Overrated/Underrated!

[xpuctaqpGT]

The Final Point Totals (by alpha)


alfalfa overrated South Carolina #6underrated TCU #20 -2, -6 = -8
andyham Overrated= South Carolina (6) underrated LSU (12) -2, -2 = -4
ballboy534 Overrated - Oregon (3) Underrated - VT (26) +6, 0 = +6
bamabino overrated Ohio State (2) underrated Wisconsin (23) +9, +1 = +10
bamafan4evr12 overrated Ohio St 2 underrated TCU 20 +9, -6 = +3
bigred472 Overrated--South Carolina 6 Underrated--TCU 20 -2, -6 = -8
bravesfan overrated = FSU (11) underrated = Va Tech (26) -10, 0 = -10
bocomo007 overrated = south carolina (6) underrated = LSU (12) -2, -2 = -4
boisemike19 overrated Ohio St 2 underrated Fresno St 26 +9, 0 = +9
boisestatefan23 overrated UF (10) underrated Oregon St (25) +16, -1 = +15
charlie42s Overrated = AtM (7), underrated = Texas (15) +11, -11 = 0
ckhokie overrated South Carolina 6 underrated wisconsin (23) -2, +1 = -1
clayton overrated Oklahoma 16 underrated oregon st (25) -10, -1 = -11
Cobrabit. Overrated = Texas a&m (7), underrated = VT (26) +11, 0 = +11
drkreiger overrated UF 10 underrated TCU (20) +16, -6 = +10
ericd7633: Overrated Northwestern(22) - Underrated Miami(Fl) 26. +4, 0 = +4
hornsstampede2.0 overrated Clemson (8) underrated Boise St (19) 0, -7 = -7
huskeroc Overrated: Georgia (5) Underrated: Michigan State (26) +21, +23 = +44
jackjohnmark overrated Nebraska (18) underrated Nebraska (18) +8, -8 =0
johnny valtimore Overrated- Georgia (5) underrated- Wisconsin (23) +21, +1 = +22
mall3013 Overrated: oregon (3) Underrated: Northwestern (22) +6, -4 = +2
MarkOU overrated = UGA (5) underrated = Michigan (17) +21, -9 = +12
michaeljordanfan overrated Clemson (8) underrated UCLA (21) 0, +5 = +5
nativewebfoot overrated:UGA (5), underrated: OR St (25) +21, -1 = +20
NDHoosier Overrated= Georgia(5) Underrated=Wisconsin (23) +21, +1 = +22
oaknightshockey1 Overrated: Texas A&M 7 Underrated: Nebraska 18 +11, -8 = +3
outofyourmind overrated=South Carolina (6) underrated=LSU (12) -2, -2 = -4
Pitman overrated = Stanford (4) underrated = Arizona St (26) +7, +5 = +12
podsox overrated florida st (11) underrated Fresno St (26) -10, 0 = -10
racermike overrated= ohio state (2) underrated= usc (24) +9, +5 = +14
rolltide94 Overrated Texas A&M (7) Underrated Arizona St. (26) +11, +5 = +16
romeo212000 overrated Texas (15) underrated oregon state (25) +11, -1 = +10
rt14_0 Overrated = UGA (5) Underrated = Nebraska (18) +21, -8 = +13
runeman overrated Ohio ST (2) underrated Louisville (9) +9, -6 = +3
smart overrated Stanford (4) underrated wisconsin (23) +7, +1 = +8
sox33osu overrated BAMA 1 underrated Ohio St 2 +6, -9 = -3
starbigd Overrated: TAMU (7) underrated Wisconsin (23) +11, +1 = +12
TexasExes 98 Overrated - SCAR #6 Underrated - TCU #20 -2, -6 = -8
texasjefe Overrated: Tex a&m (7) Underrated: Baylor (26) +11, +13 = +24
tigerbait1971 overrated South Carolina (6) underrated Texas (15) -2, -11 = -13
trojanman overrated South Carolina (6) underrated northwestern (22) -2, -4 = -6
WhiteMamba overrated Texas 15 underrated Oregon St 25 +11, -1 = +10
xpuctaqpgt overrated = South Carolina (6) underrated = Georgia Tech (26) -2, 0 = -2
yeodonie Overrated = AtM (7), underrated = Texas (15) +11, -11 = 0
yourTEAMreallySUCKS overrated = South Carolina (6) underrated = TCU (20) -2, -6 = -8
4down20 Overrated = Texas (15) Underrated = Michigan(17) +11, -9 = +2
963bUSC overrated = Georgia (5) underrated = USC (24) +21, +5 = +26
757hokie83- Overrated- Jawja 5, Underrated- VT 26 +21, 0 = +21
7samurai13 Overrated = Ohio State (2), Underrated = Northwestern (22) +9, -4 = +5


