Playoff picture

[ChrisPozz]

This is fairly interesting. I first did this on paper myself and then went to ESPN.com's playoff machine just to back up my work to make sure I had this correct. Why didn't I just go straight to the playoff machine instead? Call me old-fashioned. I like doing the work myself.

Anyways, I wanted to see where the 49ers would finish if they lose to Seattle next week AND beat Arizona in week 17. I will also show you how I see things playing out as of right now for everybody in contention in the NFC.

Here are the seedings/order as of right now and how I see things playing out in the final two weeks if we assume the 49ers lose in Seattle.

1. Falcons (12-2) - @ DET, vs. TB - W,W = 14-2
2. 49ers (10-3-1) - @ SEA, vs. AZ - L,W = 11-4-1
3. Packers (10-4) - vs. TEN, @ MIN - W,W = 12-4
4. Redskins (8-6) - @ PHI, vs. DAL - W, L = 9-7
5. Seahawks (9-5) - vs. SF, vs. STL - W, W = 11-5
6. Vikings (8-6) - @ HOU, vs. GB - L, L = 8-8

7. Bears (8-6) - @ AZ, @ DET - W, W = 10-6
8. Cowboys (8-6) - vs. NO, @ WAS - W, W = 10-6
9. Giants (8-6) - @ BAL, vs. PHI - W, W = 10-6
10. Rams (6-7-1) - @ TB, @ SEA - W, L = 7-8-1

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Final standings

1. Falcons - 14-2

2. Packers - 12-4

3. 49ers - 11-4-1 - 49ers would fall to 3 if you assume they lose to SEA.

4. Cowboys - 10-6 - They would win the NFC East on the THIRD tiebreaker. First tiebreaker is head to head (1-1). Best percentage in games played in the division (tie). Third tiebreaker is best percentage in COMMON GAMES played (Dallas = 10-4 and Giants = 8-6).

5. Seahawks - 11-5

6. Giants - 10-6 - In order to break the tie between the Giants and Bears you have to use a different tiebreaker than the one for the Giants and Cowboys. First tiebreaker is head-to-head (they didn't play). Second tiebreaker is conference games percentage (Giants = 8-4, Bears 7-5).

7. Bears - 10-6

8. Redskins - 9-7

9. Vikings - 8-8

10. Rams - 7-8-1

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1. Falcons - Bye - Homefield advantage
2. Packers - Bye

6. Giants @ 3 49ers
5 Seahawks @ 4 Cowboys

In conclusion, the 49ers SHOULD beat the Seahawks in my opinion, but I HATE that this game is in SEATTLE at night in a primetime game and I wanted to see what things could look like IF the 49ers do lose next week.

The numbers don't suggest that I should have a bad feeling about the 49ers playing at night away from home, but I still have an unsettled feeling about it. I'm not sure how to put it any other way, but the way I have it projected up above, it makes this next game very important if you're somebody who doesn't want to have to see the Giants in the playoffs again.

I'm not sure if this discussion will take off but I will add that I did wrestle with the assumption that the Cowboys will win vs. the Saints and, to a smaller degree, that the Giants will go to Baltimore and win that one on the road. Everything else I feel much more sure about.

Any thoughts?

 

[bigninerfan56]

I would love to see the Vikings upset the Packers as insurance in case we lose to Seattle, but not really confident in that.

I also see the Redskins winning out as a strong possibility assuming RGIII comes back for at least the Dallas game. If the Redskins win out they're in correct? Does that bump the Cowboys and/or Giants out?

 

[ChrisPozz]

Next week, if the Cowboys lose to the Saints AND the Giants lose to the Ravens AND everything else stays the exact same way that I had it before, then it would look like this in the NFC:

1. Falcons - Home field advantage - Bye
2. Packers - Bye

6. Bears @ 3. 49ers
5. Seahawks @ 4. Cowboys

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Next week, if the Cowboys lose to the Saints AND the Giants beat the Ravens AND everything else that I said originally stays the same, it would look like this in the NFC:

1. Falcons - Home field advantage - Bye
2. Packers - Bye

6. Bears @ 3. 49ers
5. Seahawks @ 4. Giants

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Next week, if the Cowboys beat the Saints AND the Giants lose to the Ravens AND everything else that I originally said stays the same , it would look like this in the NFC:

1. Falcons - Home field advantage - Bye
2. Packers - Bye

6. Bears @ 3 49ers
5. Seahawks @ 4. Cowboys

 

[deep9er]

The numbers don't suggest that I should have a bad feeling about the 49ers playing at night away from home, but I still have an unsettled feeling about it. I'm not sure how to put it any other way, but the way I have it projected up above, it makes this next game very important if you're somebody who doesn't want to have to see the Giants in the playoffs again.

no doubt this game is still very important, and agree with 'unsettled feeling'. last week i felt this New England game would be more winnable than Seattle, granted forgot which thread? why?


New England just played another good team in Houston, and they excelled in that game. can't say they were 'flat' but not surprising they didn't beat up on the 49ers. in fact, credit to them in the 3rd quarter for getting 'sharp' on both sides.

but now the 49ers having just played a good team in New England, and traveled East, face a similar situation this Sunday. they have to face another 'hot' team AND travel again to their field.

so IMO we'll need Seattle to make more than a few mistakes - turnovers and penalties. they have everything to gain and will go all out. lets at least stop all fake punts, reverses on kick-off, flea flickers, etc.

looking ahead to the play-offs......for me, not worried about who we end up playing, we'll need to do well ourselves no matter. there won't be any easy opponents no matter.

 

[ChrisPozz]

I would love to see the Vikings upset the Packers as insurance in case we lose to Seattle, but not really confident in that.

I also see the Redskins winning out as a strong possibility assuming RGIII comes back for at least the Dallas game. If the Redskins win out they're in correct? Does that bump the Cowboys and/or Giants out?

In my scenario if the Redskins win out, they're in. I think if they win out in any scenario they would be in, too?

If the Redskins were to win out and everything else stayed the same as I predicted, it would look like this:

1. Falcons - HF -Bye
2. Packers - Bye

6. Giants @ 3. 49ers
5. Seahawks @ 4. Redskins

 

[h0ckeysk83r]

I want that first round bye! Would be pretty awesome if we won out and ATL lost out. We would be the #1 right?

 

[ChrisPozz]

I'm done now for a while but in the end, every single thing I have thrown out there has included the 49ers losing in Seattle next week. Like I said, the 49ers should probably win that game and will be favored by many TO win that game. However, when I started doing this I wanted to see how things would look if they lost to Seattle and lost out on a bye in the first round.

 

[ChrisPozz]

I want that first round bye! Would be pretty awesome if we won out and ATL lost out. We would be the #1 right?

If SF and GB won out AND Atlanta lost out, it would look like this as far as the top 3 seeds go:

1. SF
2. GB
3. ATL