Nebraska vs Missouri by the Numbers....

[HawkeyeHater]

(National ranking)

When Nebraska has the ball.....

Nebraska Rush Offense 290 (5)
Missouri Rush Defense 114.57 (23)

Nebraska Pass Offense 169.14 (100)
Missouri Pass Defense 224.57 (76)

Nebraska Pass Efficiency 149.36 (27)
Missouri Pass Eff Defense 108.34 (15)

Nebraska Scoring Offense 38.86 (10)
Missouri Scoring Defense 13.14 (5)

Nebraska Total Offense 459.14 (17)
Missouri Total Defense 404.5339.14 (38)

When Missouri has the ball........

Missouri Rush Offense 138.43 (79)
Nebraska Rush Defense 165.14 (79)

Missouri Pass Offense 286,43 (16)
Nebraska Pass Defense 140.71 (3)

Missouri Pass Eff Offense 138.48 (37)
Nebraska pass eff defense 90.10 (2)

Missouri Scoring Offense 34.71 (24)
Nebraska Scoring Defense 17.86 (17)

Missouri Total Offense 424.86 (32)
Nebraska Total Defense 305.86 (18)


Overall- Missouri is not near as dangerous as Oklahoma St is Offensively...... that said Missouri is much better defensively.... Getting Martinez in a groove early will be crucial........

Nebraska 31
Missouri 24

 

[Red_Alert]

Nebraska opens up as a 7 point favorite in Vegas.

Over/Under is not out yet

 

[cdoorni1]

Just came here to post this. 5 minutes too late. Damn. I saw the line and cannot believe it. I was guessing somewhere around 3 (meaning Mizzou by 1/2 on a nuetral field). With the way we have been playing at home this would be a tough bet.

 

[Red_Alert]

I think they expect a possible let-down by Missouri after finally beating either Texas or Oklahoma (let alone a #1).
I'd expect that line to come down through the week as the money flows to Missouri.

 

[HuskerFan8807]

the money will be big on mizzou for the next couple days and that line will shrink to 4.5 and thats where ill jump in !

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

7 point favorite? Holy hell! I mean yea it will end up being less than that, but wow.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

But yea I was actually hoping to see Nebraska at -3 towards the end of the week

 

[wscdb]

I don't think the line will move under -6. That being said, I'm surprised as hell that we opened up as anything more than a -3 fav. I sure hope the posted total is 45 or more. I just don't see the winner of this game scoring more than 24 points (Mizzou defense is solid)

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

It all depends on how much action is placed on Missouri covering 7 points.........I would think a lot of people would bet early on Mizzou +7, but maybe not.

 

[huskers1217]

Sad part is that its not about the opponent. I honestly believe there is enough talent and enough schemes that Nebraska could win every game.

The question is, which team shows up? The one that played Texas and SDSU or the team that played Washington and Kansas State?

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Sad part is that its not about the opponent. I honestly believe there is enough talent and enough schemes that Nebraska could win every game.

The question is, which team shows up? The one that played Texas and SDSU or the team that played Washington and Kansas State?

I agree..........and I think a hungry team shows up. The coaches have to be letting these guys know that they cannot win the Big 12 Championship unless they win this game.

I would be shocked if we come out flat this time.

 

[Red_Alert]

Spread went up to 7.5

Over/Under out at 55

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the talking heads are spending a lot of energy talking down Missouri's win over Oklahoma saying they never thought OU was a #1 team.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Spread went up to 7.5

Over/Under out at 55

I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but the talking heads are spending a lot of energy talking down Missouri's win over Oklahoma saying they never thought OU was a #1 team.

Yes........and most of them seem to think Nebraska is going to win this one without much struggle.

I am seriously very worried.

 

[Red_Alert]

Missouri doesn't have the (across the board) firepower OSU central has.

The Pelini's need to scheme this game well because our front four hasn't met expectations in the pass rush category. Go 'one on one' vs Missouri's receivers and bring the heat to Gabbert.

 

[Red_Alert]

Big XII Team and Individual stats

2010 Overall Statistics - Big 12 Conference - Official Athletic Site

 

[landon410]

I agree lock up the wrs and blitz. Missouris run game is nothing compared to Oklahoma state. If missouri gets 200 yards on the ground we will be in trouble

 

[Exorbitant]

Missouri doesn't have the (across the board) firepower OSU central has.

