NL Central Thread 2016

[Clayton]

They're not going to score runs at the pace they've been. Using Bill James' runs created formula, they're averaging around 4.83 RC/G. Which is still among the best in the league, but a far cry from the 5.37 R/G they've averaged. Those figures don't include today's blowout though.

Cubs have great run prevention, but even that's due for regression as well. They've allowed the fewest runs per game in the majors by far (2.85; Dodgers are 2nd at 3.75). Their FIP and xFIP (3.33 and 3.56) are well above their team 2.60 ERA, though those figures are still 2nd in MLB.

They won't keep this kind of performance up forever, but even then, they should still be really really good. Fangraphs has them going 60-42 for the remainder of the year, finishing at 102-60. These projections can be a little conservative. They could play .500 ball and they'd finish with around 94 wins. That should easily get them a playoff spot. I don't think either the Cards or Pirates will top that figure, especially not Pittsburgh.

I always thought the Cardinals were playing for the wild card this year.

I think there are real signs that the Cardinals pitching is underachieving so they might improve as the season moves along but no one is catching the Cubs in the regular season.

 

[navamind]

I always thought the Cardinals were playing for the wild card this year.

I think there are real signs that the Cardinals pitching is underachieving so they might improve as the season moves along but no one is catching the Cubs in the regular season.

I agree, but the Cards rotation isn't nearly as deep as it was a year ago. All of a sudden, they're relying on a guy whose made 68 starts since the beginning of 2012 (Jaime Garcia).

Like the Cubs, I expect the Cards offense to regress. Fangraphs projects them to score 4.44 R/G for the rest of the year compared to the 5.52 they've been averaging.

 

[navamind]

Cubs have promoted Willson Contreras. .350/.439/.591 with 28:32 BB:K and 9 HR in 239 PA.

 

[navamind]

The Pirates are going to catch the Cubs.

They may not win the division, but it's probably going to come down to the final week of the season.

The Cubs are going to win around 100 games; however, they're not going to sustain their current pace, which currently projects to around 130 wins, all season.

The Pirates will approach 100 wins this season. That lineup is deep as hell, especially with Kang back, and the rotation will get a huge boost once Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow are called up this summer.

Pirates would need to go 67-27 (pending tonight's outcome) to finish at 100 wins.

Good luck with that.

 

[thedddd]

Pirates would need to go 67-27 (pending tonight's outcome) to finish at 100 wins.

Good luck with that.

Yeah I agree there is no way in h**l the Pirates are catching the Cubs. Heck the way the Pirates are playing right now with the injuries I doubt they make the wildcard.

 

[navamind]

Yeah I agree there is no way in h**l the Pirates are catching the Cubs. Heck the way the Pirates are playing right now with the injuries I doubt they make the wildcard.

Yeah, not liking their chances at all right now. I can't wait to see what Bell/Meadows/Glasnow/Kuhl can do though. It's not like the Pirates future is bleak.

it's nice to see Polanco breaking out too.

 

[JohnU]

Whatever the metrics claim, the Cubs have a pitching staff that doesn't figure to have many holes in it. That means they are unlikely to go into much of a losing streak. They also have the wallet to improve their team as the sellers dump talent in July. Aroldis Chapman makes the Cubs next to unbeatable.

Lots of Parrots and Cardinals fans are penciling in the "wild card". If you are playing for a "wild card" in June, cough it up. Just because you assumed your team would be in the hunt for a "wild card" doesn't mean it actually was going to happen.

 

[navamind]

Whatever the metrics claim, the Cubs have a pitching staff that doesn't figure to have many holes in it. That means they are unlikely to go into much of a losing streak. They also have the wallet to improve their team as the sellers dump talent in July. Aroldis Chapman makes the Cubs next to unbeatable.

Lots of Parrots and Cardinals fans are penciling in the "wild card". If you are playing for a "wild card" in June, cough it up. Just because you assumed your team would be in the hunt for a "wild card" doesn't mean it actually was going to happen.

the Cubs bullpen outside of Rondon/Strop is very meh, but the Cubs get just as many innings out of their starting pitchers as any other team (4th in IP with 422, despite having played just 66 games). The three teams ahead of them have played 3 or more games. There's no reason Clayton Richard should ever enter a game where his team is winning.

 

[JohnU]

the Cubs bullpen outside of Rondon/Strop is very meh,,,,.

On bullpens, "meh" is good enough if you have an offense this good. Cubs have resources to pick up a relief pitcher and probably will, without even having to sacrifice anybody.

 

[navamind]

Willson Contreras has "Simon Says" by Pharaohe Monch as his walk-up song.

 

[Clayton]

Outside of the Giants, Cubs and maybe Nationals....the NL doesn't seem very good at all. I know I saw some predictions saying most of the good teams were in the AL at the start of the season and it seems to be true.

