On to the off-season...

[ehb5]

Ok. Guess it comes down to this. I believe that not all players are created equally. Some are blessed with sturdier bodies. I believe those that suffer multiple injuries are likely not as blessed and more likely to get injured again. Don’t think I’m alone with this either.
I give you two prime examples of players not blessed with sturdy bodies. Prosise and Reed. Prosise is lucky if he makes it thru practice without injuring himself.
You go right ahead and ignore injury history if you like, I will take notice of them.

I think there's a big difference between believing players are built differently and attributing injuries to being injury prone all the time.

And i know you're not alone on this. Most people probably agree with you. But a lot of people still think running the football more is a smart idea. There's a lot of old school football ideas that are commonly believed but not actually true.

With Reed... we know concussions build on each other. The rest of his injuries, I'm not sure we can say definitively.

And we know that if injuries truly are random that we would still see a similar distribution of injuries to what we do see. Some people would still get hurt all the time while others never do and it would be all luck.

So moral of the story... are injuries 100% luck? I doubt it. But i bet they MOSTLY are and trying to predict which cases are luck and which aren't is a fool's errand. And since frequently injured players are often avoided by owners and see their values take a hit, it makes it a great strategy to actually target those players at ADP. Most likely they're just unlucky players who will perform to their talent level moving forward.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think there's a big difference between believing players are built differently and attributing injuries to being injury prone all the time.

And i know you're not alone on this. Most people probably agree with you. But a lot of people still think running the football more is a smart idea. There's a lot of old school football ideas that are commonly believed but not actually true.

With Reed... we know concussions build on each other. The rest of his injuries, I'm not sure we can say definitively.

And we know that if injuries truly are random that we would still see a similar distribution of injuries to what we do see. Some people would still get hurt all the time while others never do and it would be all luck.

So moral of the story... are injuries 100% luck? I doubt it. But i bet they MOSTLY are and trying to predict which cases are luck and which aren't is a fool's errand. And since frequently injured players are often avoided by owners and see their values take a hit, it makes it a great strategy to actually target those players at ADP. Most likely they're just unlucky players who will perform to their talent level moving forward.

Oh I get it, you like that fact you like that you can get highly skilled players on the cheap, and your not alone it that regards. I just don’t feel it’s a good strategy. If you get lucky , on occasion it can pay off. I got Keenan Allen cheap last year in a league, that paid off. However I traded him off this year because I think it’s unlikely he can do that two years straight . He’s no longer cheap and I don’t want to be left holding the bag when he gets hurt.
We all got our strategy.

 

[eaglesnut]

I'd bet it's poor luck rather than something about him that magically makes him more likely to get hurt.

Sure, I bet his ligaments and muscles aren't actually his, but instead are an average of all past ligament and muscle data.