Rhis is interesting

[rmilia1]

I went back and looked at the last 10 season in CFB. I too a look at all 1 loss OR 2 loss top 4 teams and cross referenced their SOS for that season vs teams ranked 5th or lower that had 1 loss or were unbeaten. These are the years and the teams that had a record as good OR better and an SOS higher than teams ranked in front of them

2013 Stanfrod - Had an SOS of 1, ahead of Auburn (13), Bama (39) and MSU (51)
2012- Kansas State- Had an SOS of 8, ahead of Oregon (16)
2011- None
2010- None
2009- None
2008- Texas Tech and Penn State- With SOS of 4 and 5 respectively had an SOS better than Texas (8)
2007- Kansas- Had an SOS of 7, better than Ohio State (9) AND had a better SOS and record than LSU (20) and VT (12)
2006- None
2005- Oregon had an SOS of 13, ahead of Penn State (23)
2004- Boise State had an SOS of 12, ahead of Texas (21)

So it looks like most years the playoff would have been relatively easy to figure and in only a few years did multiple teams end up ranked ahead of someone with a better SOS ( 07, 08 and 13 )

 

[Red_Alert]

"That's too much information. What are you trying to say?" - HuskerOC

 

[rmilia1]

"That's too much information. What are you trying to say?" - HuskerOC

Well ( HuskerOC)... Im saying that it looks as though most years the top 4 teams in the polls would have actually been the best 4 teams to take in the playoff although there are certainly a few exceptions but not as many as I would have thought. What will be interesting is when we get a year ( like 07 ) when a team goes 11-1 and does not win their league and multiple teams go 11-2 and do win their leagues. Especially when the 1 loss team has a better SOS. Then we will see how valuable winning your conference really is.

 

[olympicoscar]

If a train leaves Denver at 8:06AM and travels at 67 miles per hour, and another train leaves San Francisco at 9:12AM going 59 miles per hour and the distance between them is 865 miles, at what time will they meet?

I hope that clears it up?

 

[rmilia1]

If a train leaves Denver at 8:06AM and travels at 67 miles per hour, and another train leaves San Francisco at 9:12AM going 59 miles per hour and the distance between them is 865 miles, at what time will they meet?

I hope that clears it up?

Id have to know what route they are traveling in order to determine time zone status BUT 2:59 PM MST is the most likely answer LOL

 

[963BUSC]

I went back and looked at the last 10 season in CFB. I too a look at all 1 loss OR 2 loss top 4 teams and cross referenced their SOS for that season vs teams ranked 5th or lower that had 1 loss or were unbeaten. These are the years and the teams that had a record as good OR better and an SOS higher than teams ranked in front of them

2013 Stanfrod - Had an SOS of 1, ahead of Auburn (13), Bama (39) and MSU (51)
2012- Kansas State- Had an SOS of 8, ahead of Oregon (16)
2011- None
2010- None
2009- None
2008- Texas Tech and Penn State- With SOS of 4 and 5 respectively had an SOS better than Texas (8)
2007- Kansas- Had an SOS of 7, better than Ohio State (9) AND had a better SOS and record than LSU (20) and VT (12)
2006- None
2005- Oregon had an SOS of 13, ahead of Penn State (23)
2004- Boise State had an SOS of 12, ahead of Texas (21)

So it looks like most years the playoff would have been relatively easy to figure and in only a few years did multiple teams end up ranked ahead of someone with a better SOS ( 07, 08 and 13 )

That's actually pretty interesting. Are they end of the year rankings or pre-bowl? Just curious if the bowl's could have done much to clear the picture? For instance, 2006 heading into the bowls Michigan was ranked #3 with one loss to Ohio State, had the playoffs happened that year Michigan would most likely have been in, but was their SOS higher than also 1 loss Wisconsin?

 

[rmilia1]

That's actually pretty interesting. Are they end of the year rankings or pre-bowl? Just curious if the bowl's could have done much to clear the picture? For instance, 2006 heading into the bowls Michigan was ranked #3 with one loss to Ohio State, had the playoffs happened that year Michigan would most likely have been in, but was their SOS higher than also 1 loss Wisconsin?

