Game Thread: Round 1 Playoffs! Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

[cdumler7]

Exactly. They do a really good job spreading the ball around and going with the hot hand. This is where stats can be so deceptive. You can look at their production in receiving yards and write them off very quickly until you step back and realize the offense as a whole is the total package. And the results are there: #2 scoring unit in the league this year.

Where I am most encouraged is our offense actually matches up decently against their defense. They are ranked at the very top of the bottom-third in pass defense. Nix and our air attack is firing on all cylinders right now and I think there's some real opportunity to exploit that unit. They better against the run, but the run has been less a part of our arsenal on offense anyway. It's a big ask for a rookie to go into a 13-win Super Bowl contender's house and hang with them, but I have seen enough out of Nix to believe we actually have a chance in this game.

Oh, and while much has been made of Allen's ability to scramble and make plays with his legs, we've seen Nix do the same thing to a significant extent. Allen's 12 rushing TDs is a mind-blowing number. But we've seen a similar ability from Nix and I suspect it has been kept largely in the garage for his own safety. But this is the playoffs and I won't be surprised to see Nix steal the show with his scrambling ability either.

Sorry, you asked about Surtain and I took it in an entirely different direction...

Haha well I love the direction this is going though. And I would agree if I were Payton I would have maybe 4-5 built in carries for Nix in this one on some option plays to really get the defense thinking and then tell Nix if the first couple of reads are not there do not be afraid to take off running and use your legs to win this game. We do not need him throwing for 300 yards to win this one.

 

[iknowftbll]

Haha well I love the direction this is going though. And I would agree if I were Payton I would have maybe 4-5 built in carries for Nix in this one on some option plays to really get the defense thinking and then tell Nix if the first couple of reads are not there do not be afraid to take off running and use your legs to win this game. We do not need him throwing for 300 yards to win this one.

No, we really don't. I've seen more than a couple people say we can outscore them in a shootout and I disagree. I'd love to see the Broncos score fast and early, to send a message that they are not going to comply with protocol (that being a rookie-led team is supposed to lose in the playoffs) and then transition into a ball-control game that limits the Bills opportunities.

I can see the Broncos winning a 31-23 type game.

I can see the Broncos losing a 31-23 type game.

And I can see the Bills winning a 41-14 type game.

Regardless of the outcome, I am thrilled with the direction of the team. Namely I am thrilled the team finally has direction. I picked a 10-7 finish for this team, albeit a very different looking one from the one we got. So I already believed this team was capable of reaching the playoffs and they did. And because I believe we have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Bills, I will absolutely be disappointed if we lose. But I'll get over it too, because this team has accomplished a lot in what is essentially the first year of a rebuild and with record high dead money on the cap.

We've got the start of something special here.

 

[cdumler7]

No, we really don't. I've seen more than a couple people say we can outscore them in a shootout and I disagree. I'd love to see the Broncos score fast and early, to send a message that they are not going to comply with protocol (that being a rookie-led team is supposed to lose in the playoffs) and then transition into a ball-control game that limits the Bills opportunities.

I can see the Broncos winning a 31-23 type game.

I can see the Broncos losing a 31-23 type game.

And I can see the Bills winning a 41-14 type game.

Regardless of the outcome, I am thrilled with the direction of the team. Namely I am thrilled the team finally has direction. I picked a 10-7 finish for this team, albeit a very different looking one from the one we got. So I already believed this team was capable of reaching the playoffs and they did. And because I believe we have a legitimate shot at upsetting the Bills, I will absolutely be disappointed if we lose. But I'll get over it too, because this team has accomplished a lot in what is essentially the first year of a rebuild and with record high dead money on the cap.

We've got the start of something special here.

My dream scenario is a long consistent drive to start the game kind of like we did against the Chiefs this past week. I get these won't be backups we are playing against but get ourselves into those 3rd and short situations and convert on them really taking some of the life out of the crowd and the defensive players. And like you said then that limits the opportunities the Bills have to be on the field.

The Broncos obviously have a chance to win this one. Going to be fun no matter what just to enjoy seeing the team in a game like this. I had them as an 8-9 win type team so they have slightly exceeded my expectations, but the one who has gone beyond my expectations the most this year is Nix. The fact he could show this much with little help in the run game and probably his weakest group of weapons he will have for a while just shows the sky is the limit for this offense moving forward. I would use my FA money to keep adding to this defense and keep it strong this offseason. Add a guy like Zach Baun to the LB core and watch how much that changes this defense.