The winner: HuskerOC who correctly picked the best choices for both over and underrated and wound up with +44 pts.



The loser: Tigerbait1971 with an end score of -13.



I wound up with -2, so it's not like I knew anything....(something like 14 people ended with negative scores)

 

[occupant]

The Overrated list:
#1 UGA (21pts) SEC
#2 Florida (16 pts) SEC
#3 Texas A&M (11 pts) SEC
#3 Texas (11pts) BIG XII
#5 Ohio State (9pts) B1G
#5 Michigan (9pts)B1G
#7 Nebraska (8pts) B1G
#8 Stanford (7pts) PAC
#8 Boise State (7pts) MW
#10 Alabama (6pts) SEC
#10 Oregon (6pts) PAC
#10 Louisville (6pts) AAC
#10 Notre Dame (6pts) ND
#10 TCU (6pts) BIG XII
#15 Oklahoma State (4pts) BIG XII
#15 Northwestern (4pts) B1G
#17 LSU (2pts) SEC
#18 Oregon State (1pt) PAC

SEC = -56 in 5 teams 11.2 avg
B1G = -30 in 4 teams 7.5 avg
BIG XII = -21 in 3 teams 7.0 avg
PAC = -14 in 2 teams 7.0 avg
MW = -7 in 1 team 7.0 avg
ND = -6 in 1 team 6.0 avg
AAC = -6 in 1 team 6.0 avg

The Underrated List
#1 Auburn (26 pts) SEC
#2 Michigan State (23pts) B1G
#3 Missouri (21pts) SEC
#4 UCF (15 pts) AAC
#5 Baylor (13pts) BIG XII
#6 FSU (10pts) ACC
#6 OU (10pts) BIG XII
#8 UCLA (5pts) PAC
#8 USC (5pts) PAC
#8 AZ State (5pts) PAC
#11 Duke (3pts) ACC
#12 South Carolina (2pts) SEC
#12 Vandy (2pts) SEC
#14 Wisconsin (1pt) B1G
#14 Wash (1pt) PAC


SEC = +51 in 4 teams 12.75 avg
B1G = +24 in 2 teams 12.0 avg
BIG XII = +23 in 2 teams 11.5 avg
PAC = +16 in 4 teams 4.0 avg
AAC = +15 in 1 team 15.0 avg
ACC = +13 in 2 teams 6.2 avg



I will calculate the totals for the various conferences now.


ACC = +13 0 OVER - 2 UNDER / +6.5
PAC = +2 2 OVER - 4 UNDER / +1
BIG XII = +2 2 OVER - 2 UNDER / 0
AAC = +9 1 OVER - 1 UNDER / 0
SEC = -5 5 OVER - 4 UNDER / -.20
B1G = -6 4 OVER - 2 UNDER / -.50
ND = -6 1 OVER / -6.0
MW = -7 1 OVER / -7.0

...or something like that...

 

[HizzleRocker]

Is it any surprise that the top 3 overrated teams in the country all come from the SEC?

 

[jonvi]

Is it any surprise that the top 3 overrated teams in the country all come from the SEC?

It's being done again this year. The way too early T25 has way to many SEC teams listed.

 

[HizzleRocker]

It's being done again this year. The way too early T25 has way to many SEC teams listed.

Par for the course I guess.

 

[Bamabino]

Good job all around, but I was jewed a point on Ohio State. From 2 to 12 should be +10. It breaks a tie with Mamba and anytime you can one-up a mod is significant.

 

[Gator]

Is it any surprise that the top 3 overrated teams in the country all come from the SEC?

