Odds to win the SB

[NWPATSFAN]

How do you feel about the odds Vegas has for your team to win the SB?

What odds if any surprise you?

Vote and discuss.

https://redirect.viglink.com/?forma...s to win Super Bowl 54 after schedule release

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Yeah, about right.

 

[Across The Field]

No way the Packers should be that high. Still a lot of question marks on that team, much of it surrounding team chemistry. Also, the 49ers being tied with the Chargers is ridiculous.

 

[Battlelyon]

Browns, Packers too high. Rams too low

 

[jarntt]

Dallas odds are fair. With health they should win the East for the 3rd time in 4 years I guess.

Holy crap on the Browns and 49ers!!! I get the initial hype on the Browns because of all the FA moves, but they are still a couple of good offseasons away from that number and I don't think Mayfield is very good yet. The 49ers is just crazy. They aren't even making the playoffs. Who would bet that?

The top 10 group:
NE about right
KC a little high on the list
Saints about right
Bears too high
Browns way too high
Packers about right because of Rodgers
Rams about right
Colts a little too high
Sea a little too high
49ers - Holy Shit too high!
Cowboys about right
Chargers about right maybe even a little too low

Everyone below that is harder to value and becomes a crapshoot but the ones that stick out:
Steelers - think this is too low
Balt - a little low and if they find a QB way too low. Should trade for Rosen or draft one early
Jax too low

I always look for the value pick and more of a potential payoff, not who I think will actually win. The one I would probably pick as of today would be Balt if they get a QB. Put a good QB on this team and that number is way off

 

[ducky]

Jags And Panthers way too low.

Swap the Eagles and Texans with the Browns, 49ers and Packers and the rest of it makes a little more sense too.

 

[Across The Field]

Jags And Panthers way too low.

Swap the Eagles and Texans with the Browns, 49ers and Packers and the rest of it makes a little more sense too.

I'd agree with the Texans being over the Browns, but not the Eagles. Can't rely on health from Wentz, and BDN is down in Jacksonville now. I'm a bit skeptical that Nate Sudfeld is going to be able to lead them to much of anything.

This isn't meant to be a ranking of the teams, it's about who's going to be betting.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

As long as Hill is on the field (which seems to be what is going to happen) I don't really have a problem with the Chiefs' odds. They're pretty close to fuck-up proof barring Mahomes getting hurt. It's going to take a lot going wrong for them to fail to make the playoffs. They get any kind of improvement, or merely not fall off a cliff on defense (haha) and they'll be in as good of shape as anyone with how offense oriented the NFL is now.

If that changes, that changes a lot for me.

Chiefs get a good draft going on defense and they'd be unquestionably the favorite.

 

[Across The Field]

Dallas odds are fair. With health they should win the East for the 3rd time in 4 years I guess.

Holy crap on the Browns and 49ers!!! I get the initial hype on the Browns because of all the FA moves, but they are still a couple of good offseasons away from that number and I don't think Mayfield is very good yet. The 49ers is just crazy. They aren't even making the playoffs. Who would bet that?

The top 10 group:
NE about right
KC a little high on the list
Saints about right
Bears too high
Browns way too high
Packers about right because of Rodgers
Rams about right
Colts a little too high
Sea a little too high
49ers - Holy Shit too high!
Cowboys about right
Chargers about right maybe even a little too low

Everyone below that is harder to value and becomes a crapshoot but the ones that stick out:
Steelers - think this is too low
Balt - a little low and if they find a QB way too low. Should trade for Rosen or draft one early
Jax too low

I always look for the value pick and more of a potential payoff, not who I think will actually win. The one I would probably pick as of today would be Balt if they get a QB. Put a good QB on this team and that number is way off

lol so if the Browns are "way too high", I'd love to know where you have them.

Also LMFAO at "I don't think Baker is very good".

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Browns at 5 is probably rich, they should be somewhere in the 9-12 range for right now. That's too aggressive. Being placed closer to their ceiling rather than their median. Would bet on them all day to make the playoffs and win the North, but top 5 to win the SB is a little much, and too soon.

