Over/Under Game

[MHSL82]

I hate this part of the off-season - between mini-camps and training camps. Thought we could do a little over/under guessing. Some are obvious, so oh well. But it could pass the time a bit. I took the numbers from the 10th best in each relevant category. 2011 NFL Leaders and Leaderboards - Pro-Football-Reference.com I was going to do the average for the last three years, but I have a little bit of a life... just a little bit. Plus, I hate formatting!

Alex Smith/Kaepernick/Johnson/Tolzien

Completions.......................343
Attempts...........................542
Yards................................4051
YPA..................................7.8
Completion %.....................61.6
Passing TDs.......................24
QBR Rating........................90.1
INTs.................................7
Long Passes.......................80
Sacks...............................36
Comeback/ GW Drives..........3

 

[MHSL82]

Rushing is a bit different - I am not talking about team stats, I'm talking about individual stats. Whoever leads any category, will they get higher or lower than the 10th in the league. Plus, I don't know what qualified for inclusion when it comes to rates like yards per rush.

Frank Gore/ Hunter/LMJ

Attempts.......................360
Yards............................1091
Rushing TDs....................9
YPR...............................5.1
Yards per game...............79.9
Long Rush......................70

 

[MHSL82]

Receiving

Moss/Crabtree/Williams/Jenkins/Ginn/Davis/Walker

Receptions........................81
Yards...............................1214
Receiving TDs....................9
Yards per Reception............17.5
Yards per Game..................79.9
Long Receptions.................80

 

[MHSL82]

If enough people respond, I'll do it for other positions like pass rush, etc. but otherwise, it might be more work for nothing.

 

[MHSL82]

How do you delete your own threads? Can you or just the mods? (I know non-mods can't delete others, but you should be able to delete your own if no one else has replied. I guess not being able to delete things keeps your waste of time on record.)

 

[Jikkle]

I hate this part of the off-season - between mini-camps and training camps. Thought we could do a little over/under guessing. Some are obvious, so oh well. But it could pass the time a bit. I took the numbers from the 10th best in each relevant category. 2011 NFL Leaders and Leaderboards - Pro-Football-Reference.com I was going to do the average for the last three years, but I have a little bit of a life... just a little bit. Plus, I hate formatting!

Alex Smith/Kaepernick/Johnson/Tolzien

Completions.......................343 UNDER
Attempts...........................542 UNDER
Yards................................4051 UNDER
YPA..................................7.8 OVER
Completion %.....................61.6 OVER
Passing TDs.......................24 OVER
QBR Rating........................90.1 UNDER
INTs.................................7 OVER
Long Passes.......................80 UNDER
Sacks...............................36 UNDER
Comeback/ GW Drives..........3 PUSH

That would be what I would say for Smith. While I think we'll pass more and take more shots downfield I don't see us passing that much more and I think the short fields that our defense and ST creates for us won't give him a ton of yards either.

 

[MHSL82]

I hate this part of the off-season - between mini-camps and training camps. Thought we could do a little over/under guessing. Some are obvious, so oh well. But it could pass the time a bit. I took the numbers from the 10th best in each relevant category. 2011 NFL Leaders and Leaderboards - Pro-Football-Reference.com I was going to do the average for the last three years, but I have a little bit of a life... just a little bit. Plus, I hate formatting!

Alex Smith/Kaepernick/Johnson/Tolzien

Completions.......................343 UNDER
Attempts...........................542 UNDER
Yards................................4051 UNDER
YPA..................................7.8 OVER
Completion %.....................61.6 OVER
Passing TDs.......................24 OVER
QBR Rating........................90.1 UNDER
INTs.................................7 OVER
Long Passes.......................80 UNDER
Sacks...............................36 UNDER
Comeback/ GW Drives..........3 PUSH

That would be what I would say for Smith. While I think we'll pass more and take more shots downfield I don't see us passing that much more and I think the short fields that our defense and ST creates for us won't give him a ton of yards either.

