Posted this on the main MLB board...the 538 nerds discuss the new rules and which teams they will help

[msgkings322]

Interesting methodology, basically if your pitchers already work faster than average, you have speed to take advantage of the new base stealing rules, and either rarely used (on d) or had trouble with (on o) the shift, you might have an edge this year

The Winners And Losers From MLB’s New Rules

We knew MLB’s sweeping rule changes were going to shake up baseball heading into the 2023 season. But it’s been fascinating to watch exactly how much of an adju…

fivethirtyeight.com

See if you can guess where the Giants show up on the list

 

[LHG]

Interesting methodology, basically if your pitchers already work faster than average, you have speed to take advantage of the new base stealing rules, and either rarely used (on d) or had trouble with (on o) the shift, you might have an edge this year

The Winners And Losers From MLB’s New Rules

We knew MLB’s sweeping rule changes were going to shake up baseball heading into the 2023 season. But it’s been fascinating to watch exactly how much of an adju…

fivethirtyeight.com

See if you can guess where the Giants show up on the list

Maybe because its late and I'm tired, but I don't really understand the graph in that article. Is it good or bad for the Giants to be where they are at?

 

[pachyderm]

Wait... there are new base stealing rules...?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Maybe because its late and I'm tired, but I don't really understand the graph in that article. Is it good or bad for the Giants to be where they are at?

I believe the article places us 17 the in the league BEFORE the effect

 

[Mays-Fan]

I believe the article places us 17 the in the league BEFORE the effect

Sorry my phone stuck me in a weird edit loop.

We are 17th before the effects of the rule changes. We are 8th best in how favorable the rules effect us, but I don't see how the new rules impact our overall rank.

More useless 538 gobbledygook.

 

[LHG]

I had hoped for more analysis with this article. I also think that the graph could have been presented better. From what I can tell, the Giants' ranking for benefits from the new rules is higher than the win projections from the groups that they link. So the Giants may be better than win projections because of the MANFRED score. Not really sure how much stock to put into it. Lots of teams have smart analysts and a few teams have new GMs/managers/coaches, etc. Not to mention that there were some trades and a lot of free agents landing on new teams. Its a fun idea, trying to figure out how your team will do with the new rules. Just not sure the true net impact will be that great.

 

[tzill]

I had hoped for more analysis with this article. I also think that the graph could have been presented better. From what I can tell, the Giants' ranking for benefits from the new rules is higher than the win projections from the groups that they link. So the Giants may be better than win projections because of the MANFRED score. Not really sure how much stock to put into it. Lots of teams have smart analysts and a few teams have new GMs/managers/coaches, etc. Not to mention that there were some trades and a lot of free agents landing on new teams. Its a fun idea, trying to figure out how your team will do with the new rules. Just not sure the true net impact will be that great.

I think that's a good take. I really enjoy 538 as a website in general (and unsurprisingly Mays doesn't, but I digress). This article seems to say there will be an early slight advantage for the Giants, but that advantage will fade pretty quickly as everyone adjusts to the new rules.

FWIW, I think the pitch clock is going to be a FANTASTIC change.

And I hate change in baseball, but this one is going to give me 100 more hours of my life back a year.

2.5 hour games!! I'm in.

 

[LHG]

I think that's a good take. I really enjoy 538 as a website in general (and unsurprisingly Mays doesn't, but I digress). This article seems to say there will be an early slight advantage for the Giants, but that advantage will fade pretty quickly as everyone adjusts to the new rules.

FWIW, I think the pitch clock is going to be a FANTASTIC change.

And I hate change in baseball, but this one is going to give me 100 more hours of my life back a year.

2.5 hour games!! I'm in.

The pitch clock is really going to shave off 30 minutes a game? I was expecting maybe 10 minutes.

 

[msgkings322]

The pitch clock is really going to shave off 30 minutes a game? I was expecting maybe 10 minutes.

Even if it's only 15 minutes or so the pace is so much better. No more Nomar Garciaparra adjusting his gloves between every pitch. All the pitchers working fast like Mark Buehrle. Just a better product in general. Getting rid of the shift is good too. Not really that into the bigger bases and the 3 throw over rule but whatever.

 

[calsnowskier]

I just don’t like that they changed everything at once. The clock AND not having unfettered throws to first AND bigger bases can cause a Bermuda Triangle effect that can fuck up the game. I would have preferred rolling these changes in over a few years to fine tune as they go.

But I am not totally against (or totally for) any of these changes on their own. The one I am MOST against is the limited throws to first. But the fact that you CAN throw after you are maxed (at the threat of a balk if you aren’t successful), might be enough of an escape valve to win me over.

We will see.

 

[tzill]

The pitch clock is really going to shave off 30 minutes a game? I was expecting maybe 10 minutes.

In the minors last year I think it shortened games by about 25 mins.

 

[LHG]

In the minors last year I think it shortened games by about 25 mins.

I am for that. I love baseball but the games do go a little long.