 

[Across The Field]

Browns at 5 is probably rich, they should be somewhere in the 9-12 range for right now. That's too aggressive. Being placed closer to their ceiling rather than their median.

I think they're undoubtedly top 10, but again, this is about betting and not about actual rankings.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I think they're undoubtedly top 10, but again, this is about betting and not about actual rankings.

It may take a few weeks for that to materialize though, and that's gonna make it very difficult to get a bye. Browns will be more of a problem later in the year I am betting.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

The 49ers having the same odds as the Chargers is just a joke, I am sorry. There is nothing about the 49ers that makes me think they will be as good as the Chargers unless Rivers just falls off a cliff.

 

[Across The Field]

It may take a few weeks for that to materialize though, and that's gonna make it very difficult to get a bye. Browns will be more of a problem later in the year I am betting.

Oh for sure. I have them entering their bye at 3-3, but after the bye, I have them at 8-2.

In all honesty, that 3-3 mark is them losing vs. LAR and SEA and at Baltimore, and those are 3 games they could very possibly win. I think the Gurley issue in LA is big, and his best days could be behind him if he actually does already have arthritis. I think Seattle is good, but are they better than Cleveland in Cleveland? I'd say it's a toss-up most likely. Baltimore on the road is difficult, but I have no faith in Lamar Jackson. They almost beat them in Baltimore at the end of the season, and very well could have if the officials didn't screw them out of an obvious TD on that botched fumble call.

I think at New England is a loss, but it'll be a good game. If they go 11-5, that would put them probably in that 5-7 range in the league.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

In the AFC I'd have like this for the SB

1a Patriots
1b Chiefs
3. Colts
4. Browns
5. Chargers
6. Texans
7. Steelers
8. Jaguars
9. You Don't Fucking Matter, Go Away

 

[Across The Field]

In the AFC I'd have like this for the SB

1a Patriots
1b Chiefs
3. Colts
4. Browns
5. Chargers
6. Texans
7. Steelers
8. Jaguars
9. You Don't Fucking Matter, Go Away

Right now I'd go:

1. Chiefs
2. Patriots
3. Colts
4. Texans
5. Browns
6. Chargers
7. Steelers
8. Ravens

And yes, everyone else doesn't matter. I'm not very bullish on Jacksonville. I think Foles will have a solid year, but I think Fournette is a broken player, and they really have nothing else behind him. For a team that relies on the run like they do, that's going to be problematic for them. I see a lot of 2nd and 14s or 3rd and 9s for Foles down there this year.

 

[jarntt]

lol so if the Browns are "way too high", I'd love to know where you have them.

Also LMFAO at "I don't think Baker is very good".

Man, you are sensitive. It's hysterical from someone who thinks "mediocre" is middle of the pack that you get all upset over not being "very good".

Probably about double the current odds I'd say. 1200 is crazy. I doubt you find many here saying the Browns deserve that. I'd say the group of teams at 2000 and 2500 are all a little better than Cle but I'd put them at 2500 anyway because after the Pats and Chiefs (I think they are both worse this year) there aren't any teams that I think are that good in the AFC (maybe Chargers) and their schedule is really easy. So that gives them a little easier of a path and the odds obviously reflect that.

He isn't. He played well and did some good things and has the potential, but time will tell. He's probably already top 20 which is good for a rookie and should put up big numbers with all the weapons he has, but any QB would put up numbers with those weapons. If he gets the ints down a little it should help.

 

[rmilia1]

I love Atlanta at that number . Just simply bringing everyone back healthy makes them a playoff team and +4000 is insane . I was expecting +2000/2500

 

[Ojb81]

49ers ranked WAYYYY too high

 

[jarntt]

I love Atlanta at that number . Just simply bringing everyone back healthy makes them a playoff team and +4000 is insane . I was expecting +2000/2500

Agree. I missed that one when I looked at the list. That number is way off.