Thanks for the response, Jikkle. Those are about the same for me. I would go on the Over for QBR rating and I wouldn't be as surprised as most by a 4,000 yard season, but if I were a betting man, I'd bet < 4000 yards, mainly because of the reasons you stated. I'm glad that I'm not the only one that sees that and am happy that someone else too believes he'll get more than 7.8 ypa. So 445 > 542 for attempts. We had 451-498 pass-rush ratio last year (not sure how much audibles changed that). I imagine it would be 475-475 this year? That would give Smith at least 3,700 yards (> 7.8 ypa).

 

[deep9er]

That would be what I would say for Smith. While I think we'll pass more and take more shots downfield I don't see us passing that much more and I think the short fields that our defense and ST creates for us won't give him a ton of yards either.

yeah, this seems reasonable to me.

we won't throw MUCH more but we should be more efficient doing so. i'd expect better passing and receiving stats, but not turn into a pass first team. i've always been one for balance as the GOAL. it'll never be exactly balanced but if we can execute both well............

last season we had a lot of turnovers and hence shorter fields. as been already projected, we likely won't repeat that kind of differential? so i wouldn't expect nearly as many short fields.

 

[threelittleturds]

Alex threw 445 times last year, and probably would have got up to 500 under last year's offense if they converted more 3rd downs. The lack of talent at WR and QB led to those failed 3rd down conversions.

Adding Moss, Manningham and Jenkins seems to signify an interest in passing more, but as many of you guys who have watched Stanford have said, it probably won't be a significant jump. Nothing near the Saints. I'd be shocked if the 49ers passing game hit 4000 yards, for that to happen VD and Crabs would need to have career bests over 1000 yards each and either Moss or Manningham would need to add 1000 too. I'm pretty sure none of us see that happening.

I think the depth at RB, and how the touches get spread out among Gore, Jacobs, Hunter, and James will make it impossible for any single guy to be "over" in all of those categories. My guess is that Gore will lead the team in yards and he'll get 1000+ if he plays 14 games healthy. I feel like Jacobs will get more touches at the goalline than Gore, so he'll be the one more likely to hit 9 TDs. Hunter proved he can contribute nicely last year, so he'll still be in the mix and then we don't know yet if James is going to be so good that he needs to be in there for 5-10 plays a game too. Then again, if Jacobs comes in and takes on the role of the 3rd and short-yardage back and picks up a lot of those, he'll create more opportunities for the offense compared to last year when Dixon almost always failed to pick up those 3rd and short's.

WR/TE is a lot like the RB to me, I'm not sure any individual will be "over" on every category or most of them. VD probably has the best chance because he should benefit the most from the loosened coverage on him in the middle caused by Moss/Manningham on the outside. IF those two get single coverage, beat it.. and Smith hits them consistently that will make the safeties roll outside and leave VD to sprint passed slower LBs... this is all in theory of course. Moss is a wildcard who could possibly be an 80 catch 1200 yard guy with 10 TDs, he has that much talent and we might get lucky and that Moss shows up. I guess it is the same as RB though, success breeds more opportunities, so more 1st downs on 3rd and long and better chance these guys raise their stats.

I'd say best case scenario is two of these guys getting around 80 catches, 1000+ yards and in the neighborhood of 10 TDs (+/- 2 TDs) And if two guys do that, that likely means the other two are around 500 yards. I'm just thinking of the top 4 in the group too, Moss, Crabs, VD, and Manningham. I'm not even considering what Walker, Ginn, Williams ... Staley and Soap... will do for the wr corps.

 

[deep9er]

Alex threw 445 times last year, and probably would have got up to 500 under last year's offense if they converted more 3rd downs. The lack of talent at WR and QB led to those failed 3rd down conversions.

Adding Moss, Manningham and Jenkins seems to signify an interest in passing more, but as many of you guys who have watched Stanford have said, it probably won't be a significant jump. Nothing near the Saints. I'd be shocked if the 49ers passing game hit 4000 yards, for that to happen VD and Crabs would need to have career bests over 1000 yards each and either Moss or Manningham would need to add 1000 too. I'm pretty sure none of us see that happening.

