Questions on Sammy Watkins..........

[TrustMeIamRight]

What am I missing on this guy? I really do like him, but people (draft analysts/sports radio, etc.) are talking about him as the best WR coming out of college since Calvin Johnson.

I mean -- he seems like he has the chance to be the best WR in this draft class, but I just don't see him being a guy that is going to take over a game like a AJ Green, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, etc. All of these guys are 3 and 4 inches taller than Watkins and ran just as fast or faster.

I hear people talking about trading away picks to move up to draft him, so I'm just curious if there is something I am missing about this guy that makes him a can't miss prospect worth trading away depth to acquire.

I just want to preface -- I really like Watkins and if he falls to #10, I'd be ecstatic if the Lions drafted him. In the end though -- he isn't short, but he isn't really big when it comes to NFL WRs right now and while he is fast, it isn't as if he was running sub 4.40's, he didn't jump out of the gym on his vertical (only 34 inches).

Is it the Lions win now mode that people want to trade up for him or is it the Lions have multiple needs at WR and Watkins can play both inside and outside? Don't know why, but I was just thinking about this today and was curious to hear everyone's take on why he is a can't miss guy.

 

[gandydancer]

Watch the film, if you have not already. Think I remember you being like me. A film hog.
many called the offense a gimmick offense. Watch them run a complete route tree. This with a QB with not great arm strength. Yes he had many catches that were screens. The OC should be shot if you play 5-10 off him and don't run screens.

That being said, the one thing I don't like. Did not see a lot of press coverage on him. So not sure how he gets off the ball in man. He will see press coverage in fall.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I haven't read anywhere that compares Watkins to Calvin. However, the NFL has transitioned over the last few years to a pass happy offense where you need reliable hands/speedy/very good route running receivers, no matter what their height is. All incoming draft prospects need to hone their skills for the transition from college to the NFL level, strictly going back to my statement of being a very good route running receiver. I don't think most Lions posters WANT to give up picks but our lackluster receiving corps leaves some question marks.


The Panthers and Eagles both have #1 WR's that are much smaller than Watkins but are able to create separation at the LOS.


IMO, the best WR options for Detroit in this draft are the speedy, good hands, good collegiate route runners in the likes of Watkins, Beckham Jr. or Cooks. All of which can create spereration at the LOS and are projected to be gone in the 1st rd. There's still some good possession receiver types in Matthew, Adams, Robinson, Moncrief and others. Watkins just seems to be ahead of all other wr's with Evans closing the gap somewhat. I wouldn't touch Evans in the 1st round.


I would hate to give up picks just to draft a WR but the possibility might exist.. for Mayhew

 

[Naughtymax]

I have to say this: Name the last 'can't miss, definitely a future All-Pro' prospects who were also-rans in their first 2 years. He was a borderline All-American as a Freshman and had a pretty down sophomore year in the ACC. I also don't like the 2-game suspension in 2012.


I see this guy much more as a 50-50 chance of being a #1WR instead of as a can't miss monster. I might trade up for Clowney even with the head-case issues, but not this guy. Is he really so much better than Evans that you'd rather have Watkins and no #1 pick next year or Evans and the pick? You trade up to the top-5 you want a future Hall-of-Famer.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Watch the film, if you have not already. Think I remember you being like me. A film hog.
many called the offense a gimmick offense. Watch them run a complete route tree. This with a QB with not great arm strength. Yes he had many catches that were screens. The OC should be shot if you play 5-10 off him and don't run screens.

That being said, the one thing I don't like. Did not see a lot of press coverage on him. So not sure how he gets off the ball in man. He will see press coverage in fall.

I have watched quite a bit of film on him. I think I am missing him running the complete route tree in Clemson's offense. From all the catches I've watched -- it was overwhelmingly bubble screens and go routes.

Don't get me wrong -- I think he is going to be a fantastic player, but I just don't see how he is being mentioned in the same breathe as some of the top players in the NFL. I love his physicality after catching the ball and how he doesn't shy away from contact.

The last film package I watched compared him to Torrey Smith with better hands. While I would love to have a player like that -- I just don't think it is worth trying to trade up to get and give up draft picks in what they are calling the deepest draft in a long time.

If he was 6'4" with all of his intangibles -- I would say absolutely, or if he had a 40+ inch vertical. From what I've watched -- he has sure hands, but quite a few times he let the ball come to him, instead of going to get it, which could be a problem in the NFL against elite CBs. At 6'1", he is going to have to go up to get the ball on contested plays -- he only ranked 28th among WRs with a 34" vertical, so that is something else I was looking at too, that could cause issues for him. To put it in perspective -- Mike Evans is 4 inches taller and had a 37" vertical.