 

[iknowftbll]

My dream scenario is a long consistent drive to start the game kind of like we did against the Chiefs this past week. I get these won't be backups we are playing against but get ourselves into those 3rd and short situations and convert on them really taking some of the life out of the crowd and the defensive players. And like you said then that limits the opportunities the Bills have to be on the field.

The Broncos obviously have a chance to win this one. Going to be fun no matter what just to enjoy seeing the team in a game like this. I had them as an 8-9 win type team so they have slightly exceeded my expectations, but the one who has gone beyond my expectations the most this year is Nix. The fact he could show this much with little help in the run game and probably his weakest group of weapons he will have for a while just shows the sky is the limit for this offense moving forward. I would use my FA money to keep adding to this defense and keep it strong this offseason. Add a guy like Zach Baun to the LB core and watch how much that changes this defense.

A good defense and run game is a rookie's best friend. The Broncos definitely have a good defense, but the run game is at best "functional." There's nothing special about it, though it isn't totally dismal either. The reality is our defense matches up well with the Bills, and even our ground game, while not necessarily being a "key to the game" can also make an impact here. But ultimately I really believe this team wins or loses on our rookie QB.

That is so discouraging because I just see all these reports about how the Broncos reached for him, he's the worst 1st round QB pick in the draft, worst roster in the league, etc...

Really. We've got a shot here.

 

[cdumler7]

A good defense and run game is a rookie's best friend. The Broncos definitely have a good defense, but the run game is at best "functional." There's nothing special about it, though it isn't totally dismal either. The reality is our defense matches up well with the Bills, and even our ground game, while not necessarily being a "key to the game" can also make an impact here. But ultimately I really believe this team wins or loses on our rookie QB.

That is so discouraging because I just see all these reports about how the Broncos reached for him, he's the worst 1st round QB pick in the draft, worst roster in the league, etc...

Really. We've got a shot here.

I thought Nix was a good pick. Of all the QB's in this draft it was easy to see how he fit into this Payton system and could run it how Payton wants to play offense. We've seen in the past what happens when you pair a young QB with a coach that has a certain system that they have never ran before and it blow up big time. Thankfully Payton has also adjusted and put in some of the things that Nix is more comfortable running for his rookie season so honestly I think this is the floor for the most part of what we can expect from Nix moving forward. I would hope with the addition of a running back that can consistently hit the right hole and maybe a TE that can attack the middle of the field and maybe one more receiver this offense can really take off and compete as a top-5 unit even next season.

 

[iknowftbll]

I thought Nix was a good pick. Of all the QB's in this draft it was easy to see how he fit into this Payton system and could run it how Payton wants to play offense. We've seen in the past what happens when you pair a young QB with a coach that has a certain system that they have never ran before and it blow up big time. Thankfully Payton has also adjusted and put in some of the things that Nix is more comfortable running for his rookie season so honestly I think this is the floor for the most part of what we can expect from Nix moving forward. I would hope with the addition of a running back that can consistently hit the right hole and maybe a TE that can attack the middle of the field and maybe one more receiver this offense can really take off and compete as a top-5 unit even next season.

I agree. I don't get into the draft the way a lot of the regulars around here do. This year I really did, really hoping the Broncos would go with Nix. I am still baffled at how the analysts excoriated the Broncos for this pick. I was baffled before Nix proved them all clueless idiots.

 

[cdumler7]

I agree. I don't get into the draft the way a lot of the regulars around here do. This year I really did, really hoping the Broncos would go with Nix. I am still baffled at how the analysts excoriated the Broncos for this pick. I was baffled before Nix proved them all clueless idiots.

It is why even still to this day in the NFL they are trying to find any stat that helps prove he is not a good QB. They look at his ADot number for example ignoring that some of the names around him are guys like Patrick Mahomes. Teams are trying to take away the deep ball and make teams have to march 10 plays down the field. Yes there are a lot of screen passes built into this offense giving him some inflated accuracy numbers but we have also seen him fit some throws into very tight windows down the field.

I would say most of those still fighting against Nix at this point are only doing so because their ego cannot handle how much they laughed at the pick back in April as admitting they were wrong would be a huge blow.