Pre bowl ( post conference title games ). That was really the only way to get legit numbers. The SOS numbers are slightly off because they are end of the year numbers ( after bowls ) as that was all I had access to. But it looks like the polls did a pretty solid job with a few exceptions. Last year would have been the PERFECT case study as you have 3/4/5 in the polls with 3 being a media darling/traditional power but no conference title, 4 being a solid program with a league title and 5 being a relatively new to the scene type team without a league title but the best SOS in the country. How the hell do you figure that out??

 

[WhiteMamba]

Well, considering in that 2012 season that Duck team beat Kansas State by 17 I guess it isn't the best way to determine a better team eh?

There are other factors that go into determining a team than SOS alone.

 

[rmilia1]

Well, considering in that 2012 season that Duck team beat Kansas State by 17 I guess it isn't the best way to determine a better team eh?

There are other factors that go into determining a team than SOS alone.

Well thats why I used the polls as well. The polls theoretically take all that eye test stuff into account. And certainly a one game snapshot isnt a better way to determine a teams worthiness of playing in the playoff than an entire seasons results is.

 

[963BUSC]

Pre bowl ( post conference title games ). That was really the only way to get legit numbers. The SOS numbers are slightly off because they are end of the year numbers ( after bowls ) as that was all I had access to. But it looks like the polls did a pretty solid job with a few exceptions. Last year would have been the PERFECT case study as you have 3/4/5 in the polls with 3 being a media darling/traditional power but no conference title, 4 being a solid program with a league title and 5 being a relatively new to the scene type team without a league title but the best SOS in the country. How the hell do you figure that out??

No idea, and I don't even know if it would be wrong to leave the tougher SOS out. How much do you punish a program for its opponents falling off? Personally I'd hope they take the teams with league titles first, then SOS. But taking the top 4 and arguing you #5 should have been in seems a lot better than taking the top 2 and arguing #3 should have been in.

 

[rmilia1]

Remember ( as I said in 2011 ) that there are different ways to rank teams. You can rank them based simply off of who you believe to be better or you can rank them based off of data/results and performance. Neither is wrong per se. Being a numbers guy I tend to gravitate towards the latter way as the "eye test" is 100% arbitrary and can be skewed to tell you whatever you want to hear. Doesnt mean its the ONLY way to do it though. Clearly at the end of the 2012 season Oregon had the better team as compared to K State. That doesnt mean one couldnt make a valid argument for KSU being the better choice for the playoff based on season performance.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Well thats why I used the polls as well. The polls theoretically take all that eye test stuff into account. And certainly a one game snapshot isnt a better way to determine a teams worthiness of playing in the playoff than an entire seasons results is.

In the end it doesn't matter. The committee holds the answers now.

When we see their first poll released a few weeks in, we will know what criteria they are actually using. Or for that matter not using.

 

[rmilia1]

In the end it doesn't matter. The committee holds the answers now.

When we see their first poll released a few weeks in, we will know what criteria they are actually using. Or for that matter not using.

Yeah its still too early for my liking but its better than before. It will be interesting how they weigh a teams season long results vs how they are currently playing though. Or " do you want the teams with the best seasons or the teams playing best now??". Often those arent the same. USC in 02,Auburn/Utah in 04, UGA in 07, Utah/Texas in 08, TCU in 2010, OK State in 2011, Oregon/A&M in 2012, Michigan State in 2013... all those teams can make legit claims to being better than 1 or BOTH of the teams that played in the BCS title games at years end yet none of them even got to play for a title.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Yeah its still too early for my liking but its better than before. It will be interesting how they weigh a teams season long results vs how they are currently playing though. Or " do you want the teams with the best seasons or the teams playing best now??". Often those arent the same. USC in 02,Auburn/Utah in 04, UGA in 07, Utah/Texas in 08, TCU in 2010, OK State in 2011, Oregon/A&M in 2012, Michigan State in 2013... all those teams can make legit claims to being better than 1 or BOTH of the teams that played in the BCS title games at years end yet none of them even got to play for a title.

Very true.