As I said though -- I think he will be a great player, but I'm just not sold on him being a slam dunk #1 or someone Detroit should trade up to get. I've been wrong before -- So I could be dead wrong now too. From everything I've watched though -- he ran limited routes at Clemson and the majority of his catches were bubble screens, which you aren't going to see with the amount of regularity he did in college.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Is he really so much better than Evans that you'd rather have Watkins and no #1 pick next year or Evans and the pick? You trade up to the top-5 you want a future Hall-of-Famer.

That is sort of my thinking. How much better is he than Mike Evans? Obviously he is more explosive based on his quickness, but if the ball is in the air, I'd rather have Mike Evans going up for it.

I think what separates the two is the fact Watkins can be used inside or outside, while Evans is going to be used strictly on the outside.

While I don't necessarily agree with the HOF comment if you are trading into the top 5 -- I would definitely want to be drafting a can't miss prospect with the upside to be one of the best in the league at his position. I guess I am just not totally convinced that Watkins is that player.

 

[Naughtymax]

between 4 and 6 guys get into the Hall in an average year. If I'm picking in the top 5, then, I want a future Hall of Famer or I've blown the pick.

 

[lionstop1]

Here's the thing:

When you consider all of the top WRs around the league, you think about their abilities and the things that make them great players. All these players are "threats" to a defense and Watkins posesses the same type of ability. He's smaller than the big guys and bigger than the small guys and he "fits" all over the field. Here's a guy that can win the one on one match-ups and hit the home-run.

Teams that need a play-making WR and one that will compliment their best, Watkins is perfect.

 

[RobBase]

Teams that need a play-making WR and one that will compliment their best, Watkins is perfect.

This is what makes me wonder if he falls to the 7-10 range. Is he a true no.1 or just a bigger Tavon Austin compliment player? I don't see a lot of teams using a high pick on a no.2

The Bears got the best no.2 WR in the league in round 2, well outside of the top 10 where you normally only see true can't miss no.1 WR's drafted.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

This is what makes me wonder if he falls to the 7-10 range. Is he a true no.1 or just a bigger Tavon Austin compliment player? I don't see a lot of teams using a high pick on a no.2

The Bears got the best no.2 WR in the league in round 2, well outside of the top 10 where you normally only see true can't miss no.1 WR's drafted.

IMO, Watkins "would be THE #1 WR" at STL, Oak, Min, Buf, NYG, NYJ, Car...

 

[lionstop1]

See, I don't think "compliment" means #2 in all cases. If you don't have a WR on the team, Watkins would be a good place to start. He opens things up for other players.

I think Alshon was drafted to compliment Marshall but looked like he could be a #1 down the line.

 

[RobBase]

Ya, you guys are both right. Calvin has maybe 4 years of elite play left. Those knees are making me nervous. Good point about AJ. He will be the Bears no.1 one day.

In any other year Sammy Watkins would be a no brainer for the Rams, but they have has the worst luck with LT's it's not even funny anymore.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Ya, you guys are both right. Calvin has maybe 4 years of elite play left. Those knees are making me nervous. Good point about AJ. He will be the Bears no.1 one day.

In any other year Sammy Watkins would be a no brainer for the Rams, but they have has the worst luck with LT's it's not even funny anymore.

yep.. and with that 20+ mil cap hit for the 2017 season, maybe you're looking at 3 years with the LIONS. and any more restructures for MegaTron would be asinine considering those health issues. Do not forget his wrist injury in 2012 when he began having drop issues and stated after the regular season he could not feel the ball in his hands. Is he still having those issues too ?

 

[Rollingthndr]

I think you guys are forgetting just how dominant Sammy Watkins is on the football field. Measurements or not, the guy has extremely strong hands, explosive first step, multiple gears and high end speed. I wouldn't rate him any lower than AJ Green/Julio Jones.

If he was on the Lions, there would be no choice but to play him one on one. Please name any #2 CB in the NFL that could handle Watkins 1 on 1. Not happening.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

Teams that need a play-making WR and one that will compliment their best, Watkins is perfect

I guess this is my only issue -- I've already said, if Watkins fell to #10, I would love the Lions to draft him. I just don't want to see them trading away picks to acquire a complimentary player, which no matter what #2 WR you draft, that is what they are going to be.

I just don't want to see the team trading away picks, when they have a dire need for depth at almost every position and impact starters in multiple positions. If the draft was thin at WR or Detroit was one player away from getting to the next level -- I'd be all for trading away draft picks.

In recent years, we have traded up for Jahvid Best and he is out of football. We traded up for Mikel LeShoure and he was a healthy scratch basically all of 2013. We traded away a pick to acquire Mike Thomas, who no longer with the team. Maybe that is why I am so skeptical about trading away picks?!?!

It also could be -- Detroit is going to have a top heavy payroll, especially if they re-sign Suh, so they need every draft pick they have to get cheap quality players, who can be impact players for a couple years.

