Middle Earth: Why wait for waivers?

[TKOSpikes]

To start things off, I'll quote Wil of White, who prepared a thought out of my mind onto paper...

As to the focus on mid-rounds idea - I think what we're all after is the FJAXes, the guys who have an incorrectly low ADP.

I'm developing a theory here, but maybe one way to go about it is to identify Unsubstantiated Hype, and take the other guy.

The Unsubstantiated Hype last year (easy to see in hindsght) was that Spiller would get a lot more touches, be just as productive in a lead role as he was in a change-of-pace role, and hold up physically in that role. So FJAX would have been a good grab. (I was right on Spiller but completely blind to FJAX, which was stupid.) This obviously won't work all the time (since sometimes the Unsubstantiated Hype had something to it after all, or the next guy is also worthless) but it might be a better bet than others.

Oter unsubstantiated hype from last year was that Lamar Miller would be a bell cow, Montee would get a lot of work, and Daryl Richardson would be the lead back in St. Louis.

Looking around now, I see unsubstantiated hype around these top-20-ADP RBs:

• Le'Veon Bell (crummy YPC as the lead back and they brought over Blount)
• Gio (I like him, but expectations that they'll use him differently than last year is all speculation; they kept LawFirm)
• Stacy (I think his success last year was mostly circumstantial)
• Jennings (this is the same guy who was a turd in Jacksonville when they needed him)
• Gerhart (backup YPC is a poor indicator of success as a starter, especially when you go to another team)
• Sankey (hasn't played in the NFL - the perceived value here is based a lot on opportunity; and he was drafted late enough that there's no special pressure to play him if someone else is doing well)

So some guys I would look to be next year's FJAXes would be (in no particular order) Blount, DWilson (Coughlin is allergic to rookies), Todman or Denard - probably Todman because Denard isn't a true RB, Greene, and Tre Mason. I wouldn't bite on LawFirm because even if Gio is held to last year's numbers there isn't enough for LawFirm to thrive.

Looks like all those guys could be had in the late rounds (except Wilson may rise). The guy everybody in the universe seems to be missing here (including me until a few minutes ago) is Greene. (He went in the 11th round of the Coma league.) Greene will probably have GL duty anyway, and McCluster is not an every-down back. If Sankey has any trouble adjusting to the NFL, Greene will be a solid RB2 for very cheap.

Then there's the Unsubstantiated Negative Hype, that's pushing guys down... but that's another post.

so here's the other post/thread.. (and it keeps Joe's random thread, well, random..

My first shout out will go to Ahmad Bradshaw (recently cleared for camp), and Vick Ballard. I really don't believe I let them slide in the Coma, as both could easily end up being the guy in Indy. Everyone knows what we all say about what Peyton Manning does to running backs...well laugh if you will, but I believe Luck is the other guy who will follow that philosophy, (all due respect to Brady/Rodgers/Brees who just seem different).

I'm a Trent Richardson "supporter", as to say I think he will be fine, but there is no basis to that and I have nothing to back it up. His two "back ups" could bust that up quickly. A good camp/preseason battle to watch, as I'm not sure which way I'd lean between AB and VB... likely Bradshaw, but that might be a pass protection thing which can be both good and bad for fantasy.


What say you about the Colts situation, and who's your camp battle to watch?

 

[averagejoe]

What say you about the Colts situation, and who's your camp battle to watch?

I'm leery of TRich, but if he's around in the 6th (which is his current ADP) I could take a shot at him.

As for my camp battle, there are several... But I think one camp battle that could change the whole complexion of the team is Geno/Vick on he Jets. If Vick wins the starting job, everyone gets a bump, especially Decker.


BTW Wil, this is the most logical thing you've said all week. You had me worried, buddy.

 

[wilwhite]

Thanks for the bump to another thread, TKO.

While I think TRich is a scrub, he's not actually an incompetent football player, and the Colts can win with him. Bradshaw is clearly a better player, but he can pop another rivet any moment and be gone again. If I'm the Colts I figure we're making the playoffs regardless, so I play TRich and Ballard mostly, and play Bradshaw enough to keep him warm and avoid injury for when I really need him.

Of course I'm not the Colts and they may give him 20 touches a game. I'm afraid to draft him because I may sit him when he does get those touches and start him when he doesn't.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I'm leery of TRich, but if he's around in the 6th (which is his current ADP) I could take a shot at him.

I did take him in the suicide there, but I can't see me doing the same in the MBBRL... or my money league.

 

[TREFF]

I'm leery of TRich, but if he's around in the 6th (which is his current ADP) I could take a shot at him.

As for my camp battle, there are several... But I think one camp battle that could change the whole complexion of the team is Geno/Vick on he Jets. If Vick wins the starting job, everyone gets a bump, especially Decker.


BTW Wil, this is the most logical thing you've said all week. You had me worried, buddy.

sounded perfectly fine to me. . Especially the whole Ball ranked #1 stuff. I couldn't follow all the stuff in ADP thread though. Sounded to me like everyone was arguing over how to look at the something the exact same way, yet say it differently, but that could just be me.

 

[wilwhite]

Sounded to me like everyone was arguing over how to look at the something the exact same way, yet say it differently, but that could just be me.

