Next year's surprise team and disappointment?

[jarntt]

The 7 big trending teams last year:

1. Cowboys going from bad to good
2. Jets going from above average to bad
3. Titans going from the basement to average
4. Bengals going from good to below average
5. Raiders going from below average to good
6. Falcons going from average to good
7. Panthers going from good to bad

I think its pretty likely you'll see at least one surprise team from that group.

and AZ going from good to bad

 

[Clayton]

and AZ going from good to bad

I figured I forgot a couple.

The NFC West in general has been trending downwards lately.

 

[jarntt]

I figured I forgot a couple.

The NFC West in general has been trending downwards lately.

and it's all subjective. For me personally I didn't expect any more from Cincy and AZ than they gave because I thought both were very overrated. But I know consensus was higher than the actual for both. I missed the other way on Oakland. Many expected them to be a real good team coming into 2016 whereas I thought they would be a 6 or 7 win team. So I missed that one badly...

 

[bksballer89]

Surprise team: Panthers/Eagles
Disappointing team: Falcons/Titans

 

[cdumler7]

Well I would have said the Panthers until I saw the whole Cam needing surgery.

I'll go with Tennessee for the surprise team. Not sure they should be a surprise though with playing in a weaker division (although improving) and having quite a few of the pieces you need to make a run plus lots of draft capital.

Disappointing--I'll maybe go the Chiefs here just because of the difficulty of division they play in. I could see them missing the playoffs.

 

[Battlelyon]

and it's all subjective. For me personally I didn't expect any more from Cincy and AZ than they gave because I thought both were very overrated. But I know consensus was higher than the actual for both. I missed the other way on Oakland. Many expected them to be a real good team coming into 2016 whereas I thought they would be a 6 or 7 win team. So I missed that one badly...

Yep, I went into last offseason saying Palmer wouldn't make them contenders. I didn't drink the Cardinals kool-aid and I was right.

 

[Clayton]

Well I would have said the Panthers until I saw the whole Cam needing surgery.

I'll go with Tennessee for the surprise team. Not sure they should be a surprise though with playing in a weaker division (although improving) and having quite a few of the pieces you need to make a run plus lots of draft capital.

Disappointing--I'll maybe go the Chiefs here just because of the difficulty of division they play in. I could see them missing the playoffs.

In my mind, the Titans are going to be the 2nd most likely team to make the playoffs next year in the AFC.

I suspect by the start of next year people will have the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos all bunched up and Im guessing in that order in terms of hype. I feel like the Chiefs are moving into next year being average at everything (except TE and ST) and if they dont create a lot of turnovers then they are just going to be average. Then again, Broncos and Chiefs creating turnovers is kind of what they do so...its anyone's guess.

 

[USCDoom]

Atlanta is actually a good example of my 1 score games hypothesism in 15 they were far under average in 1 score games. Last year they improved by 2 games to 4-4 and the result was a playoff berth

Wouldnt that Give the Eagles an 8-8 record?

 

[cdumler7]

In my mind, the Titans are going to be the 2nd most likely team to make the playoffs next year in the AFC.

I suspect by the start of next year people will have the Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos all bunched up and Im guessing in that order in terms of hype. I feel like the Chiefs are moving into next year being average at everything (except TE and ST) and if they dont create a lot of turnovers then they are just going to be average. Then again, Broncos and Chiefs creating turnovers is kind of what they do so...its anyone's guess.

Yeah I agree on the Titans. That is why I was struggling to put them down as a surprise team because not sure anybody should be surprised by them being good.

And the AFC West it is anyone's guess of how they finish. For the Broncos they have to get that pesky QB question answered in the near future. The Chiefs I think are going to need a great draft to really take that next step and stay on top this next season. For the Raiders how do they handle some success for the first time in what 15 years? And what do they do to fix the issues on defense? Should be a fun race but again why I maybe picked the Chiefs to be the disappointment because winning the division and missing the playoffs could be razor thin in the AFC West.

 

[rmilia1]

Wouldnt that Give the Eagles an 8-8 record?

Eagles went 7-9 last year with a 1-6 record in 1 possession games. If you assume they revert to average in close games that gets them to 9.5 wins. When you look at their metric they were a top 10-12 team so I think it's likely they end up at 10 win. Also the champ in their division ( Dallas ) went 7-2 in one possession games so it's likely they come back to more of a 10 to 11 win season

 

[Clayton]

And the AFC West it is anyone's guess of how they finish. For the Broncos they have to get that pesky QB question answered in the near future. The Chiefs I think are going to need a great draft to really take that next step and stay on top this next season. For the Raiders how do they handle some success for the first time in what 15 years? And what do they do to fix the issues on defense? Should be a fun race but again why I maybe picked the Chiefs to be the disappointment because winning the division and missing the playoffs could be razor thin in the AFC West.

I think the Broncos could still make the playoffs with a shaky QB. I just dont think they are a real contender without a QB. The easiest path for the Broncos would be getting their run defense back to where it was before so they could just win on their defense alone. Fixing their oline and QB seems a lot more daunting.