I guess -- I just see Mike Evans as someone who could be there at #10, who would do just as well in 1 on 1 situations and someone who can go up and high point passes over much smaller CBs. If Watkins and Evans is gone -- Detroit could address the secondary or the OLB spot if Mack falls. If Watkins, Evans, Mack and the CBs are gone -- they can get one of the top 3 OL and have one of the better OL's in the league.

They have so many options at #10, that they can draft a quality player who will step in and make the team better. Also, they could even trade back and acquire picks, which is what I would actually love to see them do.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I think you guys are forgetting just how dominant Sammy Watkins is on the football field. Measurements or not, the guy has extremely strong hands, explosive first step, multiple gears and high end speed. I wouldn't rate him any lower than AJ Green/Julio Jones.

DeAndre Hopkins put up better stats the year before for Clemson. Houston drafted him in the 2nd round. He had 1400 yards receiving and 18 touchdowns for Clemson, while Watkins had 1200 and 12 touchdowns this past year.

The reason Watkins will not be in the same class as Julio Jones and AJ Green -- They are both 3 inches taller. If Watkins was 6'4" -- I'd absolutely agree. At 6'1" though -- he only had a vertical of 34 inches, which isn't terrible, but it was 28th among WR at the combine.

I'm not trying to say Detroit should steer clear of Watkins. I think he will be a quality player. After watching the film on him though, including one that showed every single catch he made for the year. The majority were made off two routes -- bubble screen and go route. He was never jammed at the line of scrimmage, which is something he will have to deal with in the NFL and many times, instead of going back to the ball, he would wait for the ball to get to him and that can be a problem when you are playing against elite CBs on a game to game basis.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

IMO, Watkins "would be THE #1 WR" at STL, Oak, Min, Buf, NYG, NYJ, Car...

Is he a #1 WR, by default, or #1 WR because that is what he is supposed to be? That is the question.

Not to take anything away from Watkins, but Victor Cruz would still be the #1 option for the NYG. The other teams, outside of Carolina, it doesn't help to be a #1 WR when you don't have a QB to throw you the ball.

 

[lionstop1]

I'm not sure why we keep thinking that a "compliment" to CJ should be equal to what we classify as a #2 WR when its all about putting the best player possible opposite CJ. CJ and Watkins would compliment each other in my mind. When could we ever say that?

Focusing on the screen passes that Clemson ran is an attempt to find a weakness in his game and it doesnt completely define his skill-set. He's been a very productive player his entire career and I believe thats another thing teams covet about him. If it doesnt cost much to trade for him, it might be worth it. Evans is a good bet too and Im sure the Lions will be at his pro-day too.

 

[RobBase]

Looks less like the Rams will not have the luxury of taking Watkins, and will instead be forced to take another tackle.

The Baltimore Sun reports the Raiders are expected to sign free agent T/G Rodger Saffold "for roughly $8 million per year."

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I'm not sure why we keep thinking that a "compliment" to CJ should be equal to what we classify as a #2 WR when its all about putting the best player possible opposite CJ. CJ and Watkins would compliment each other in my mind. When could we ever say that?

Focusing on the screen passes that Clemson ran is an attempt to find a weakness in his game and it doesnt completely define his skill-set. He's been a very productive player his entire career and I believe thats another thing teams covet about him. If it doesnt cost much to trade for him, it might be worth it. Evans is a good bet too and Im sure the Lions will be at his pro-day too.

I agree, he would be the best option to line up across from Calvin. My only issue is trading away valuable draft picks to get him, which seems like it is what Detroit would have to do. Detroit couldn't win the NFC North when they were healthy and the rest of the conference were without key players for months at a time, including both Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers.

As I said -- if we were one player away from being a really good team, who could compete for the Super Bowl -- I'd say trade away the pick/picks to move up for Watkins. Detroit has numerous positions they need to upgrade though, as well as add depth as we can't rely on staying healthy as injuries happen in the NFL.

Lastly -- I've already said I would be ecstatic if Watkins fell to #10. I am just stating -- those talking about Watkins, as if he will step on the field and put up big numbers, may want to temper the expectations. He is a tremendous player, but he will be facing coverages he didn't see in college and he is going to have to get used to being jammed at the line of scrimmage, which he didn't deal with in college. You don't have to look any further than Tavon Austin. He was a guy who put up big numbers in college catching those bubble screens at WVU. He had some shining moments last year, but he also struggled tremendously at times too.

If I had a choice of who I'd want at #10 -- it'd be Watkins. If they have to trade up to get him -- I really hope they don't waste the picks. I'd much rather have Mike Evans, one of the OL, one of the CBs, Mack and whoever we get in the 2nd round. Two players fills two holes and adds depth to the team. That is much more valuable than a #2 WR, IMO.