Ray Rice/Adrian Peterson

[Xponentialchaos]

I have a few decisions to make and I'd like some input from you fine folks. Rather than bore you with the specific details, let me just get to the heart of the question.

What's the probability of Ray Rice playing another down in the NFL?

What's the probability of Adrian Peterson playing another down in the NFL?

What's the probability of Chris Johnson once again resembling anything close to the fantasy stud we once knew?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I have a few decisions to make and I'd like some input from you fine folks. Rather than bore you with the specific details, let me just get to the heart of the question.

What's the probability of Ray Rice playing another down in the NFL?

What's the probability of Adrian Peterson playing another down in the NFL?

What's the probability of Chris Johnson once again resembling anything close to the fantasy stud we once knew?

Rice- 35% but 15% on ever being good again

Peterson- 60%

Johnson-80%, I would not quit on Johnson, the Jets are going to abandon the pass soon enough... and Johnson has not been terrible when he has gotten the touches... and he is still the big play guy for the Jets... The Jets just have to use him...

 

[TREFF]

Is say Rice is a lost cause. Even if he ever does get another chance, he's just going to be older and rustier.

AP, I like his chances of either being acquitted, or receiving a punishment that won't affect his status in 2015. Most likely will be with a new team, and, like Rice, will be older, but he was a lot better when he went out so a better shot at regaining some of that.

Johnson? Unlike Milk, I think he'd be better served if the Jets actually committed to a passing game, he'd be much better served on screens, swings, and check downs than he will be running the Jets style of a running game. If they abandon the pass in any way, Ivory becomes that much more valuable and Johnson spends must of the time watching. .

If the overall question is pick one of the three in a dynasty type of league, I'm rolling with Peterson

 

[wildturkey]

Rice and AD will play in the NFL again. Just not this year. CJ was washed up two years ago. He'll never be a stud again. At best he's a low end RB2 but mostly a flex.

 

[tlance]

Johnson is done. He just does not gave the right mentality to be a workhorse RB.

A year off could actually help Rice, but it is a long shot that he will play effectively again.

AP will eventually get a shot and he is the most likely of the 3 to be fantasy relevant again.

 

[SoShady]

Johnson is done. He just does not gave the right mentality to be a workhorse RB.

A year off could actually help Rice, but it is a long shot that he will play effectively again.

AP will eventually get a shot and he is the most likely of the 3 to be fantasy relevant again.

Agreed.. CJ0K is toast. Of the two I would take AP but both will be back. Rice was actually looking decent to me in the preseason before everything happened.

 

[Chef99]

Johnson is done. He just does not gave the right mentality to be a workhorse RB.

A year off could actually help Rice, but it is a long shot that he will play effectively again.

AP will eventually get a shot and he is the most likely of the 3 to be fantasy relevant again.

Yeah, I think you've pretty much covered it.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I would agree that Peterson is the only keeper, in any type of league.

But I really do think Johnson will be fine this season. Just not ready to give up on him. You say he is done, but he just doesn't get the touches. If he starts getting more touches he will be a fine flex option and maybe a low end rb2. I am shocked that he has gotten so little touches and i would be more shocked if it doesn't improve.

 

[wilwhite]

CJ1K will be startable but unspectacular if Ivory goes down (which is a decent bet).

Rice was bad last year, even before his injury, and that video will always be toxic. He'll be making his money in damages rather than by playing.

The exempt list actually will keep AP off the field for more time than if he'd been suspended now. He's not suspended. A verdict probably won't come until the season is almost over or completely over, and after that he'll probably then have to start a 6-game suspension (convicted or not; see Big Ben).

But he probably won't be back with Minnesota, and therefore not with the O-line he'd enjoyed, and on top of that his mental toughness will be tested (for the first time, really). Imagine a 30-year-old distracted AP playing 10 games for Jacksonville to get a sense of his value.

 

[Xponentialchaos]

Is say Rice is a lost cause. Even if he ever does get another chance, he's just going to be older and rustier.

AP, I like his chances of either being acquitted, or receiving a punishment that won't affect his status in 2015. Most likely will be with a new team, and, like Rice, will be older, but he was a lot better when he went out so a better shot at regaining some of that.

Johnson? Unlike Milk, I think he'd be better served if the Jets actually committed to a passing game, he'd be much better served on screens, swings, and check downs than he will be running the Jets style of a running game. If they abandon the pass in any way, Ivory becomes that much more valuable and Johnson spends must of the time watching. .

If the overall question is pick one of the three in a dynasty type of league, I'm rolling with Peterson

That's not the overall question. But thanks for the input.

 

[TREFF]

That's not the overall question. But thanks for the input.

Cool.. well than, to specifically answer the questions you asked:

What's the probability of Ray Rice playing another down in the NFL?
Another down, % 75.. The probability that those future downs are worth fantasy consideration. .% 15

What's the probability of Adrian Peterson playing another down in the NFL?

%100, and probably above average production

What's the probability of Chris Johnson once again resembling anything close to the fantasy stud we once knew?

%15- he's basically been "resembling something close to the fantasy stud he once was" for about the last four years. Going forward, it's just gonna get worse

 

[wilwhite]

Rice: 5% (if Goodell is forced out as commish, up it to 25%)
AP: 90%
CJ0K being CJ1K: 60%; CJ0K being CJ2K: 1%