Projected points/playoffs from current standings

[SLY]

The halfway mark of the season you can definitely have a general idea. However, obviously the more games you allow the higher the probabilty of your outcome being correct.

 

[SLY]

I'll see you guys next season.

lol, you and me both I guess.

 

[LeaderOCola]

Man, you guys aren't very picky about your sample sizes...

40 would be pushing it for me. I'd prefer upwards of 50. Plus corrections for past individual/team performance.

well hell, we could try to predict injuries , account for strength of schedule, factor in home/road to date, and this, and that, but I'm not THAT* interested. Sure it would be a more robust model... Then you mention the bolded part, which if I'm reading you right, are you saying like an exponential moving average bias, or some sort of gradient corrector (talk about small sampling size...)

 

[LeaderOCola]

The halfway mark of the season you can definitely have a general idea. However, obviously the more games you allow the higher the probabilty of your outcome being correct.

I guarantee my projections to be 100% by around April 15.

 

[Darkstone42]

well hell, we could try to predict injuries , account for strength of schedule, factor in home/road to date, and this, and that, but I'm not THAT* interested. Sure it would be a more robust model... Then you mention the bolded part, which if I'm reading you right, are you saying like an exponential moving average bias, or some sort of gradient corrector (talk about small sampling size...)

It's harder to do in hockey, and usually not worth it, but yeah. Too many injuries, too much variation in individual performance, etc.

But in baseball, you can practically predict the outcome of a season by just combining the WARs of the players on each team.

 

[SLY]

I guarantee my projections to be 100% by around April 15.

lol. Mine will be too.

 

[KennyBanyeah]

Man, you guys aren't very picky about your sample sizes...

40 would be pushing it for me. I'd prefer upwards of 50. Plus corrections for past individual/team performance.

I'll raise you to 80!!!

On an interesting anecdotal note, in the last 2 NHL seasons 16 teams have been in playoff position (obviously) at the 20 game mark; 15 of those teams went on to make the playoffs.

 

[IPostedWhat]

In the six complete seasons since the NHL lockout (or the "shootout era"), the standings as of November 4 each season have been uncannily accurate in predicting who will make the playoffs. Of the 96 teams who have grabbed playoff spots, 88 of them were either in the top eight in their conference on November 4 or within two points of a playoff spot.

Last November 4, the Buffalo Sabres were dead last in the Eastern Conference with a 3-8-2 record. They made the playoffs, becoming the eighth team since 2005-06 to overcome more than a two-point deficit to qualify for the post-season. This year's team is off to a better start (6-5-0 at this writing) and appears to be better prepared to weather the inevitable fight for a playoff spot as the season wears on.

WNY High School Sports News|WNY High School Football|College|University at Buffalo | Sports | Metrowny.com

 

[LeaderOCola]

+1 nice link

 

[KennyBanyeah]

I'll raise you to 80!!!

On an interesting anecdotal note, in the last 2 NHL seasons 16 Eastern Conference teams have been in playoff position (obviously) at the 20 game mark; 15 of those teams went on to make the playoffs.

That should read Eastern Conference teams.

 

[LeaderOCola]

updated

total predicted points, division winners with *

1 Pittsburgh* 114.80
2 Washington* 113.54
3 NYR 107.23
4 Philadelphia 105.43
5 Buffalo 105.43
6 Toronto* 103.87
7 Florida 99.57
8 NJ 94.62
9 Tampa 93.71
10 Ottawa 82.00
11 Boston 75.69
12 Carolina 71.07
13 Winnipeg 71.07
14 Montreal 70.29
15 NYI 68.33







1 Dallas* 128.86
2 Edmonton* 117.14
3 Minnesota 111.29
4 SJ 107.23
5 Chicago* 103.87
6 Phoenix 100.92
7 Detroit 94.62
8 Nashville 93.71
9 LA 92.93
10 StL 82.00
11 Vancouver 82.00
12 Colorado 82.00
13 Calgary 76.14
14 Anaheim 76.14
15 Columbus 29.29



PLAYOFF R1 Matchups

East
Pittsburgh*
NJ

NYR
Philadelphia

Toronto*
Buffalo

Washington*
Florida


West
Dallas*
Nashville

Minnesota
SJ

Chicago*
Phoenix

Edmonton*
Detroit

 

[filosofy29]

updated

total predicted points, division winners with *

1 Pittsburgh* 114.80
2 Washington* 113.54
3 NYR 107.23
4 Philadelphia 105.43
5 Buffalo 105.43
6 Toronto* 103.87
7 Florida 99.57
8 NJ 94.62
9 Tampa 93.71
10 Ottawa 82.00
11 Boston 75.69
12 Carolina 71.07
13 Winnipeg 71.07
14 Montreal 70.29
15 NYI 68.33







1 Dallas* 128.86
2 Edmonton* 117.14
3 Minnesota 111.29
4 SJ 107.23
5 Chicago* 103.87
6 Phoenix 100.92
7 Detroit 94.62
8 Nashville 93.71
9 LA 92.93
10 StL 82.00
11 Vancouver 82.00
12 Colorado 82.00
13 Calgary 76.14
14 Anaheim 76.14
15 Columbus 29.29



PLAYOFF R1 Matchups

East
Pittsburgh*
NJ

NYR
Philadelphia

Toronto*
Buffalo

Washington*
Florida


West
Dallas*
Nashville

Minnesota
SJ
Chicago*
Phoenix

Edmonton*
Detroit

That one would be interesting.....especially after this offseason.

 

[LeaderOCola]

lots of shakeup since the last time I posted these....

projected points

EAST
1 NY Rangers * 110.70
2 Pittsburgh 109.33
3 Boston* 108.09
4 Philadelphia 103.39
5 Florida* 99.83
6 Toronto 99.83
7 Buffalo 96.26
8 Washington 93.18
9 New Jersey 93.18
10 Tampa Bay 89.45
11 Montreal 82.00
12 Ottawa 82.00
13 Winnipeg 78.43
14 Carolina 68.33
15 NY Islanders 62.48

WEST
1 San Jose* 110.70
2 Detroit* 108.09
3 Minnesota * 108.09
4 Chicago 105.92
5 Phoenix 100.64
6 St. Louis 96.91
7 Vancouver 96.26
8 Dallas 96.26
9 Los Angeles 92.70
10 Edmonton 92.70
11 Nashville 89.45
12 Colorado 74.87
13 Calgary 66.38
14 Anaheim 59.64
15 Columbus 55.91


Playoffs

NYR
WAS

PIT
PHI

FLA
TOR

BOS
BUF



SJ
DAL

CHI
PHX

MIN
StL

DET
VAN

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

the science behind this thread is staggering

 

[puckhead]

starting to see the natural separation at about the 10 - 11 spot in the west now. though i would imagine LA and nsh will find their was up the charts.

 

[Eddie_Shack]

LA seems inevitable to keep improving as the new players continue to integrate and on ice chemistry develops... Nashville all hinges on the health of the big three and timely scoring from the supporting cast.

 

[Bizzle McDizzle]

LA seems inevitable to keep improving as the new players continue to integrate and on ice chemistry develops... Nashville all hinges on the health of the big three and timely scoring from the supporting cast.

thats not in the equation

 

[LeaderOCola]

thats not in the equation

you're correct.

of course, you could take the team's points from each iteration of this I've done, calculate the trend increase, and extrapolate how they might end up.

 

[Eddie_Shack]

I use a different scientific method, that involves listening to what my gut tells me, and then slapping my balls across the keyboard to type out what I think might happen.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

THIRD WORST SUCKS. I want YAKUPOV DAMNITT!!