The Pelini's need to scheme this game well because our front four hasn't met expectations in the pass rush category. Go 'one on one' vs Missouri's receivers and bring the heat to Gabbert.

Exactly, let's really concentrate on stopping their running game and pressuring Gabbert. Last week was one of Missouri's biggest wins in the history of their school. They will be flat because a college team can only reach an emotional peak about 3 times a year, and this won't be one of them.

Hopefully Nebraska will be ready to play. If we are I say we win by 2 tds or more.

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

Allow me to add to this conversation............

I looked at each team that Nebraska and Missouri have faced this year and based this completely on scoring defense and scoring offense (since that is what's most important when it comes down to it). I removed the FCS opponents from both team's schedule.

I found the average defensive scoring that each team's offense has faced this year and also the average offensive scoring that each team's defense has faced this year. Then I took Nebraska and Missouri's offensive and defensive scoring averages and divided it by the averages they have faced this year to predict what each team should allow defensively and score offensively.

Then I averaged offensive and defensive production for both teams out to see which team should come out on top. As you can see Nebraska barely edges Missouri......19.34 to 19.12.

***************************************************************

Offensive Scoring

Nebraska is scoring 38.9 points per game

Missouri is scoring 34.7 points per game


Defense average they have faced

Nebraska = 36.9 + 22.3 + 33.1 + 25.9 + 20.1 + 30.6 = 158.4 / 6 = Defenses Nebraska has faced have given up 26.4 points per game
Missouri = 17.7 + 17.7 + 29.5 + 25.6 + 20.7 + 21.4 = 132.6 / 6 = Defenses Missouri has faced have given up 22.1 points per game



Defensive Scoring

Nebraska is giving up 17.9 per game

Missouri is giving up 13.1 per game


Offense average they have faced

Nebraska = 25.1 + 33.0 + 24.9 + 33.9 + 23.6 + 48.3 = 188.8 / 6 = Offenses Nebraka has faced have scored 31.47 per game

Missouri = 24.4 + 33.0 + 19.3 + 20.0 + 32.7 + 34.7 = 164.1 / 6 = Offenses Missouri has faced have scored 27.35 per game


Nebraska's defense is giving up 31.47/17.9 = 1.76 points per opponent's average
Missouri's defense is giving up 27.35/13.1 = 2.088 points per opponent's average

Nebraska's offense scoring 38.9/26.4 = 1.47 points per opponent's oaverage
Missouri's offense scoring 34.7/22.1 = 1.57 points per opponent's average


Nebraska defense should give up 34.7/1.76 = 19.72 points in this game
Missouri defense should give up 38.9/2.088 = 18.63 points in this game

Nebraska offense should score 31.47/1.57 = 20.05 points in this game
Missouri offense should score 27.35/1.47 = 18.61 points in this game


Nebraska average (18.63 + 20.05) / 2 = 19.34
Missouri average (19.72 + 18.61) / 2 = 19.12


Score prediction Nebraska - 19.34, Missouri - 19.12

 

[Jack_John_Mark]

To elaborate further on what I just posted (since it is more than likely confusing), Nebraska and Missouri have basically accomplished just about exactly the same this season thus far.

Therefore, no assumptions can really be made based on what either team has done, besides the fact that I would say there will be no blowout in this game. I would expect it to be a close game.

I already predicted 27-10, but that is because I am a damn homer. The over/under in this game is 55.5 I believe.......or that's what it was when I saw it last. I would bet that the under has a pretty good chance to hit in this game as both teams have good red zone defenses.

 

[wscdb]

I also see the under hitting. When you have two solid defenses, and two essentially one-dimensional offenses (Martinez won't be throwing for 300 and 5 every Saturday) points become a premium. As we all well know, Nebraska scores almost all of their points via the big play. Missouri doesn't allow a lot of big plays, and also takes care of the football, which could eliminate any defensive scoring opportunities for us. While we don't exactly take care of the football, we have limited our turnovers, and our turnovers are fumbles...which makes it very tough for an unnecessary defensive score. So as long as special teams holds up (question mark for both teams) I have a hard time believing BOTH teams will be able to score a touchdown a quarter. I personally hope for as low scoring game as possible, because with our running game, and that little #90 on our side, the lower scoring the game, the higher our chances of winning are! Besides, I'm a sucker for a hard-hitting defensive battle (sans suspensions, of course)