Projecting: Jurickson Profar

[jta4437]

We pretty much have 8 guys guaranteed starting spots right now, DH remains the primary point of debate, and as a DH can be pretty much anyone, we'll leave it out, we'll project the 8 regular fielders

We'll start the debate with Jurickson Profar, stick to the format and don't bring in other scenarios (trades/demotions/injuries) assume this player is playing 85-90% or more of the ABs at this position over the course of the season

If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, this is for those who don't, and honestly I'm bored

2B: Jurickson Profar

Batting Average: .272
OBP %: .339
SLG %: .389
HR: 14
R: 72
2B: 28
3B: 2
RBI: 62
SB: 8
WAR: 3.5

 

[Bmurph]

Profar

BA .268
OBP% .341
SLG% .385
HR 13
Runs 68
2B 24
3B 2
RBI 60
SB 6
WAR 3.3

 

[romeo212000]

2B: Jurickson Profar

Batting Average: .275
OBP %: .336
SLG %: .385
HR: 15
R: 70
2B: 25
3B: 3
RBI: 67
SB: 10
WAR: 3.0

 

[UK Cowboy]

Profar

BA: .320
OBP: .378
SLG: .440
HR: 32
R: 102
2B: 38
3B: 9
RBI: 104
SB: 24
WAR: 5.0

.....When he's 26

 

[RevSader]

We pretty much have 8 guys guaranteed starting spots right now, DH remains the primary point of debate, and as a DH can be pretty much anyone, we'll leave it out, we'll project the 8 regular fielders

We'll start the debate with Jurickson Profar, stick to the format and don't bring in other scenarios (trades/demotions/injuries) assume this player is playing 85-90% or more of the ABs at this position over the course of the season

If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, this is for those who don't, and honestly I'm bored

2B: Jurickson Profar

Batting Average: .272
OBP %: .339
SLG %: .389
HR: 14
R: 72
2B: 28
3B: 2
RBI: 62
SB: 8
WAR: 3.5

I want to suggest we add total PAs. I'll do that with my projection later.

 

[RevSader]

150 games
550 PA
Batting Average: .260
OBP %: .330
SLG %: .375
wRC+: 95
HR: 13
R: 60
2B: 20
3B: 1
RBI: 55
SB: 5
WAR: 2.5

Call me bearish if you will , but I would be happy if he met these.

 

[RevSader]

Profar

BA: .320
OBP: .378
SLG: .440
HR: 32
R: 102
2B: 38
3B: 9
RBI: 104
SB: 24
WAR: 5.0

.....When he's 26

If he hits that many homers and doubles his slugging would be much higher. I don't ever see that happening though. I don't think he has the speed or the power to put those numbers up. That's an MVP level season.

 

[Bmurph]

If he hits that many homers and doubles his slugging would be much higher. I don't ever see that happening though. I don't think he has the speed or the power to put those numbers up. That's an MVP level season.

Agree completely and his WAR would be higher

 

[RevSader]

Agree completely and his WAR would be higher

Assuming he plays above average to elite level defense, then absolutely. He would be closer to a 7 win player at that level of offensive output combined with elite defense I would guess.

 

[WilltheThrill]

We pretty much have 8 guys guaranteed starting spots right now, DH remains the primary point of debate, and as a DH can be pretty much anyone, we'll leave it out, we'll project the 8 regular fielders

We'll start the debate with Jurickson Profar, stick to the format and don't bring in other scenarios (trades/demotions/injuries) assume this player is playing 85-90% or more of the ABs at this position over the course of the season

If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, this is for those who don't, and honestly I'm bored

2B: Jurickson Profar

Batting Average: .272
OBP %: .339
SLG %: .389
HR: 14
R: 72
2B: 28
3B: 2
RBI: 62
SB: 8
WAR: 3.5

I know these #'s are purely guesstimates, so forgive the technical nature of my post, but your stats for Profar would give him 632 AB for the season (which would have made him tops on the Rangers in 2013 and #9 in all of MLB). That being said, I like your projections, but I'll be just a touch more pessimistic.

I'm starting with games played and at-bats and working from there:

Games: 148
At-Bats: 511
BA: .262
OBP: .333
SLG: .380
HR: 11
R: 68
2B: 21
3B: 3
RBI: 59
SB: 10
WAR: 3.2

I think it takes him another full season to get his feet wet before he takes off and starts hitting in the .290 range with 18-20 HR and closer to 80 RBI.