I think the depth at RB, and how the touches get spread out among Gore, Jacobs, Hunter, and James will make it impossible for any single guy to be "over" in all of those categories. My guess is that Gore will lead the team in yards and he'll get 1000+ if he plays 14 games healthy. I feel like Jacobs will get more touches at the goalline than Gore, so he'll be the one more likely to hit 9 TDs. Hunter proved he can contribute nicely last year, so he'll still be in the mix and then we don't know yet if James is going to be so good that he needs to be in there for 5-10 plays a game too. Then again, if Jacobs comes in and takes on the role of the 3rd and short-yardage back and picks up a lot of those, he'll create more opportunities for the offense compared to last year when Dixon almost always failed to pick up those 3rd and short's.

WR/TE is a lot like the RB to me, I'm not sure any individual will be "over" on every category or most of them. VD probably has the best chance because he should benefit the most from the loosened coverage on him in the middle caused by Moss/Manningham on the outside. IF those two get single coverage, beat it.. and Smith hits them consistently that will make the safeties roll outside and leave VD to sprint passed slower LBs... this is all in theory of course. Moss is a wildcard who could possibly be an 80 catch 1200 yard guy with 10 TDs, he has that much talent and we might get lucky and that Moss shows up. I guess it is the same as RB though, success breeds more opportunities, so more 1st downs on 3rd and long and better chance these guys raise their stats.

I'd say best case scenario is two of these guys getting around 80 catches, 1000+ yards and in the neighborhood of 10 TDs (+/- 2 TDs) And if two guys do that, that likely means the other two are around 500 yards. I'm just thinking of the top 4 in the group too, Moss, Crabs, VD, and Manningham. I'm not even considering what Walker, Ginn, Williams ... Staley and Soap... will do for the wr corps.

and this is ok, a little more balance amongst players is likely a good thing?

we can lean a little more to certain players; but if we're able to win by spreading it out (a little)....great!

 

[MHSL82]

and this is ok, a little more balance amongst players is likely a good thing?

we can lean a little more to certain players; but if we're able to win by spreading it out (a little)....great!

We did well last year in part because of our management of different situations. More balance goes a long way towards being less predictable and more flexible/dynamic. So this absolutely, if true, would be a good thing.

 

[numone9er]

Receiving

Moss/Crabtree/Williams/Jenkins/Ginn/Davis/Walker

Receptions........................81
Yards...............................1214
Receiving TDs....................9
Yards per Reception............17.5
Yards per Game..................79.9
Long Receptions.................80

This seems surprisingly low for that group of WR's. If our QB's are to throw for 24 TD's than why are these over all numbers so low?

 

[MHSL82]

This seems surprisingly low for that group of WR's. If our QB's are to throw for 24 TD's than why are these over all numbers so low?

That's a good question, the link I had showed the numbers, perhaps QBs that can get more than 24 TDs also have multiple targets? It makes Jerry Rice that much more appreciable.

 

[mem49er]

This seems surprisingly low for that group of WR's. If our QB's are to throw for 24 TD's than why are these over all numbers so low?

These numbers are for individual efforts, not the receiving core all together.

Side note : I'll try to get my predictions in tonight.

 

[threelittleturds]

and this is ok, a little more balance amongst players is likely a good thing?

we can lean a little more to certain players; but if we're able to win by spreading it out (a little)....great!

Definitely a good thing if it gets spread around like that, since the team doesn't have a stud at either position. So it needs to be a group effort.

 

[MHSL82]

Someone (not me) figured out what the averages were for each QB ad extrapolated it for all 32 teams (sometimes for 2 QBs for one team). This carries no weight, just interesting stats. I don't know how he figured it out for Luck and Griffin as I didn't read it all. Bradford and Skelton, etc. have not played three years yet, so I assume their numbers are low (both should have better years due to time playing). Just for fun.

Three-Year Averages and Quarterback Projections: Putting Myself on the Line - Niners Nation

 

[MHSL82]

Disclaimer: Not my work, I found this on another message board, so I cannot vouch for the reliability. I'll save any comments on what this all means, just passing it along. Link for stats.

