Pelton from ESPN

[rayhl111]

Anyone know Kevin Pelton from ESPN? I believe he was an exec in the NBA at some point. He was "chatting" via online and said (answered a question) that an 82 game regular season is more meaningful or telling than the post-season, therefor the Houston Rockets as well as 4-5 other Western teams are better than the Warriors. I think the exact opposite - the playoffs matter and tell you way more than the grind of a regular season. Beating Denver and giving SA a run for it is an omen of things to come.

 

[CohanHater]

Anyone know Kevin Pelton from ESPN? I believe he was an exec in the NBA at some point. He was "chatting" via online and said (answered a question) that an 82 game regular season is more meaningful or telling than the post-season, therefor the Houston Rockets as well as 4-5 other Western teams are better than the Warriors. I think the exact opposite - the playoffs matter and tell you way more than the grind of a regular season. Beating Denver and giving SA a run for it is an omen of things to come.

I can see that, the catch is, that the Warriors were essentially without Bogut in the regular season, plus Barnes really became a different player in the playoffs. If Bogut can't stay healthy, and Barnes regresses back to the passive version of himself from the beginning of the season, I'd say definitely.

As for the Rockets, I'm a big Asik guy, we'll see how the Howard meshing is going to work. If they manage to keep Asik happy coming off the bench they're going to be pretty damn good. They'll have a force in the middle for 48 minutes. And the nature of Howard's game should fuel fast breaks, when they're most lethal. I'd probably give them the edge going into the season for those reasons alone.

 

[CantTouchThis]

People still watch ESPN?

 

[shaffdogg76]

Pelton is right. The regular season does show what teams are best, not the playoffs. Ignoring an 82 game sample size to use a series of 7 game sample sizes (played under totally different rules) is just bad math.

The playoffs are all about money and TV, not about finding out what team is the best.

 

[CitySushi]

I think the 82 games is a good sample size to determine team's abilities, but it has a higher variance than a playoff series. In a 7 game series, most of the time the more talented, better coached team will win. The reason being is that there are so many adjustments that take place when you face a team multiple times. During the regular season, you have multiple road trips, playing 4 games in 5 nights, back to back in different cities, injuries. There are so many different factors that come into play when trying to find out if a team is truly "better" than another team. The only way to really determine this is by matching them up in the playoffs and letting them go at it.

That being said, I still agree with the assessment that there are easily 4-5 teams still better than the Warriors. Everyone is expecting improvement, along with out post season run and addition of AI, we look sexy on paper. I'm waiting to see how the season plays out before conceding that we're better or worse than any of the top 8 teams in the West.

 

[rayhl111]

what Dog?

The playoffs are all about money and TV, not about finding out what team is the best.

I know that means something. But what?

 

[rayhl111]

Long time ago, I heard Jerry West say that he does not judge a player by how well they play in the regular season. He judges them by how well under duress in the post season he does. So, there's that. Denver was a very good regular season team but under the white hot glare got showed up by a better team.

 

[ChuckDurn]

Interesting philosophical question. Both the regular season and the playoffs are valuable, and I can't draw one as more important than the other.

The regular season, for teams within the same conference (and thus facing roughly equal competition), shows how you stack up on average against the rest of the teams. It's probably best for determining the best relative ranking, though it falls apart if strength of opponents varies significantly (as has been the case between the Eastern and Western Conferences).

The playoffs is different. It's all about specific match-ups - some teams are constructed to play specific ways, with specific strengths (but corresponding weaknesses). They count on utilizing those strengths to beat most teams, and to not have teams take advantage of those weaknesses. However, if they come across a team that is constructed to neutralize that strength and exploit the weaknesses, they can easily lose. While team 1 could do much better against the majority of the league, team 2 can beat them most of the time.

Both are important. The key is to build a team that has relatively few weaknesses and a lot of strengths (as well as a lot of variety in the skills so as to be able to make adjustments). And it seems to me the Warriors are doing that better than some of the other teams noted. (For example, despite having Doc Rivers, I struggle to see how the Clippers will be above average defensively.) We're strong offensively, strong defensively, have depth, can play a lot of different ways.

As long as everybody stays healthy.

 

[rayhl111]

Chuck - Agree. No NBA team (none since Magic's Lakers) are perfectly constructed. It really is about maximizing your strengths and eliminating or lessening your weaknesses. W re to the Clippers: I think they have improved quite a bit. Doc, Reddick Dudley - much more balanced and a better coach. I've got them as one of the teams to beat in the W. The Clippers were more high flying but w/Dudley and Reddick not stars, but they both are fundamentally sound who can hit the open J.

 

[shaffdogg76]

NBA Champs by seed 2000-2013

#8 Seed = 0 Titles
#7 Seed = 0 Titles
#6 Seed = 0 Titles
#5 Seed = 0 Titles
#4 Seed = 0 Titles
#3 Seed = 4 Titles (28.5%)
#2 Seed = 4 Titles (28.5%)
#1 Seed = 6 Titles (43%)

Aside from it being fun and a good experience for both fans and players (and making money for the NBA), seeds #4-8 need not even show up for the playoffs because they have no shot at winning it all.

Basically, the first round is all about rewarding mediocre teams with some extra money and boosting TV ratings. Plus it keeps fans interested in the last month of the season.

Match-ups and health (OKC would have been in the Finals if Westbrook was healthy) are certainly relevant, but that really only comes in to play in the Conference Finals when the elite teams finally play against one another.

 

[rayhl111]

Shaff: O k I get it now. The NBA has never been about upsets and I think you can probably go back to Geroge Mikan and the same would be true. What do you propose? The cream rises and the better the cream, the more apt you are to get a ring or at least fight for it. Still, I think the playoffs are fun despite the odds against an upset.

 

[Attractive and Rich]

Playoffs are far more valuable than the regular season and here is why. The defense is ramped up to another level in the playoffs that is rarely seen in the regular season.

The Grizzlies got exposed for not having enough shooting while playing Allen and Prince at the same time - something that never really happened in the regular season.

The Pacers and Heat series was played at such a high level defensively - bringing out things that were never seen during the season. The Heat were mostly coasting during the first 82 games.

 

[Attractive and Rich]

NBA Champs by seed 2000-2013

#8 Seed = 0 Titles
#7 Seed = 0 Titles
#6 Seed = 0 Titles
#5 Seed = 0 Titles
#4 Seed = 0 Titles
#3 Seed = 4 Titles (28.5%)
#2 Seed = 4 Titles (28.5%)
#1 Seed = 6 Titles (43%)

Aside from it being fun and a good experience for both fans and players (and making money for the NBA), seeds #4-8 need not even show up for the playoffs because they have no shot at winning it all.

Basically, the first round is all about rewarding mediocre teams with some extra money and boosting TV ratings. Plus it keeps fans interested in the last month of the season.

Match-ups and health (OKC would have been in the Finals if Westbrook was healthy) are certainly relevant, but that really only comes in to play in the Conference Finals when the elite teams finally play against one another.

There have been several 8 seed over 1 seed upsets especially recently so I don't know what you are trying to say that they should not even show up. Definitely still have a bearing on the overall playoff landscape.

 

[rayhl111]

Plus, the regular season is a grind. The NBA is PLAYOFFS.