Rob Neyer's Column

[tzill]

Can someone with ESPN insider please C&P the Neyer article "5 keys to this weekend?"

 

[Kendal]

Took me a minute to find it. Its actually by Matt Meyers.

San Francisco Giants have big edge
Five keys to MLB's final weekend By Matt Meyers
ESPN The Magazine
Archive


AP Photo/Gregory Smith
Three day's rest? No problem for Tim Hudson. Recovery? That's the problem.


About 10 days ago, this weekend looked like it was going to be one of the most exciting final regular season weekends in recent memory, with potentially four National League teams fighting for two spots. The recent swoons by the Rockies and Padres have put a damper on that idea, but we still have three NL teams alive for those spots, with three games to play. No matter who you root for, that's exciting.

But before settling in for a potentially crazy weekend of playoff action, here are five things you need to look out for, including a reason to be concerned about Tim Hudson and why the Padres' lineup might be even more punchless than usual.


1. Tim Hudson has got a recovery problem
It's well-documented that Hudson pitched on three-days rest on Tuesday to have full rest on the last day of the season against the Phillies. Prior to his last start, Hudson had a 2.61 ERA in three previous outings on short rest, and he proved again that he's fine with just three days of rest, as he allowed one run over six innings in a 3-2 Braves win. Hudson passed the three-days-rest test and should be fine for Sunday, right? Wrong. In his previous two starts on short rest (both in 2006), he got shelled the following outing, combining for 10 runs allowed on 15 hits and and nine walks in 11 innings of work. In other words, it's not the short rest that bothered him, but recovering from the short rest for his next start. Keep that in mind if Hudson toes the rubber on Sunday in a must-win game, because history has not been kind to him when he has tried to bounce back from a start on short rest.


2. Will Venable should probably be benched
The Padres' offense is, to put it mildly, underwhelming. It has been particularly putrid in September, averaging just 3.0 runs per game, which is worst in the NL. Other than Adrian Gonzalez doing the things that Gonzalez usually does (.867 OPS this month), Venable is the only other Padres' hitter pulling his weight. The center fielder is hitting .366/.392/.521 (BA/OBP/SLG) this month, and his emergence is the main reason San Diego is still in this thing. The problem is Venable, a left-handed hitter, can't hit southpaws. He has a .551 OPS against lefties this year and .593 for his career. And wouldn't you know it, the Giants are starting left-handersBarry Zito tonight and Jonathan Sanchez on Sunday. Sanchez dominates lefties like few others (.176 BA against this year), and Venable probably shouldn't be in the lineup against him. Considering manager Bud Black had Venable hitting leadoff yesterday against lefty Tom Gorzelanny, I'm going to assume he doesn't see Venable's Mario Mendoza-esque performance against left-handers as a problem, even though he should. (For the record, Venable was 0-for-3 with two K's against Gorzelanny.)


3. The Padres shouldn't test Buster Posey
When a team is struggling on offense, it's common to see it try and "force the issue" with small-ball tactics. Considering the Padres are second in the NL with 123 stolen bases, it won't be surprising if Black decides to give more green lights on the basepaths (assuming anyone gets on base). The problem is Giants catcher Posey is a human stop sign. For all the talk about how raw he is behind the plate, he sure doesn't have any trouble gunning down runners. He's nailed 30.9 percent of attempted base-stealers this year, which is fifth among NL backstops with at least 70 games played. As mentioned above, the Giants will have two lefties on the bump this weekend, which is another deterrent for the Padres running game. If San Diego tries swipe bases, consider it the act of some desperate men.


4. Craig Kimbrel is making history
Anyone else see this little tidbit on Twitter from former Baseball Prospectus author Rany Jazayerli? Braves rookie Kimbrel has 38 strikeouts and nine hits allowed. No one in MLB history has thrown more than 10 innings with a K/H ratio of 4-to-1.

After a couple of cups of coffee earlier this season, Kimbrel was recalled in September and has been absolutely dominant. In 10 1/3 innings this month, the 5-foot-10 righthander with a 95 mph fastball and filthy slider has not allowed a run, while making 21 batters whiff and walking three. With him and Billy Wagner at the end of games, the Braves' bullpen is finally a strength.


5. And if all else fails, the Giants still have Tim Lincecum
Rumors of Lincecum's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even in a "down year," the two-time defending Cy Young winner leads the NL with 9.8 K's per nine and has a 3.43 ERA in 212 1/3 innings. (As Rumor Central specialist Chris Sprow likes to say, "Superstars are like pizza. Even when they're bad, they're still pretty good.")

The Giants are in the driver's seat. They head into the weekend with a three-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. On top of that, if they spit the bit and are forced into a one-game playoff on Monday, they have Lincecum ready to go on regular rest.



Matt Meyers is an associate editor with ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. You can find his complete ESPN archives here.

 

[filosofy29]

Took me a minute to find it. Its actually by Matt Meyers.

