going to go 14-2 and waltz through the playoffs en route to SB win #4 for the franchise. But I will say this: even without any headline grabbing FA acquisitions this team seems to be in good shape with a coaching staff that seems more able and willing to scheme to the strength of the players. This gives me a lot of hope that overall the team will be okay this year. My early take on the season was 10-6, and in the weeks following the draft I'll have an actual game by game prediction for them.

To me there were 2 main issues this past season with the team. We couldn't run the ball and we could stop the run. Well helping in the run game we added a very nice OL coach. We added some huge beef up front in Watson and Leary. So those 3rd and 1 plays shouldn't be as big of a deal. And of course we have CJ Anderson returning from injury. Before he went down with injury we were an average to above average run offense. Unfortunately the players behind him lead to a big drop off in production. I don't think the OL all of a sudden got a lot worse but just the holes they opened up were not being taken advantage of. This is a big reason I say the OL wasn't as bad as some make it out to be last year. They were not great by any stretch of the imagination but they had plenty of moments.

And then of course run defense we added some nice beef to the front-7. Our guys were getting pushed back 3-4 yards on that DL so I'm hoping that this new added beef will make a big difference.

And finally the x-factor for this team is the growth of both QB's. What do they look like? Are they bottom-10 QB's like last year or do we see at least top half of the league production from Lynch and/or Siemian? To me if they are just above average this team with this defense has a chance to be special.

 

[iknowftbll]

To me there were 2 main issues this past season with the team. We couldn't run the ball and we could stop the run. Well helping in the run game we added a very nice OL coach. We added some huge beef up front in Watson and Leary. So those 3rd and 1 plays shouldn't be as big of a deal. And of course we have CJ Anderson returning from injury. Before he went down with injury we were an average to above average run offense. Unfortunately the players behind him lead to a big drop off in production. I don't think the OL all of a sudden got a lot worse but just the holes they opened up were not being taken advantage of. This is a big reason I say the OL wasn't as bad as some make it out to be last year. They were not great by any stretch of the imagination but they had plenty of moments.

And then of course run defense we added some nice beef to the front-7. Our guys were getting pushed back 3-4 yards on that DL so I'm hoping that this new added beef will make a big difference.

And finally the x-factor for this team is the growth of both QB's. What do they look like? Are they bottom-10 QB's like last year or do we see at least top half of the league production from Lynch and/or Siemian? To me if they are just above average this team with this defense has a chance to be special.

Right on all counts. I also feel not enough attention is being given to the Broncos inability to run the ball and as a result being unable to keep the offense on the field and the effects in turn that had on the run defense last year. The Broncos were 28th against the run overall but 18th in yards per rushing attempt. They had the 3rd highest number of attempts against them on the ground last year, too. This is all related: the opponents were able to run the ball because our offense never put any pressure on them. I'm not convinced the run defense was ever as broken as has been made out. A little beef up front and an offense that can show even marginal improvement and you are absolutely right: this team can be special.

 

[cdumler7]

Right on all counts. I also feel not enough attention is being given to the Broncos inability to run the ball and as a result being unable to keep the offense on the field and the effects in turn that had on the run defense last year. The Broncos were 28th against the run overall but 18th in yards per rushing attempt. They had the 3rd highest number of attempts against them on the ground last year, too. This is all related: the opponents were able to run the ball because our offense never put any pressure on them. I'm not convinced the run defense was ever as broken as has been made out. A little beef up front and an offense that can show even marginal improvement and you are absolutely right: this team can be special.

For me the one thing I am still waiting to see what happens is what we do at the LT spot. Do we add somebody in the draft? Do we trade for somebody? Hearing there is a small chance the Eagles cut Peters so could we end up with him? If I feel comfortable about our LT situation to me that is about a 2 game swing when I do my yearly break down.

 

[randymon]

I will have to beg to differ on the O line and run game being avg or above avg before CJ got hurt. In the first 6 games, Denver had one 75 yd rushing total and one 100+ game which happened to be game CJ got injured. The other games they barely avg 50 yrds a game. 2016 O line was THE main reason the offense struggled all year.

 

[cdumler7]

I will have to beg to differ on the O line and run game being avg or above avg before CJ got hurt. In the first 6 games, Denver had one 75 yd rushing total and one 100+ game which happened to be game CJ got injured. The other games they barely avg 50 yrds a game. 2016 O line was THE main reason the offense struggled all year.

Game 1 against the Panthers--157 yards
Game 2 against the Colts--134 yards
Game 3 against the Bengals--52 yards--this game they loaded the box to stop the run and dared the Broncos to beat them through the air. Played straight man coverage on the inside with bringing a safety up into the box to help in the run game.
Game 4 against the Bucs--89 yards
Game 5 against the Falcons--84 yards
Game 6 against the Chargers--84 yards
Game 7 against the Texans--190 yards rushing

So more than 1 game in the first 7 of going over 100. They averaged 4.1 yards per carry during this stretch. Not great but right at average for the league. So they were an average rushing team before Anderson went down with injury. Yet by the end of the season they finished 27th in yards and 28 in yards per carry with it over the entire season dropping to 3.6. Over the final 9 games of the season we were a bottom-2 team in yards per carry.

Again did the OL all of a sudden forget how to run block or was there that much of a drop off from Anderson to the other RB's? I would highly recommend going back and watching the final 9 games of the season. There were holes that were open that the RB's missed that in my opinion Anderson would have hit and picked up good yardage. Our rushing offense being terrible cannot and should not be all pinned on the OL. Doesn't mean they don't get some of the blame as again they were not perfect but they were not a bottom-5 rush blocking unit like the end of the season stats show.

 

[CEH]

I will have to beg to differ on the O line and run game being avg or above avg before CJ got hurt. In the first 6 games, Denver had one 75 yd rushing total and one 100+ game which happened to be game CJ got injured. The other games they barely avg 50 yrds a game. 2016 O line was THE main reason the offense struggled all year.

Let me help you out with stats gathering

LMGTFY

 

[Mingo]

The run game worked better when the Broncos were winning - and not so good when they were losing (season's end). The lack of run game - then hurt the pass protection - because the passing downs were obvious.

Nice discussion in this thread.