Pirates' Struggling Offense: OBP and Runs Scored

[magnumo]

Everyone knows that the Bucs' offense has been pretty bad. But checking out on-base-percentage for the team and individual players brings the problem into even sharper focus. After last night's loss to the Nats, the Pirates' team OBP stood at .271..... a full 40 points below the .311 posted by opposing teams against our pitchers..... and 46 points below the major league average of .317.

And here are the current OBP's for our position players:

.404 McCutchen
.309 Walker
.301 McGehee
.298 McKenry
.287 Tabata
.277 Alvarez
.274 Jones
.256 Navarro
.250 McLouth
.246 Presley
.244 Barajas
.243 Harrison
.183 Barmes

That is absolutely awful! .....One guy over .309 and 10 of 13 hitters under .300..... and how can Barmes be THAT bad?

No team, no matter how good the pitching, can be competitive with an OBP and an offense which are that bad.

Not only that, but the Pirates have wasted quite a few baserunners by getting thrown out on the bases with alarming frequency, including failed stolen base attempts. The team has been successful in only 18 of 33 steal attempts (55%)..... while our opponents have been successful in 24 of 28 attempts (86%).

It seems unprecedented that a major league team could be this bad..... in just about every aspect of offense, whether it be batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS, runs, baserunning, walks, strikeouts, whatever. If I were younger, I might be motivated to do some more extensive research. For now, I just looked at runs scored, with the following results:

- The Pirates have scored 106 runs in 37 games, an average of 2.865 runs per game.

- That puts them on a pace to score 464 runs for the season..... which is historically bad.

- In the "modern era" (since 1900), that ties the worst the team has ever done. In 1917, the last-place Pirates scored 464 runs, while going 51-103. In that 154-game season, the Pirates scored just over 3 runs per game..... which makes the 2012 offense worse.

It's gotta get better..... doesn't it???

 

[stillmatic32]

I think we need to track down David Eckstein and give him the leadoff spot and shortstop position.

 

[evolver115]

Barmes is painful to watch at the plate. How many more games do you give this guy before you just cut your losses and move on? There has to be a better option out there... I mean, he's hitting .150 and they're six weeks into the season.

 

[bema03]

Somewhat of a tangent, but whenever I do a spot start in my fantasy league, I always look to see who will be pitching against the Pirates and if they're available.

 

[Illinest]

Neil did this to himself when he acquired two players with historically low obp to be starters. I believe that obp is the most important stat for a position player, followed by slugging.
All of the small ball crap that everyone is so fond of isnt going to work because the opponent expects it. You cant steal bases very easily when your opponent knows its your only weapon. You cant bunt when the bunter is not a threat to hit the ball hard.

The pirates need to address these problems through trade because there is so little talent in the minors.

 

[thedddd]

Neil did this to himself when he acquired two players with historically low obp to be starters. I believe that obp is the most important stat for a position player, followed by slugging.
All of the small ball crap that everyone is so fond of isnt going to work because the opponent expects it. You cant steal bases very easily when your opponent knows its your only weapon. You cant bunt when the bunter is not a threat to hit the ball hard.

The pirates need to address these problems through trade because there is so little talent in the minors.

To add to your point small ball doesn't work if you don't get on base to begin with.

Clint Barmes = Pat Meares and just think another 1.5 years of him.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

The worst thing of all regarding Barmes. We are paying him over 5M per yr.

That is just an AWFUL Contract!

Burgh.

 

[thecrow124]

I am thinking it is almost time to give Jordy Mercer a shot, he is hitting at AAA, and seems like it takes him the better part of a year to adjust to each level, so by this time next year, we shoudl have an average hitting SS.

As for catcher, I have been all over McKenry since we acquired him, he isn't good, but he gives you whatever he has, plus he is younger, cheaper, and every bit as good defensively as Barajajajas.

Now the other 6 spots minus CF, we are pretty much screwed.

 

[element1286]

I don't know, I find it hard to believe these guys are this bad at hitting, their numbers are so bad it is laughable at this point. And since their numbers are so ridiculously terrible, they are bound to rebound at some point. And since there aren't many clear internal options, I don't see what else they can do but ride it out, and hope for a general turnaround from the offense. At least until the middle of June, at that point they might have to explore external options.

 

[thecrow124]

I don't know, I find it hard to believe these guys are this bad at hitting, their numbers are so bad it is laughable at this point. And since their numbers are so ridiculously terrible, they are bound to rebound at some point. And since there aren't many clear internal options, I don't see what else they can do but ride it out, and hope for a general turnaround from the offense. At least until the middle of June, at that point they might have to explore external options.

I see no proof in the history of any of the players that would make this statement correct, except possibly Barmes, but even significant improvement from him still makes him only serviceable. Lets also not forget that McCutchen is still about 20 points HIGHER than his career norm, due to a much higher BA than his career norm, when his BA normalizes, what happens to his OBP?

 

[Illinest]

Mccutchen probably hasnt peaked yet so theres not necessarily any reason to think that hes due to regress.
Alvarez needs to have another hot streak soon.
Barmes might suddenly start performing at career norms but it wont erase the first two months. You can be pretty confident that hes a historically poor hitter who is on pace for an even worse performance than usual.
Barajas is close enough to his norms that he might finish the season right around where we expected, but unfortunately we expected him to be bad so its hard to call that a victory.
Walker is not as bad as his numbers and i see no reason to replace him in light of all the other needs that are more pressing. I still think walker would be an acceptable seventh hitter and competent 2b for an average NL team.