 

[WilltheThrill]

150 games
550 PA
Batting Average: .260
OBP %: .330
SLG %: .375
wRC+: 95
HR: 13
R: 60
2B: 20
3B: 1
RBI: 55
SB: 5
WAR: 2.5

Call me bearish if you will , but I would be happy if he met these.

Wow. Just saw this after I completed my post and our numbers are scary close. I went with at-bats instead and just figured conservatively on the walks to get the .333 OBP. I think most of us on this thread so far are of the same mindset for what Profar might do in 2014.

 

[RevSader]

Wow. Just saw this after I completed my post and our numbers are scary close. I went with at-bats instead and just figured conservatively on the walks to get the .333 OBP. I think most of us on this thread so far are of the same mindset for what Profar might do in 2014.

I would love for him to hit the numbers JTA posted. That would be fantastic. I guess I am just a little down on most offensive players not named Beltre after the past couple of seasons. I know he has potential and is still quite young, but even the lower end, Texas needs from him.

 

[jta4437]

As I see it, some of us are optimistic within reason and some of us are pessimistic but also within reason, that's what I wanted to see

I know I'm more optimistic than most, though I believe I was bit high with the average, something in the low 260's is probably more realistic

I think the truth ends up being some combination of the whole

I think Profar pretty much plays every game unless injured, but I certainly didn't want to get too technical with it

 

[TDs3nOut]

Did Profar struggle as a right handed batter in the minors like he did last year? I looked for his minor league splits but couldn't find them.

Also noticed that he stole quite a few bases one year in the minors (24, I think). I thought that was kind of interesting, since it was pretty much an outlier and it was at a low level of the minors. I don't know much about it, but I suspect it's probably not uncommon for a guy to have more success stealing bases in low level minor league play than he ever will in the majors.

 

[jta4437]

Did Profar struggle as a right handed batter in the minors like he did last year? I looked for his minor league splits but couldn't find them.

Also noticed that he stole quite a few bases one year in the minors (24, I think). I thought that was kind of interesting, since it was pretty much an outlier and it was at a low level of the minors. I don't know much about it, but I suspect it's probably not uncommon for a guy to have more success stealing bases in low level minor league play than he ever will in the majors.

Profar has never really projected to be a big base stealer, not because he's not quick or fast, I think he just doesn't have great instincts, I suppose he could get better over time

The 24 was probably the result of running on low level catchers

Jurickson Profar at Minor League Central

Looks like up to this point he's actually been better vs. LHPs in the minors

 

[TDs3nOut]

Profar has never really projected to be a big base stealer, not because he's not quick or fast, I think he just doesn't have great instincts, I suppose he could get better over time

The 24 was probably the result of running on low level catchers

Jurickson Profar at Minor League Central

Looks like up to this point he's actually been better vs. LHPs in the minors

Thanks. That's pretty encouraging that he hit so well as a RHB in the minors. I guess his struggles from that side of the plate last year are probably due to limited ABs and switching defensive positions so much when he did play.

 

[PDay8810]

I expect a solid season with some pop.


Batting Average: .277
OBP %: .345
SLG %: .390
HR: 19
R: 78
2B: 30
3B: 2
RBI: 68
SB: 10
WAR: need a little help here from the more technical crowd


think he'll K more than we'd like but expect him to be very solid with the glove.


I remain very happy we'll get to see Elvis & Profar around the bag this season

 

[WastinSomeTime]

As I see it, some of us are optimistic within reason and some of us are pessimistic but also within reason, that's what I wanted to see

I know I'm more optimistic than most, though I believe I was bit high with the average, something in the low 260's is probably more realistic

I think the truth ends up being some combination of the whole

I think Profar pretty much plays every game unless injured, but I certainly didn't want to get too technical with it

I don't know jta, you may be right about the 270's. I agree it is optimistic but with him playing a set position each game it may help. I mean he really went through the ringer last year. I also think he just might teeter over the 400 slg pct. Yeah, I know. Optimistic too.

 

[scotsman1948]

We pretty much have 8 guys guaranteed starting spots right now, DH remains the primary point of debate, and as a DH can be pretty much anyone, we'll leave it out, we'll project the 8 regular fielders

We'll start the debate with Jurickson Profar, stick to the format and don't bring in other scenarios (trades/demotions/injuries) assume this player is playing 85-90% or more of the ABs at this position over the course of the season

If you find such exercises pointless, then don't post, this is for those who don't, and honestly I'm bored

2B: Jurickson Profar

Batting Average: .272
OBP %: .339
SLG %: .389
HR: 14
R: 72
2B: 28
3B: 2
RBI: 62
SB: 8
WAR: 3.5

sounds good hope you are close