Quote:

I came across these really cool split stats on SI.com, here are the splits and some stats I added of some of the better QBs. In parentheses I give the % of the specified stat out of the total intentional attempts. The "Bad Throw" stat is just the number of passes that were more to blame on the QB (overthrow, underthrown, wide) rather than the skill of a CB. The "adjusted QBR," is that players QBR not including passes that weren't his arms fault or were intentionally thrown away (throw aways, spikes, drops, batted). The Adjusted QBR is more to show how good of a thrower they were, of course it ignores questionable intangibles. Feel free to request a QB and I'll post his stats.

Aaron Rodgers
29 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
18 Overthrown (4%), 1 INT
15 Underthrown (3.3%)
37 Thrown Wide (8.2%)
70 "Bad Throws" (15.5%), 1 INT
5 Passes Batted At Line (1.1%)
Adjusted QBR: 137.0

Drew Brees
26 Passes Dropped, 2 INTs
28 Overthrown (4.6%), 1 INT
15 Underthrown (2.5%), 3 INTs
18 Thrown Wide (2.9%)
61 "Bad Throws" (10%), 4 INTs
7 Passes Batted At Line (1.1%)
Adjusted QBR: 120.0

Matt Schaub
10 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
18 Overthrown (7.2%)
13 Underthrown (5.2%), 1 INT
16 Thrown Wide (6.4%)
47 "Bad Throws" (18.7%), 1 INT
11 Passes Batted At Line (4.2%), 1 INT
Adjusted QBR: 115.6

Tom Brady
22 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
36 Overthrown (6.3%)
26 Underthrown (4.6%)
45 Thrown Wide (7.9%), 2 INTs
107 "Bad Throws" (18.8%), 2 INTs
7 Passes Batted At Line (1.2%), 2 INTs
Adjusted QBR: 115.2

Tony Romo
23 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
30 Overthrown (6.3%)
5 Underthrown (1%), 1 INT
33 Thrown Wide (6.9%), 1 INT
68 "Bad Throws" (14.3%), 2 INTs
7 Passes Batted At Line (1.4%)
Adjusted QBR: 113.1

Matthew Stafford
37 Passes Dropped
43 Overthrown (7.2%), 1 INT
13 Underthrown (2.2%), 1 INT
41 Thrown Wide (6.9%), 4 INTs
97 "Bad Throws" (16.4%), 6 INTs
13 Passes Batted At Line (2.2%), 1 INT
Adjusted QBR: 109.5

Alex Smith
29 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
24 Overthrown (6.3%), 1 INT
16 Underthrown (4.2%), 1 INT
24 Thrown Wide (6.3%), 1 INT
64 "Bad Throws" (16.9%), 3 INTs
12 Passes Batted At Line (3.1%)
Adjusted QBR: 107.0

Eli Manning
30 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
31 Overthrown (5.9%), 1 INT
19 Underthrown (3.6%), 1 INT
31 Thrown Wide (5.9%), 1 INT
81 "Bad Throws" (15.4%), 3 INTs
10 Passes Batted At Line (1.9%), 2 INTs
Adjusted QBR: 106.3

Matt Ryan
35 Passes Dropped, 2 INTs
45 Overthrown (9%), 2 INTs
11 Underthrown (2.2%)
24 Thrown Wide (4.8%), 2 INTs
80 "Bad Throws" (16.1%), 4 INTs
8 Passes Batted At Line (1.6%)
Adjusted QBR: 106.1

Philip Rivers
24 Passes Dropped, 2 INTs
31 Overthrown (6.1%), 2 INTs
13 Underthrown (2.6%), 4 INTs
30 Thrown Wide (5.9%)
74 "Bad Throws" (14.6%), 6 INTs
10 Passes Batted At Line (1.9%), 2 INTs
Adjusted QBR: 104.8