We are seeing more and more that talent matters only a little more than fit within the place they are going. Mahomes for example I think would be a good QB wherever he went, but the legendary status he has right now is in big part because he walked into the perfect situation. Great OL, HOF level weapons, and HOF coach to make life a lot easier for him. Brady when he started with the Patriots wasn't what I would consider a HOF level QB, but he had top-10 OL/rushing attack on offense and a top-10 defense to make it where he only had to make a few big plays throughout the game to keep a team honest for them to win games. Helps also having a top-5 coach all time too.

 

[iknowftbll]

It is why even still to this day in the NFL they are trying to find any stat that helps prove he is not a good QB. They look at his ADot number for example ignoring that some of the names around him are guys like Patrick Mahomes. Teams are trying to take away the deep ball and make teams have to march 10 plays down the field. Yes there are a lot of screen passes built into this offense giving him some inflated accuracy numbers but we have also seen him fit some throws into very tight windows down the field.

I would say most of those still fighting against Nix at this point are only doing so because their ego cannot handle how much they laughed at the pick back in April as admitting they were wrong would be a huge blow.

We are seeing more and more that talent matters only a little more than fit within the place they are going. Mahomes for example I think would be a good QB wherever he went, but the legendary status he has right now is in big part because he walked into the perfect situation. Great OL, HOF level weapons, and HOF coach to make life a lot easier for him. Brady when he started with the Patriots wasn't what I would consider a HOF level QB, but he had top-10 OL/rushing attack on offense and a top-10 defense to make it where he only had to make a few big plays throughout the game to keep a team honest for them to win games. Helps also having a top-5 coach all time too.

Yeah, Brady-Manning were to our generation what Elway-Montana-Marino-Kelly were to our parents. (Well, maybe your parents. Mine weren't sports fans.) And now we're seeing that in Mahommes-Allen-Burrow and others.

I also agree with you about the reluctance to give Nix any credit. Nobody throws good money after bad like the media. From elections to sports nobody doubles down on their own stupidity like media pundits. Nix has the ability to not only prove everyone wrong but to become a league darling. As cynical as this is going to sound, I'm going to say it. The NFL has its favorites. It is good for business for the league for certain star players to have continued success. We are definitely seeing that in Mahommes right now. I do not believe the league is scripted like some do, though I believe the league provides a lot of ammunition to that narrative. Just look at the way they called the Broncos games against the Chargers and Bengals: it's bad for business if all the playoff seeds are locked up before week 18.

Anyway back on point. Nix has the potential to become one of those "face of the league" type QBs and that combined with the wealth of this ownership group makes for a promising combination.

 

[cdumler7]

Yeah, Brady-Manning were to our generation what Elway-Montana-Marino-Kelly were to our parents. (Well, maybe your parents. Mine weren't sports fans.) And now we're seeing that in Mahommes-Allen-Burrow and others.

I also agree with you about the reluctance to give Nix any credit. Nobody throws good money after bad like the media. From elections to sports nobody doubles down on their own stupidity like media pundits. Nix has the ability to not only prove everyone wrong but to become a league darling. As cynical as this is going to sound, I'm going to say it. The NFL has its favorites. It is good for business for the league for certain star players to have continued success. We are definitely seeing that in Mahommes right now. I do not believe the league is scripted like some do, though I believe the league provides a lot of ammunition to that narrative. Just look at the way they called the Broncos games against the Chargers and Bengals: it's bad for business if all the playoff seeds are locked up before week 18.

Anyway back on point. Nix has the potential to become one of those "face of the league" type QBs and that combined with the wealth of this ownership group makes for a promising combination.

I would agree that I don't think the league is scripted in the sense that they tell the players how the game is going to play out before the season begins or even before games. I do think they have some influence over the officials though in telling them to maybe make a call or two that go in the favor of their media darlings that get them the ratings.

Nix for sure has that chance as he has the right personality and obviously can play football to become someone the league is drawn towards. If he goes on a playoff run now I don't think even the biggest detractors of his can argue anymore about his place within the NFL. Burrow kind of had to do that as many were not high on him in the draft and it wasn't until he knocked out the Bills and the Chiefs in the playoffs that the league really took notice.