You're probably right. I was just kinda stunned at how bad a predictor ADP actually was.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

other camp battles that are fantasy relevant that I'm keeping an eye on:

NYG RB situation is very much up in the air, even if Jennings comes in as the de facto RB1. Wilson injury recovery, Williams the newly acquired rookie..... I just think there's a reason Jennings couldn't stick around in either JAX or OAK, when both teams could use as much useful depth on offense as possible.

CLE RBs - Tate vs West. West will get some touches, but if he outplays Tate in camp and preseason, he may earn an even split.

JAX WRs - Ace Sanders is getting suspended for PEDs, Blackmon pulls down another TD...just joking, he actually pulled down yet another drug charge, Shorts coming off an injury riddled season, and then the rookies Lee and Robinson. Henne has a strong arm, and even in crap seasons, has shown that he is capable of producing some decent low end fantasy production at WR.

We can stay in Indy if you like as well, cause I still don't have a freakin clue as to how their WRs are going to shuffle out. Where does Nick fit in with Wayne/Hilton + their rookie/2nd yr guys already on the roster?

GB TE battle - a few names have gone into the hat, but come Sunday game day, Rodgers will most likely only be pulling one of those names out. Some think it will be his own name (Richard Rodgers), but nothing is locked in as of yet.

 

[averagejoe]

Since we were discussing TRich above, I moved this from another thread:

Trent Richardson reported as playing with a separated AC joint and chipped collarbone last season

I was willing to take on chance on him thinking that he had just a down year. But if he had joint and collarbone chip problems, to go along with his cracked ribs in his rookie season, he maybe too much of an injury risk to draft. Back to back seasons with cracked bones can't be a good way to start your career.

And how did he pass the physical after the trade?

 

[TREFF]

Since we were discussing TRich above, I moved this from another thread:



I was willing to take on chance on him thinking that he had just a down year. But if he had joint and collarbone chip problems, to go along with his cracked ribs in his rookie season, he maybe too much of an injury risk to draft. Back to back seasons with cracked bones can't be a good way to start your career.

And how did he pass the physical after the trade?

Sounds like Trich needs to add a little moojuice to his diet

 

[averagejoe]

Another camp battle that I'm mildly watching is the backup QB in Chicago. Jordan Palmer enters as the #2, but there are rumblings that Jimmy Clausen is going to be the guy.

Never thought I'd watch a backup QB battle. But now that I'm in a 2-QB league, I may need a guy like McCown who came in when Cutler went down. This year, it may be Clausen/Palmer.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Not sure of the nature of the injury, but Kendall Hunter hurt his leg (I think). Carlos Hyde gets a bump and Lattimore suddenly looks a little more interesting....or shall I say overlooked?

 

[TREFF]

Not sure of the nature of the injury, but Kendall Hunter hurt his leg (I think). Carlos Hyde gets a bump and Lattimore suddenly looks a little more interesting....or shall I say overlooked?

I dunno everything I've heard on Lattimore coming out is that he's a shell of the guy he was in college. . I'd be very leary of putting to much stock into him.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Yeah, Lattimore is a long shot, but he's there. LaMichael James is a forgotten man too... I liked the little guy last year, but Harbaugh didn't.

And it's a torn ACL for Hunter, so Hyde could be a huge late pick... and of course, everyone is expecting Gore to fall off ...again, but maybe he's got another 1200-10 in him?

 

[leftypower]

Yeah, Lattimore is a long shot, but he's there. LaMichael James is a forgotten man too... I liked the little guy last year, but Harbaugh didn't.

And it's a torn ACL for Hunter, so Hyde could be a huge late pick... and of course, everyone is expecting Gore to fall off ...again, but maybe he's got another 1200-10 in him?

For the sake of my suicide squad - I hope he does !

 

[TREFF]

Seems like Gore is expected to fall off the map every year. At least he's giving us the gradual decent. Still a valuable guy to have.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Who is this Mr. White anyway? No, not our Wil of White!

.... James White, Running Back, New England Patriots.

Is this hype gonna continue throughout the preseason? Will nobody believe, until boom... 20 carries in week 1, 115 yards and a TD! From the sounds of it, he's a cross between Ridley and Vereen. July/August hype withstanding, does this guy cause a love (hate) triangle in Foxboro?

 

[Barilko]

Who is this Mr. White anyway? No, not our Wil of White!

.... James White, Running Back, New England Patriots.

Is this hype gonna continue throughout the preseason? Will nobody believe, until boom... 20 carries in week 1, 115 yards and a TD! From the sounds of it, he's a cross between Ridley and Vereen. July/August hype withstanding, does this guy cause a love (hate) triangle in Foxboro?

im looking at White in my keeper league because when he does what you see..ill r*pe the mad Pat owner..who will be dying to have him

 

[TKOSpikes]

Just watched Pats/Eagles last night. White didn't pass the eye test for me. He doesn't look 5'10, 205 to me. He looks small, plays small. I don't see it happening this year.

Ridley still needs to hold onto the ball!!!!

Vereen looking better and better.

 

[Barilko]

Who is this Mr. White anyway? No, not our Wil of White!

.... James White, Running Back, New England Patriots.

Is this hype gonna continue throughout the preseason? Will nobody believe, until boom... 20 carries in week 1, 115 yards and a TD! From the sounds of it, he's a cross between Ridley and Vereen. July/August hype withstanding, does this guy cause a love (hate) triangle in Foxboro?

and Ridley is still a fumblin away his future

im targeting White in my keeper league...