Next year's surprise team and disappointment?

[rmilia1]

Every year there's at least 1 team that surprises in a positive way and one team that underperforms preseason expectations.

What I usually do when trying to figure out who those teams may be is look at how teams performed in one possession games. Generally speaking you're going to win roughly 50% of those games so I'll look and see who severely underperformed that and who over performed. I'm my oponion the team in for the biggest letdown next year is Miami. Dolphins went 8-2 on one possession games this last year ( winning their last 8 ). Odds are they lose at least 3 wins off their 2016 total. On the flop side I think the Eagles will surprise. 1-6 on one possession games is an anomaly and the Eagles ranked very high in most metrics. I see them winning 10-11 this year.

Who ya got?

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Before the draft? Darts ahoy.

Surprise: Colts
Disappointment: Cowboys

 

[rmilia1]

Before the draft? Darts ahoy.

Surprise: Colts
Disappointment: Cowboys

Yep. I thinl the draft is important but I was bored lol

 

[jarntt]

I would say disappointment would be Atl or KC.

 

[SteelersPride]

surprise-jags
disappointment-kc

 

[GNG]

Every year there's at least 1 team that surprises in a positive way and one team that underperforms preseason expectations.

What I usually do when trying to figure out who those teams may be is look at how teams performed in one possession games. Generally speaking you're going to win roughly 50% of those games so I'll look and see who severely underperformed that and who over performed. I'm my oponion the team in for the biggest letdown next year is Miami. Dolphins went 8-2 on one possession games this last year ( winning their last 8 ). Odds are they lose at least 3 wins off their 2016 total. On the flop side I think the Eagles will surprise. 1-6 on one possession games is an anomaly and the Eagles ranked very high in most metrics. I see them winning 10-11 this year.

Who ya got?

The Falcons surprised me but were a major disappointment in the Super Bowl.

 

[GNG]

Surprise: Colts
Disappointment: Cowboys

Losing to Aaron Rodgers is nothing to be ashamed of. He's one of the best QB's in the NFL.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Losing to Aaron Rodgers is nothing to be ashamed of. He's one of the best QB's in the NFL.

I don't value playoff games that way- they're just high stakes football games to me. Honestly with a decent draft I'd lean more towards the Falcons or the Giants. Just enough questionmarks in Dallas to have one ask questions before the draft.

 

[rmilia1]

The Falcons surprised me but were a major disappointment in the Super Bowl.

Atlanta is actually a good example of my 1 score games hypothesism in 15 they were far under average in 1 score games. Last year they improved by 2 games to 4-4 and the result was a playoff berth

 

[GNG]

Atlanta is actually a good example of my 1 score games hypothesism in 15 they were far under average in 1 score games. Last year they improved by 2 games to 4-4 and the result was a playoff berth

They are a good offensive team but need to improve their defense.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Atlanta needs the defense to offset the coming regression offensively or they're going to be stuck at around 10 wins; and I wouldn't count on the Saints and Panthers to be down for long with their QBs. Draft and coaching will be critical for them to sustain where they were.

 

[rmilia1]

They are a good offensive team but need to improve their defense.

Yep. D played much better second half of the season and they're yoing do hopefully the improvement continues

 

[Hank Kingsley]

Losing to Aaron Rodgers is nothing to be ashamed of. He's one of the best QB's in the NFL.

Blame the spike....

 

[PDay8810]

Blame the spike....

and you'd still be wrong
grinding an ax remains your best play

 

[PDay8810]

I would say disappointment would be Atl or KC.

LOL....I see what you did there
too funny

 

[Clayton]

Going with the safe pick..

Surprise: the team that was last in the NFC South
Disappointment: the team that won the NFC South

 

[PDay8810]

This draft will factor in all this but as of today

Tennessee is my choice for surprise team

Oakland for the disappointment

 

[Hank Kingsley]

and you'd still be wrong
grinding an ax remains your best play

The game was afoot until.....

 

[jarntt]

LOL....I see what you did there
too funny

I thought it was a little obvious...

 

[Clayton]

The 7 big trending teams last year:

1. Cowboys going from bad to good
2. Jets going from above average to bad
3. Titans going from the basement to average
4. Bengals going from good to below average
5. Raiders going from below average to good
6. Falcons going from average to good
7. Panthers going from good to bad

I think its pretty likely you'll see at least one surprise team from that group.