I also don't think most Chiefs fans are expecting a draft that will make them take the next step next year. Most are thinking QB of the future in round 1 and a running back somewhere. Most of the Chiefs hopes lie in the guys currently on the roster being good. Eric Fisher has to clean up his 2-3 awful plays a game. Dee Ford has to be a consistent force. Justin Houston has to stay healthy. Terrance Mitchell has to prove he wasnt a flash in the pan. Bennie Logan has to be really good. etc. etc.

 

[jarntt]

Eagles went 7-9 last year with a 1-6 record in 1 possession games. If you assume they revert to average in close games that gets them to 9.5 wins. When you look at their metric they were a top 10-12 team so I think it's likely they end up at 10 win. Also the champ in their division ( Dallas ) went 7-2 in one possession games so it's likely they come back to more of a 10 to 11 win season

so unlike most sports fans your theory assumes the better team only wins half the time in a close game? Interesting. I'd say I expect a 13-3 team to go 7-2 in close games on average. For Philly it makes sense. you would think a 7-9 team would be closer to 3-3 in close games. But I think your theory assumes all teams are alike in close games which I disagree with. If Cle and NE are tied going into the final 8 minutes I'm still saying NE wins 7 out of 10 at a minimum. i think some teams are just good enough to lose and others pull out wins when they need to and that is part of being a good team.

 

[cdumler7]

I think the Broncos could still make the playoffs with a shaky QB. I just dont think they are a real contender without a QB. The easiest path for the Broncos would be getting their run defense back to where it was before so they could just win on their defense alone. Fixing their oline and QB seems a lot more daunting.

I also don't think most Chiefs fans are expecting a draft that will make them take the next step next year. Most are thinking QB of the future in round 1 and a running back somewhere. Most of the Chiefs hopes lie in the guys currently on the roster being good. Eric Fisher has to clean up his 2-3 awful plays a game. Dee Ford has to be a consistent force. Justin Houston has to stay healthy. Terrance Mitchell has to prove he wasnt a flash in the pan. Bennie Logan has to be really good. etc. etc.

Yeah in reality for the Broncos the OL was/is not getting fixed this year. I like the 2 moves they have made so far as I think they can be nice upgrades but with how terrible this FA class is and how bad the draft looks at the OL position it would take a minor miracle to see that OL become above average. Next year's OT class looks like one of the best I have seen in a long time and in reality an OL going from terrible to goo takes a couple of years because of so many moving pieces.

The hope for the Broncos is more at the QB position of either one of the young guys taking that next step or Romo coming in staying healthy and performing like he did in 2014. Either of those happen and yes I like the Broncos' chances of doing well and being one of the few that can give NE a run for their money. That is a lot of things going their way though. It isn't impossible but when trying to be realistic this could be an inconsistent season on some fronts.

Just have to hope Oakland doens't fix the defense and they can't handle success very well. Maybe Del Rio can become like the coach he was in Jacksonville and slowly see another team sink down to below average.

 

[rmilia1]

so unlike most sports fans your theory assumes the better team only wins half the time in a close game? Interesting. I'd say I expect a 13-3 team to go 7-2 in close games on average. For Philly it makes sense. you would think a 7-9 team would be closer to 3-3 in close games. But I think your theory assumes all teams are alike in close games which I disagree with. If Cle and NE are tied going into the final 8 minutes I'm still saying NE wins 7 out of 10 at a minimum. i think some teams are just good enough to lose and others pull out wins when they need to and that is part of being a good team.

Sure and I agree to an extent but winning at that kind of clip in one score games is not sustainable. Now it's entirely probable a team goes from 7-2 to 6-3/5-4 but highly unlikely they go 7-2 again. You do need to factor in coach and QB though. It's more likely Dallas goes 7-2 again than it is Miami goes 8-2 but less likely Dallas goes 7-2 again than the Pats going 7-2 again ( for example)

 

[jarntt]

Sure and I agree to an extent but winning at that kind of clip in one score games is not sustainable. Now it's entirely probable a team goes from 7-2 to 6-3/5-4 but highly unlikely they go 7-2 again. You do need to factor in coach and QB though. It's more likely Dallas goes 7-2 again than it is Miami goes 8-2 but less likely Dallas goes 7-2 again than the Pats going 7-2 again ( for example)

Disagree with your 1st two sentences, but agree with your last two sentences.

 

[PhoenixEagles1]

Not just cause I'm an Eagle fan but I think they could surprise. They had one of the toughest schedules and played a ton of playoff teams. They were also the only team in NFL history that played like 5 teams coming off their by and one or two after Thursday night games. The schedule really screwed them playing 3 straight teams coming off their bye. They also would have beat more playoff teams then anyone if it want for that abomination of a game vs Detroit. Worst ref calls in my 40 years of watching football. Had more yards in penalties and taken away yards than the Lions had offensively.

 

[nebearsfan70]

I think the surprise team will be Tennessee.

The team that will disappoint will be the Packers.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Surprise team...Bucs/Titans
Down year...Falcons/Dolphins

 

[Ojb81]

Disappointment: Colts, yet again (which will end up costing the coach his job)

Surprise Team: Buccaneers, who will get that 1st wildcard spot.

 

[thedddd]

Surprise Team: Browns ...will get 5 wins.
Actual Surprise team: Colts
Disappointment: As much as I want to see them back in the SuperBowl, the Falcons.