So, the NINE SEC teams involved in the rankings averaged 0.2 spots over rated compared to the FOUR Big 12 teams that averaged 0 overrated means the SEC sucks but the Big 12 rocks? Real smart analysis.

These types of analyses are fun but one must keep in mind that they are slanted AGAINST "good teams".

To illustrate, suppose team X enters the AP Poll as #1 for 10 years in a row. Team X goes on the win the NC in nine of those seasons but stumbles, loses 5 games in the 10th season to finish out of the poll. Team X would have a cumulative over-ranking of 25. They get ZERO points for winning 9 NC's but lose 25 points for ending out of the polls in the 10th season (overrated by 25 spots!). Well, 25 overranking points over 10 season is an average overranking of 2.5 per season. Team X is therefore labeled as "perennially overranked by 2.5 spots. Meanwhile, team Y begins unranked for 10 seasons in a row. They lose 6-12 games per season for eight years but in the 9th and 10th seasons manages to lose only 3 games (9-3) and end up ranked 13th despite having never beaten a ranked team. Team Y would end up with 26 points underrated [2 x (26-13) = 26] for the 10 season span or an average of 2.6 underrated. Team Y is labeled as a "perennially underrated" team. Fans of team Y laugh at fans of team X because team Y is "perennially UNDERRATED" and team X is soooo overrated.

 

[BamaTee1]

(preseason) AP Poll Released/ Final Finish

1. Alabama #7 overrated by 6
2. Ohio State #12 overrated by 9
3. Oregon #9 overrated by 6
4. Stanford #11 overrated by 7
5. UGA #26 overrated by 21
6. South Carolina #4 underrated by 2
7. Texas A&M #18 overrated by 11
8. Clemson #8 rated exactly correctly
9. Louisville #15 overrated by 6
10. Florida #26 overrated by 16
11. FSU #1 underrated by 10
12. LSU #14 overrated by 2
13. Oklahoma State #17 overrated by 4
14. Notre Dame #20 overrated by 6
15. Texas #26 overrated by 11
16. OU #6 underrated by 10
17. Michigan #26 overrated by 9
18. Nebraska #26 overrated by 8
19. Boise State #26 overrated by 7
20. TCU #26 overrated by 6
21. UCLA #16 underrated by 5
22. Northwestern #26 overrated by 4
23. Wisconsin #22 underrated by 1
24. USC #19 underrated by 5
25. Oregon State#26 overrated by 1

Final AP rankings (omitting any team listed above)


*** [Shouldn't Auburn be here at underrated by 26? Did you include in calculations?
#3 Michigan State underrated by 23
#5 Missouri underrated by 21
#10 UCF underrated by 15
#13 Baylor underrated by 13
#17 Oklahoma State underrated by 9
#21 AZ State underrated by 5
#23 Duke underrated by 3
#24 Vandy underrated by 2
#25 Wash underrated by 1[/B]

The Overrated list:
#1 UGA (21pts)
#2. Florida (16 pts)
#3 Texas A&M (11 pts)
#3. Texas (11pts)
#5 Ohio State (9pts)
#5 Michigan (9pts)
#7 Nebraska (8pts)
#8 Stanford (7pts)
#8 Boise State (7pts)
#10 Alabama (6pts)
#10 Oregon (6pts)
#10 Louisville (6pts)
#10 Notre Dame (6pts)
#10 TCU (6pts)
#15 Oklahoma State (4pts)
#15 Northwestern (4pts)
#17 LSU (2pts)
#18 Oregon State (1pt)[FONT=&quot]

The Underrated List
#1 [/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Michigan State (23pts)
#2 [/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Missouri (21pts)
#3 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]UCF (15 pts)
#4 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Baylor (13pts)
#5 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]FSU (10pts)
#5 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]OU (10pts)
#7[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT] [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Oklahoma State (9pts)
#8 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]UCLA (5pts)
#8 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]USC (5pts)
[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT] #8 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]AZ State (5pts)
#11 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Duke (3pts)
#12 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]South Carolina (2pts)
#12 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Vandy (2pts)
#14 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Wisconsin (1pt)
#14 [/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Wash (1pt)

I will calculate the totals for the various people in the next post.

