Ranking all 124 teams

[Jack_John_Mark]

So I finished all of the coding for that ranking system I was telling you all about that I want to build, and I made my first test run just minutes ago to see what it would spit out.

Now, please understand that these rankings are going to look a little crazy right now beings that we just finished the OOC schedule and several teams did not see much for competition (ie: Texas Tech ).

Over the next couple of weeks, as teams enter conference play, these rankings should start to level out. What I tried to do is gather all of the stats that you folks told me to use along with some others and calculate Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams efficiency, and how each translates into points.

Each team then plays every other team through simulation to see how many teams they would beat if they were to play this current weekend. The number you see in parenthesis is the wins and losses that the program determines each team would have on this current week.

And here is the first JJM rankings:

1) Florida St (123-0)
2) Texas Tech (122-1)
3) Alabama (121-2)
4) LSU (120-3)
5) Arizona St (118-5)
6) Notre Dame (118-5)
7) Kansas St (118-5)
8) Connecticut (116-7)
9) Texas (115-8)
10) TCU (113-10)
11) BYU (112-11)
12) Cincinnati (110-13)
13) West Virginia (110-13)
14) Oklahoma St (109-14)
15) Oregon (108-15)
16) Oklahoma (108-15)
17) USC (107-16)
18) South Carolina (106-17)
19) Ohio St (105-18)
20) UCLA (104-19)
21) Mississippi St (104-19)
22) UCF (102-21)
23) Stanford (101-22)
24) Michigan St (99-24)
25) Iowa St (98-25)
26) Georgia (98-25)
27) Indiana (96-27)
28) North Carolina (96-27)
29) Nebraska (95-28)
30) Ohio (95-28)
31) Florida (94-29)
32) Louisville (94-29)
33) Missouri (93-30)
34) Purdue (92-31)
35) Fresno St (90-33)
36) Texas A&M (87-36)
37) Baylor (87-36)
38) UTSA (85-38)
39) Clemson (85-38)
40) Utah St (84-39)
41) Tennessee (83-40)
42) Boise St (79-44)
43) Oregon St (79-44)
44) San Jose St (79-44)
45) Minnesota (78-45)
46) Rutgers (77-46)
47) Arizona (77-46)
48) Utah (77-46)
49) Tulsa (75-48)
50) Mississippi (73-50)
51) West Kentucky (72-51)
52) South Florida (71-52)
53) Duke (71-52)
54) Georgia Tech (70-53)
55) Northern Illinois (70-53)
56) Texas St (68-55)
57) Louisiana Tech (68-55)
58) Virginia Tech (67-56)
59) Syracuse (64-59)
60) Nevada (64-59)
61) Northwestern (64-59)
62) LA Lafayette (63-60)
63) Iowa (62-61)
64) Maryland (61-62)
65) Air Force (61-62)
66) Illinois (59-64)
67) Wisconsin (57-66)
68) San Diego St (56-67)
69) Michigan (54-69)
70) Troy (53-70)
71) Vanderbilt (51-72)
72) Penn St (51-72)
73) Temple (50-73)
74) LA Monroe (50-73)
75) Kentucky (50-73)
76) Kansas (48-75)
77) NC State (46-77)
78) Ball St (46-77)
79) Washington (45-78)
80) Virginia (45-78)
81) California (44-79)
82) South Alabama (44-79)
83) W Michigan (42-81)
84) Miami FL (40-83)
85) Pittsburgh (39-84)
86) Arkansas (38-85)
87) Kent St (36-87)
88) Middle TennSt (35-88)
89) Toledo (35-88)
90) Marshall (33-90)
91) North Texas (32-91)
92) Florida Intl (32-91)
93) Colorado St (30-93)
94) UNLV (30-93)
95) Boston Coll (30-93)
96) New Mexico (28-95)
97) Cent Michigan (28-95)
98) Auburn (27-96)
99) Arkansas St (27-96)
100) Buffalo (23-100)
101) Bowling Green (23-100)
102) Rice (23-100)
103) Wake Forest (22-101)
104) Wyoming (21-102)
105) East Carolina (18-105)
106) New Mexico St (18-105)
107) Houston (18-105)
108) UAB (18-105)
109) Memphis (14-109)
110) Colorado (12-111)
111) Florida Atlantic (12-111)
112) East Michigan (11-112)
113) UTEP (11-112)
114) Akron (11-112)
115) Washington St (9-114)
116) SMU (9-114)
117) Idaho (8-115)
118) Army (7-116)
119) Hawaii (6-117)
120) Southern Miss (4-119)
121) Navy (3-120)
122) Miami OH (2-121)
123) Tulane (1-122)
124) Massachusetts (0-123)