This Cardinals team is going to give me grey hair. Losing 3 in a row at home to the Rangers by 1 run in each game and winning 2 in a row on the road to the Cubs by 1 run each.

Lots of Parrots and Cardinals fans are penciling in the "wild card". If you are playing for a "wild card" in June, cough it up. Just because you assumed your team would be in the hunt for a "wild card" doesn't mean it actually was going to happen.

Not sure what you mean but they are in the hunt for a wild card and it isn't all the ideal but the NL mostly stinks so the Cardinals have a good a chance as the Mets, Marlins and others. If the Cardinals could just play at home like they play on the road then they'll get there.

 

[calsnowskier]

Outside of the Giants, Cubs and maybe Nationals....the NL doesn't seem very good at all. I know I saw some predictions saying most of the good teams were in the AL at the start of the season and it seems to be true.

This Cardinals team is going to give me grey hair. Losing 3 in a row at home to the Rangers by 1 run in each game and winning 2 in a row on the road to the Cubs by 1 run each.

Not sure what you mean but they are in the hunt for a wild card and it isn't all the ideal but the NL mostly stinks so the Cardinals have a good a chance as the Mets, Marlins and others. If the Cardinals could just play at home like they play on the road then they'll get there.

The three teams you mention are REALLY good though. The AL may be deeper, but I think the real quality is in the NL.

Entering the season, there was more parity in the AL while the NL storyline was pretty well outlined already.

 

[navamind]

The three teams you mention are REALLY good though. The AL may be deeper, but I think the real quality is in the NL.

Entering the season, there was more parity in the AL while the NL storyline was pretty well outlined already.

I agree. I think the Cubs/Giants/possibly Nats are better than any of the top teams in the AL right now. Rangers are good, but I think they're playing waaaayyyyyyy over their heads. They only have a team OPS+ of 95 and their ERA+ is 116, but I wouldn't bet on Lewis and Perez to continue to out-pitch their peripherals. 17-4 in one-run games is very unsustainable and they've outperformed their pythag by 6 wins (tied for the most with the Phillies, who have fallen off a cliff).

Red Sox offense wasn't going to sustain it's ~1000 run pace forever. I think the Red Sox #1-3 starters are fine, but they could use another SP at this point, even if Eduardo Rodriguez sorts his issues out. I have no faith in Kelly/Buchholz/whatever, and while the #5 spot in any rotation is generally a crapshoot, it's still costing them games. Bullpen is sorely missing Carson Smith as well.

I could see the Jays being the best team in the AL again. Their pitching looks better than advertised and their offense has been crushing over the last month (.267/.348/.493, 145 runs in last 25 games). Estrada will probably regress, but I doubt Stroman will finish with an ERA close to 5. Aaron Sanchez looks like the real deal.

 

[Clayton]

The three teams you mention are REALLY good though. The AL may be deeper, but I think the real quality is in the NL.

Entering the season, there was more parity in the AL while the NL storyline was pretty well outlined already.

I think the AL has more teams that could potentially 'get hot' come playoff time, though.

I do agree that there were haves and have nots entering the season in the NL. What we are seeing now is about 3-4 tiers, though, as some teams are underachieving.

edit

 

[packerzrule]

GO BREWERS

 

[JohnU]

I think there are more generally BAD teams in the NL, but the good ones are as good as any in the AL.
The records will be skewed a little by season's end because 4 or 5 NL teams are in "reconstruct" mode.
I agree there are about 3 tiers in the NL. The teams at the top figure to stay there for awhile. The ones at the bottom, including my Reds, have some big challenges.

 

[JohnU]

Not sure what you mean but they are in the hunt for a wild card and it isn't all the ideal but the NL mostly stinks so the Cardinals have a good a chance as the Mets, Marlins and others. If the Cardinals could just play at home like they play on the road then they'll get there.

My comment was just trash-talk needling, a slightly less annoying form of trolling.

What the play-in game has done, making it more interesting, is that teams who are within sniffing distance in July are reluctant to make sell-off deals because you never know ... get hot the last week and become the newest version of the 2011 Cardinals. That team has had an enduring impact on how the trade deadline is managed.

 

[JohnU]

GO BREWERS

2018 ... we meet for the NL champeen-ship.

 

[packerzrule]

2018 ... we meet for the NL champeen-ship.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think the AL has more teams that could potentially 'get hot' come playoff time, though.

I do agree that there were haves and have nots entering the season in the NL. What we are seeing now is about 3-4 tiers, though, as some teams are underachieving.

edit

The only teams (in the NL) that matter that are underachieving are the Snakes and Mets. The Mets will recover. The Snakes are done.

Only SF, LA, Chi, StL, Pit, NY, Wsh and Miami are worth even paying attention to in the NL, with Chi and SF the clear faves but with a close eye needing to be paid to the Mets (never give up on that rotation).