[/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT][/FONT]

*** Did you include Auburn in calculations. Doesn't look like and I would think that would impact results?

 

[xpuctaqpGT]

frak, my eyes must have been tired. I seem to have completely overlooked Auburn.

 

[LawDawg]

Is it any surprise that the top 3 overrated teams in the country all come from the SEC?

I don't see a problem with it. Presumably the point you are making is that the SEC teams get preferential treatment, so when several teams that were ranked high a the beginning of the year end the year ranked low, it must mean that they were given undue pre-season credit that they didn't deserve. Otherwise, what you say doesn't mean anything.

Fortunately, it is fairly easy to look at the 3 teams and understand why the had their large drops.

1. UGa is the easiest. The were decimated by injuries. Had the pre-season pollsters known the level of injuries the Dawgs were going to suffer, I am confident they wouldn't have rated them that high. But, they don't have a crystal ball and the knowledge that they had in September lead them to a reasonable prediction.

2. UF is somewhat in the same position, although I was never sold on their offense at the beginning of the season.

3. TAMU - this had to be a JFF hangover call, and of the 3, this one is would be worth criticizing.

Before someone gets their panties in a wad, these aren't excuses. These are explanations as to why the pollsters were so wrong.

 

[occupant]

I don't see a problem with it. Presumably the point you are making is that the SEC teams get preferential treatment, so when several teams that were ranked high a the beginning of the year end the year ranked low, it must mean that they were given undue pre-season credit that they didn't deserve. Otherwise, what you say doesn't mean anything.

Of course you don't see a problem with it. A prime example would be Florida. Did nobody see the licking they took in their bowl game last year?

Fortunately, it is fairly easy to look at the 3 teams and understand why the had their large drops.

1. UGa is the easiest. The were decimated by injuries. Had the pre-season pollsters known the level of injuries the Dawgs were going to suffer, I am confident they wouldn't have rated them that high. But, they don't have a crystal ball and the knowledge that they had in September lead them to a reasonable prediction.

2. UF is somewhat in the same position, although I was never sold on their offense at the beginning of the season.

Oh boo hoo. What team didn't experience injuries? Your major injuries were on the offensive side of the ball, yet your team was 79th in the nation in points allowed. Sorry, your excuses don't wash.

3. TAMU - this had to be a JFF hangover call, and of the 3, this one is would be worth criticizing.

No, just another shining example of SEC defense...96th in the nation in points allowed.

Before someone gets their panties in a wad, these aren't excuses. These are explanations as to why the pollsters were so wrong.

Well mine must be wadded up something proper. Your post is lame bullshit excuses and nothing more.

Keep waving your SEC flag Cletus...next year won't be much better.

 

[LawDawg]

Of course you don't see a problem with it. A prime example would be Florida. Did nobody see the licking they took in their bowl game last year?



Oh boo hoo. What team didn't experience injuries? Your major injuries were on the offensive side of the ball, yet your team was 79th in the nation in points allowed. Sorry, your excuses don't wash.



No, just another shining example of SEC defense...96th in the nation in points allowed.



Well mine must be wadded up something proper. Your post is lame bullshit excuses and nothing more.

Keep waving your SEC flag Cletus...next year won't be much better.

How do you explain 2 SEC teams being the 2 the most underrated? Where is the SEC bias there?

Try to use your brain to understand my post. Had the Dawgs finished unranked without injuries, or even just a normal level of injury, you would have to look at them and see what it was that the pollsters saw. Perhaps then you could say it was SEC bias and you could whine all you want. That would make sense to me. But, the reason the Dawgs were unranked is patently obvious to anyone who follows football, so you can't say SEC bias there. I think the same applies to UF, but not quite as much. As you pointed out, their bowl game might have been a sign of things to come, and I was never sold on their offense. With TAMU, you would have to determine if it was SEC bias, or kind of a JFF irrationality.

I really am not making excuses ... I am digging deeper to see what the cause of the difference in raking is. You just jump to the SEC bias because of your conference envy. If it were SEC bias, I'd admit it ... I don't really care. I kind of like the bias as it drives people like you crazy.