Michael Vick
23 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
27 Overthrown (7.5%), 1 INT
12 Underthrown (3.4%), 1 INT
26 Thrown Wide (7.3%), 2 INTs
65 "Bad Throws" (18.2%), 4 INTs
19 Passes Batted At Line (5%), 3 INTs
Adjusted QBR: 104.5

Ben Roethlisberger
27 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
35 Overthrown (7.6%), 3 INTs
12 Underthrown (2.6%)
28 Thrown Wide (6%)
75 "Bad Throws" (16.2%), 3 INTs
12 Passes Batted At Line (2.5%), 1 INT
Adjusted QBR: 101.4

Joe Flacco
31 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
50 Overthrown (10.3%), 2 INTs
7 Underthrown (1.4%)
43 Thrown Wide (8.9%)
100 "Bad Throws" (20.1%), 2 INTs
8 Passes Batted At Line (1.6%), 2 INTs
Adjusted QBR: 92.9

Cam Newton
26 Passes Dropped, 1 INT
64 Overthrown (13.4%), 2 INTs
15 Underthrown (3.1%)
22 Thrown Wide (4.6%), 2 INTs
101 "Bad Throws" (21.2%), 4 INTs
5 Passes Batted At Line (1%)
Adjusted QBR: 92.3

Carson Palmer
12 Passes Dropped
20 Overthrown (6.7%), 4 INTs
6 Underthrown (2%)
27 Thrown Wide (9%), 2 INTs
101 "Bad Throws" (17.7%), 6 INTs
7 Passes Batted At Line (2.3%)
Adjusted QBR: 88.1


Overthrow % (Highest to Lowest)
1. Cam Newton
2. Joe Flacco
3. Matt Ryan
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Michael Vick
6. Matt Schaub
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Carson Palmer
9. Tony Romo
10. Tom Brady
11. Alex Smith
12. Philip Rivers
13. Eli Manning
14. Drew Brees
15. Aaron Rodgers

Underthrow % (Highest to Lowest)
1. Matt Schaub
2. Tom Brady
3. Alex Smith
4. Eli Manning
5. Michael Vick
6. Aaron Rodgers (3.3%)
7. Cam Newton
8. Philip Rivers (2.6)
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Drew Brees
11. Matt Ryan
12. Matthew Stafford
13. Carson Palmer
14. Joe Flacco
15. Tony Romo

Thrown Wide % (Highest to Lowest)
1. Carson Palmer
2. Joe Flacco
3. Aaron Rodgers
4. Tom Brady
5. Michael Vick
6. Tony Romo
7. Matthew Stafford
8. Matt Schaub
9. Alex Smith
10. Eli Manning
11. Philip Rivers
12. Ben Roethlisberger
13. Matt Ryan
14 Cam Newton
15. Drew Brees

Bad Throw % (Highest to Lowest)
1. Cam Newton
2. Joe Flacco
3. Tom Brady
4. Matt Schaub
5. Mike Vick
6. Carson Palmer
7. Alex Smith
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Ben Roethlisberger
10. Matt Ryan
11. Aaron Rodgers
12. Eli Manning
13. Philip Rivers
14. Tony Romo
15. Drew Brees

Batted At Line % (Highest to Lowest)
1. Michael Vick
2. Matt Schaub
3. Alex Smith
4. Ben Roethlisberger
5. Carson Palmer
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Eli Mannings
8. Philip Rivers
9. Matt Ryan
10. Joe Flacco
11. Tony Romo
12. Tom Brady
13. Drew Brees
14. Aaron Rodgers
15. Cam Newton

(Remember for all of these you want to see your QB low on the list)

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That's a really high drop number for Smith given the number of attempts he had. Batted passes remain a problem.

 

[deep9er]

That's a really high drop number for Smith given the number of attempts he had. Batted passes remain a problem.

yep, batted passes is a problem......but i would've guessed his number was higher than this.

so it remains a problem but not as much as I thought. i'm surprised Big Ben has just as much?

 

[MHSL82]

San Francisco 49ers – Niner Insider Blog – SFGate.com 49ers props: Four TDs for Randy Moss? You bet