 

[Forty_Sixand2]

So,

I have a few friends who write a sports blog on Pittsburgh sports. A lot of of it is witty and tongue in cheek and all around good fun. There are three really good articles on the Pirates this morning though that I wanted to share:

Free Tank Carter

I recommend the site for laughs and actually really good info sometimes.

 

[thecrow124]

OK, I am past that point that we all get to at some point. It is time to make a move to improve the offense, and not just a little bit. It is time to take a drastic step and get an impact bat in the lineup.
We have NO ONE in the minor league system that is capable of being the type of bat that I am talking about, so that being said, I am just fine with Starling Marte being part of the deal. We also have enough pitching depth throughout the system that we can give up some pitching as well.
I also don't care if we overpay, and I don't care what position the person plays, we are in the worst division in baseball and if we even had an average offense we would be leading the division.
NH can say what he wants about deals not being done at thsi point in the season, but this season the rules ave changed. There is an added playoff team in each league, so the way I look at it, there are going to be less teams interrested in dealing players at the deadline. Since that is the case, the teams looking to add will be giving away more this year than in years past. So it makes no sense to wait until the deadline this year, unless you are a seller.
At this point, there are only 3 players I would not consider trading from the major league roster, McCutchen, McDonald, and Burnett, everyone else could be packaged to bring in an actual major league hitter.
Since I am on the subject, it is also time to revamp the entire hitting philosophy for our system, from the top down. I have no idea what they are trying to teach, but there is no possible way for a team with absolutely no power to strike out as much as we do, heck, no team period should strike out as much as we do.
The only problem I see with any of this is that I don't think NH even has a clue as to how to evaluate talent and bring in a player to help the major league team. I am sure that if he were to necessitate a trade right now it would be for someone like LeHair, just because he has shown the ability to hit for a month or so and has years of control.

 

[Darkstone42]

I agree with that, crow, but who do we go after? The problem right now is that no one will give up a proven, legitimate hitter at this point in the season. The price will be a lot higher than it needs to be now, just the same as at the deadline, because no team feels the need to trade right now. Mid-to-late-June may be a better time to deal, but by then it might be too late.

Regardless of price, though, who do we target?

 

[magnumo]

It's been a week since the OP in this thread.....

.....so here's an update, with the players re-ordered according to their current OBP's:

.404 --> .391 McCutchen (-.013)
.243 --> .308 Harrison (+.065)
.309 --> .299 Walker (-.010)
.301 --> .279 McGehee (-.022)
.298 --> .278 McKenry (-.020)
.287 --> .270 Tabata (-.017)
.277 --> .268 Alvarez (-.009)
.256 --> .260 Navarro (+.004)
.244 --> .255 Barajas (+.011)
.246 --> .246 Presley (no change - in the minors)
.274 --> .240 Jones (-.034)
.250 --> .210 McLouth (-.040)
.183 --> .206 Barmes (+.023)
-------> .200 Hernandez (just brought up)

Observations:

- OBP's of 4 players have improved, led by Harrison's +.065 and Barmes' +.023 (Barmes' OBP remains AWFUL).

- OBP's of 8 players have deteriorated, led by McLouth's -.040 and Jones' -.034.

- Overall, the situation is even worse than it was a week ago.

- Now, we have only 2 players with OBP's above .300.

- Gorkys Hernandez is unlikely to help the OBP situation.

 

[stillmatic32]

Is Harrison our 2nd best hitter?

 

[evolver115]

This is a great, albeit painful article written by Fangraphs about the offensive ineptitude of the Pirates.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Offensive Catastrophe | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Illinest]

Oh yeah I was just coming to post that.

That is all on Neil btw. I could go back to Jose Bautista - not the one who hit 50 homeruns but the one who OPSed .755 for the Pirates. That Jose Bautista would be the second best hitter on the current Pirates.

 

[thecrow124]

I agree with that, crow, but who do we go after? The problem right now is that no one will give up a proven, legitimate hitter at this point in the season. The price will be a lot higher than it needs to be now, just the same as at the deadline, because no team feels the need to trade right now. Mid-to-late-June may be a better time to deal, but by then it might be too late.

Regardless of price, though, who do we target?

I say right now there are a couple places to look, teams that have no shot, like KC and Minnesota and Oakland, those that could use minor leaguers, and then to those teams that are really struggling with their pitching, but are expected to be competing, like Boston and NYY. Those are just off the top of my head. So just from that list, I would say, Butler from KC, Morneau from Minnesota, I have no idea who even plays for Oakland, Boston doesn't really have anyone that interrests me to improve our offense, and the Yankees have plenty to deal from, so take your pick.
This is a short list of teams that could already either use our help, or could be looking to add prospects. Heck at this point Alfonso Soriano would be a major upgrade for us, so it isn't like we need to be picky.

 

[element1286]

This is a great, albeit painful article written by Fangraphs about the offensive ineptitude of the Pirates.

The Pittsburgh Pirates Offensive Catastrophe | FanGraphs Baseball

Sobering....