 

[SpringStein]

Always one of my favorites from Charles McDonald on Yahoo Sports:
12: Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Quarterback thirst has officially gone too far. There’s simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. Nix does not have the profile of the QB who is going to save Denver. Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham will battle it out this summer for the right to be the starter, but Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter. Grade: F

 

[iknowftbll]

Always one of my favorites from Charles McDonald on Yahoo Sports:
12: Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Quarterback thirst has officially gone too far. There’s simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. Nix does not have the profile of the QB who is going to save Denver. Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham will battle it out this summer for the right to be the starter, but Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter. Grade: F

That is pure gold. I'm not on social media aside from LinkedIn (and I'm only on that one because of work) but this is the kind of thing I'd make sure I shared if I was more prolific.

 

[cdumler7]

Always one of my favorites from Charles McDonald on Yahoo Sports:
12: Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Quarterback thirst has officially gone too far. There’s simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. Nix does not have the profile of the QB who is going to save Denver. Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham will battle it out this summer for the right to be the starter, but Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter. Grade: F

There are a lot of "analyst" out there that have been silent since about the middle of October when it comes to Nix. There was one dunking on the first 4 games of the season saying the Broncos were a laughing stock now for reaching so bad. He hasn't said a single thing about Nix since. People have even gone on his show and asked about Nix and he refuses to engage. I usually like his show but leading up to the draft his hatred for Nix made me never want to listen again. It wasn't just a "hey I don't think this guy will be good." He went after him personally and attacked even the character of Nix. That is the kind of stuff I just can't stand.

 

[cdumler7]

Cool stat for Nix since we are talking about him. He is only the 3rd QB in NFL history to have 2 games in a season where he threw for 300 yards or more 4 TD's or more and have an 80% completion or higher. No other rookie has ever had a game like that and he did it twice. The other veteran QB's to have done it...Drew Brees (of course he would be on this list) and Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers won the MVP the year he did it and Brees placed 2nd in the MVP voting and many thought he should have won it that year throwing for almost 5500 yards and 46 TD's.

 

[iknowftbll]

There are a lot of "analyst" out there that have been silent since about the middle of October when it comes to Nix. There was one dunking on the first 4 games of the season saying the Broncos were a laughing stock now for reaching so bad. He hasn't said a single thing about Nix since. People have even gone on his show and asked about Nix and he refuses to engage. I usually like his show but leading up to the draft his hatred for Nix made me never want to listen again. It wasn't just a "hey I don't think this guy will be good." He went after him personally and attacked even the character of Nix. That is the kind of stuff I just can't stand.

I don’t pay attention as closely as I used to, but definitely noticed the overwhelming narrative was against the Broncos for selecting Nix. And it seemed like an almost personal grudge when they carried that forward and rated this the worst roster in the league.

That all just makes it more satisfying when the team goes 10-7 and makes the playoffs. That they aren’t willing to acknowledge they missed on their predictions will just keep getting better and better if the Broncos win a game or two in the playoffs.

 

[cdumler7]

I don’t pay attention as closely as I used to, but definitely noticed the overwhelming narrative was against the Broncos for selecting Nix. And it seemed like an almost personal grudge when they carried that forward and rated this the worst roster in the league.

That all just makes it more satisfying when the team goes 10-7 and makes the playoffs. That they aren’t willing to acknowledge they missed on their predictions will just keep getting better and better if the Broncos win a game or two in the playoffs.

Let’s go 2 wins since that means we take out the Chiefs.

 

[iknowftbll]

Let’s go 2 wins since that means we take out the Chiefs.

I actually like our chances against them better than the Bills.

 

[iknowftbll]

I actually like our chances against them better than the Bills.

I'll add I think one of the most frustrating things about the 2003 and 2004 Broncos was knowing if they could just get past the Colts in the playoffs they'd likely be able to upset the Patriots on the road, but never being able to upset the Colts first. Who, in turn, couldn't upset the Patriots.

All of that to say, I like this year's Broncos chances to upset the Chiefs if they can just get past the Bills!

 

[CEH]

Always one of my favorites from Charles McDonald on Yahoo Sports:
12: Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Quarterback thirst has officially gone too far. There’s simply no need for the Broncos to force this pick here. Nix does not have the profile of the QB who is going to save Denver. Bo Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham will battle it out this summer for the right to be the starter, but Nix is closer to being a backup in the NFL than a franchise starter. Grade: F

No one can consistently evaluate QBs except maybe Green Bay. Mike was pretty good. Sean looks like he's pretty good at it.