San Francisco Giants have big edge
Five keys to MLB's final weekend By Matt Meyers
ESPN The Magazine
Archive


AP Photo/Gregory Smith
Three day's rest? No problem for Tim Hudson. Recovery? That's the problem.


About 10 days ago, this weekend looked like it was going to be one of the most exciting final regular season weekends in recent memory, with potentially four National League teams fighting for two spots. The recent swoons by the Rockies and Padres have put a damper on that idea, but we still have three NL teams alive for those spots, with three games to play. No matter who you root for, that's exciting.

But before settling in for a potentially crazy weekend of playoff action, here are five things you need to look out for, including a reason to be concerned about Tim Hudson and why the Padres' lineup might be even more punchless than usual.


1. Tim Hudson has got a recovery problem
It's well-documented that Hudson pitched on three-days rest on Tuesday to have full rest on the last day of the season against the Phillies. Prior to his last start, Hudson had a 2.61 ERA in three previous outings on short rest, and he proved again that he's fine with just three days of rest, as he allowed one run over six innings in a 3-2 Braves win. Hudson passed the three-days-rest test and should be fine for Sunday, right? Wrong. In his previous two starts on short rest (both in 2006), he got shelled the following outing, combining for 10 runs allowed on 15 hits and and nine walks in 11 innings of work. In other words, it's not the short rest that bothered him, but recovering from the short rest for his next start. Keep that in mind if Hudson toes the rubber on Sunday in a must-win game, because history has not been kind to him when he has tried to bounce back from a start on short rest.


2. Will Venable should probably be benched
The Padres' offense is, to put it mildly, underwhelming. It has been particularly putrid in September, averaging just 3.0 runs per game, which is worst in the NL. Other than Adrian Gonzalez doing the things that Gonzalez usually does (.867 OPS this month), Venable is the only other Padres' hitter pulling his weight. The center fielder is hitting .366/.392/.521 (BA/OBP/SLG) this month, and his emergence is the main reason San Diego is still in this thing. The problem is Venable, a left-handed hitter, can't hit southpaws. He has a .551 OPS against lefties this year and .593 for his career. And wouldn't you know it, the Giants are starting left-handersBarry Zito tonight and Jonathan Sanchez on Sunday. Sanchez dominates lefties like few others (.176 BA against this year), and Venable probably shouldn't be in the lineup against him. Considering manager Bud Black had Venable hitting leadoff yesterday against lefty Tom Gorzelanny, I'm going to assume he doesn't see Venable's Mario Mendoza-esque performance against left-handers as a problem, even though he should. (For the record, Venable was 0-for-3 with two K's against Gorzelanny.)


3. The Padres shouldn't test Buster Posey
When a team is struggling on offense, it's common to see it try and "force the issue" with small-ball tactics. Considering the Padres are second in the NL with 123 stolen bases, it won't be surprising if Black decides to give more green lights on the basepaths (assuming anyone gets on base). The problem is Giants catcher Posey is a human stop sign. For all the talk about how raw he is behind the plate, he sure doesn't have any trouble gunning down runners. He's nailed 30.9 percent of attempted base-stealers this year, which is fifth among NL backstops with at least 70 games played. As mentioned above, the Giants will have two lefties on the bump this weekend, which is another deterrent for the Padres running game. If San Diego tries swipe bases, consider it the act of some desperate men.


4. Craig Kimbrel is making history
Anyone else see this little tidbit on Twitter from former Baseball Prospectus author Rany Jazayerli? Braves rookie Kimbrel has 38 strikeouts and nine hits allowed. No one in MLB history has thrown more than 10 innings with a K/H ratio of 4-to-1.

After a couple of cups of coffee earlier this season, Kimbrel was recalled in September and has been absolutely dominant. In 10 1/3 innings this month, the 5-foot-10 righthander with a 95 mph fastball and filthy slider has not allowed a run, while making 21 batters whiff and walking three. With him and Billy Wagner at the end of games, the Braves' bullpen is finally a strength.


5. And if all else fails, the Giants still have Tim Lincecum
Rumors of Lincecum's demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even in a "down year," the two-time defending Cy Young winner leads the NL with 9.8 K's per nine and has a 3.43 ERA in 212 1/3 innings. (As Rumor Central specialist Chris Sprow likes to say, "Superstars are like pizza. Even when they're bad, they're still pretty good.")

The Giants are in the driver's seat. They head into the weekend with a three-game lead over the Padres in the NL West. On top of that, if they spit the bit and are forced into a one-game playoff on Monday, they have Lincecum ready to go on regular rest.



Matt Meyers is an associate editor with ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider. You can find his complete ESPN archives here.

Thanks Kendal. Excellent first post!

 

[Kendal]

No problem.

 

[msgkings322]

Well, we're almost done spitting the bit. Let's hope Sanchez comes through, makes up for the 'guarantee' start.

 

[msgkings322]

No problem.

Love the avatar too, Monarch.

 

[Kendal]

Love the avatar too, Monarch.

lol. Love that show.