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Oh, and I have no idea why UCONN is ranked so high.......really, I have no clue

 

[yeodonie]

um yeah. I hope you're right and that it will work itself out.

 

[LeaderOCola]

what kind of simulation?

standard MC?
what is your weighting for stochastic processes? How do you ensure your network of Markov chains is regular/normal ?

 

[Smart]

I'm sure it'll round into form, but right now it looks really raw and doesn't properly factor in opponent difficulty.

 

[TigerBait1971]

Looks legit. Very nice.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

um yeah. I hope you're right and that it will work itself out.

It is expected at this point that every fan is going to see where their team is and immediately get pissed.......

But the thing doesn't listen to hype from Disney, and it doesn't listen to wins and losses.......

It goes purely on consistency and efficiency. Oregon will move up as they dominate Pac 10 competition. It's just that the only team they've really played so far is Arizona.

 

[yeodonie]

actually the I was more laughing that ASU and BYU were so high.

 

[UTVolCountry]

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

I'm sure it'll round into form, but right now it looks really raw and doesn't properly factor in opponent difficulty.

It just appears that way because of teams like Texas Tech being so high......

But right now Texas Tech has absolutely crushed its opponents and it has done so more impressively than others have against the same competition......so the program just thinks they're good right now. It's all based on comparison to what others have done against the same competition, and what that competition has done against other competition, etc etc...

Over the next few weeks this will change dramatically.

 

[LeaderOCola]

also, this should be done (under basic assumptions) for about 10k games against each opponent to get more robust statistics

 

[herky]

It just appears that way because of teams like Texas Tech being so high......

But right now Texas Tech has absolutely crushed its opponents and it has done so more impressively than others have against the same competition......so the program just thinks they're good right now. It's all based on comparison to what others have done against the same competition, and what that competition has done against other competition, etc etc...

Over the next few weeks this will change dramatically.

I hope so because Iowa doesn't deserve to be that high.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

actually the I was more laughing that ASU and BYU were so high.

Neither team will sniff the top 20 unless they keep winning.

Trust me, this will shape up when conference play comes around.

 

[Red_Alert]

It just appears that way because of teams like Texas Tech being so high......

But right now Texas Tech has absolutely crushed its opponents and it has done so more impressively than others have against the same competition......so the program just thinks they're good right now. It's all based on comparison to what others have done against the same competition, and what that competition has done against other competition, etc etc...

Over the next few weeks this will change dramatically.

Actually Tech has the best defense in the Big XII right now..

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

also, this should be done (under basic assumptions) for about 10k games against each opponent to get more robust statistics

Meh......I'm just lining them all up at a mutual location and playing them as it is right now.....

If you can't beat them this week, maybe you'll beat them next week. Plain and simply, that's how the system works.

 

[GunsUp_ShootinBlanks]

Actually Tech has the best defense in the nation right now..

fify

Looks legit. Very nice.

 

[LeaderOCola]

Meh......I'm just lining them all up at a mutual location and playing them as it is right now.....

If you can't beat them this week, maybe you'll beat them next week. Plain and simply, that's how the system works.

plain and simple, your algorithm , with no more details given, is not robust or valid
{I do computational molecular simulation for a living}

 

[herky]

Robust is always better.

ie. Disney

 

[TigerBait1971]

plain and simple, your algorithm , with no more details given, is not robust or valid
{I do computational molecular simulation for a living}

An not a fuck was given.

 

[LeaderOCola]

Robust is always better.

ie. Disney

in a mathematical programming/model sense, robust doesn't have the same connotation

but keep fucking that chicken