Mid-Majors With a Realistic Shot at the 4 Team Play-off for 2014

[olympicoscar]

Eliminated After Week One

Independent: Navy
AAC: UCF, Houston
CUSA: Rice, North Texas
MAC: Bowling Green, Kent St
MWC: Fresno St, Utah St, Boise St

Remaining and/or Added

Independents

BYU (1-0) - @ Texas, Virginia, @ California

American Athletic (ACC)

East Carolina (1-0) - @ South Carolina, @ Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Cincinnati (0-0) - @ Ohio St, @ Miami
Tulsa (1-0) - Oklahoma
Temple (1-0) - @ Vanderbilt (W), @ Penn St
Memphis (1-0) - @ UCLA, @ Ole Miss
South Florida (1-0) - Maryland, NC State, @ Wisconsin

Conference USA (CUSA)

Marshall (1-0) - Play No Majors
Western Kentucky (1-0) - @ Illinois
Middle Tennessee (1-0) - @ Minnesota
Old Dominion (1-0) - @ N.C. State
UAB (1-0) - @ Mississippi St, @ Arkansas
UTSA (1-0) - Arizona, @ Oklahoma St
UTEP (1-0) - Texas Tech, @ Kansas State

Mid-American (MAC)

Ohio (1-0) - @ Kentucky
Akron (1-0) - @ Penn St, @ Pittsburgh
Central Mich (1-0) - @ Purdue, Syracuse, @ Kansas
Northern Illinois (1-0) - @ Northwestern, @ Arkansas
Ball St (1-0) - @ Iowa
Buffalo (1-0) - Baylor
Eastern Mich (1-0) - @ Florida, @ Michigan St
Toledo (1-0) - Missouri, @ Iowa St

Mountain West (MWC)

San Jose St (1-0) - @ Auburn, @ Minnesota
Nevada (1-0) - Washington St, @ Arizona
San Diego St (1-0) - @ North Carolina, @ Oregon St
Colorado St (1-0) - Colorado (W), @ Boston College
Air Force (1-0) - Play No Majors
Wyoming (1-0) - @ Oregon, @ Michigan St

Sun Belt

South Alabama (0-0) - Mississippi St, @ South Carolina
Idaho (0-0) - @ Florida (Postponed)
Georgia St (1-0) - @ Washington, @ Clemson
Louisiana Monroe (1-0) - Wake Forest (W), @ LSU, @ Texas A&M
Louisiana-Lafayette (1-0) - @ Ole Miss
Arkansas St (1-0) - @ Tennessee, @ Miami

New Mexico St (1-0) - @ LSU
Texas St (1-0) - @ Illinois[/QUOTE]

I assume you are talking about the G-5 spot in one of the 6 major bowls and not the playoffs. Playoffs not going to happen.

 

[olympicoscar]

Hahahahahaha! Good one.

Also, to add to this thread. I'm pretty sure Cincinnati was picked to win the AAC by the conference coaches. So, if they go undefeated....maybe.

If Cincinnati goes undefeated, there could only be 3 teams undefeated or with 1 loss for them to make it. Even so they still might not.

 

[olympicoscar]

The committee is the same thing as the BCS. They are people and people voted on the polls that were used to select teams to the BCS. Everyone always has a set of rules that look honorable and noble.

Very few actually follow them.

 

[taka85]

That is totally false. The committee doesn't care at all about tv ratings or money. Those two things will have ZERO effect on there rankings.

As an example they have already said the #1 team in the rankings WILL get preference in where they are sent in the playoffs.

Lets say for example that OU is #1, FSU is 2, Bama is #3, and Oregon is #4. OU will play Oregon in the Sugar Bowl semi-final, and FSU will play Bama in the Rose Bowl semi-final. Now obviously that makes no sense at all if money is taken into consideration as you would would much rather have OU, and Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and FSU, and Bama in the Sugar Bowl, but the committee has been very firm on rewarding the #1 seed with a closer venue in the semifinals.

So the committee is indeed all about fairness, and could care less about money or ratings. This committee will be totally, and completely fair.

how do you know? in terms of selecting the two best teams, the BCS did an almost flawless job during its run. the fact that the committee has already said that they will take into account conference champions (even if they don't appear to be as good as the 2nd or 3rd best team from another conference) tells me that we aren't really getting a good system. i want to see the 4 best teams play in a playoff. if 3 of those teams are from the pac-12, or big 12, or sec, then so be it. it is absurd that the path to a national championship is so much tougher for teams in a hard conference with a tough schedule than those with easier schedules.

just think about how close we were to being subjected to ohio state vs. michigan back in 2006. or seeing ohio state reach a national title game last season.

best. teams. only.

 

[HizzleRocker]

The 2 teams most deserving at this point, if undefeated would be:

1) BYU - ( @ Texas; Houston; Virginia; @ UCF; @ Boise St; @ Cal); and
2) Tulsa - ( Oklahoma; @ Colorado St; SMU; @ Houston; @ UCF; ECU)

 

[dennis580]

The committee is the same thing as the BCS. They are people and people voted on the polls that were used to select teams to the BCS. Everyone always has a set of rules that look honorable and noble.

Very few actually follow them.

Actually that is totally false. The committing will be using lots of analytics. This will be a very data driven process, and the committing will be locking themselves in a room up to 24 hours to go over everything with a fine tooth comb. There will be no real bias for or against any conference or team.

just think about how close we were to being subjected to ohio state vs. michigan back in 2006. or seeing ohio state reach a national title game last season.

best. teams. only.

Actually at the time the vast, vast majority of people thought Michigan was the 2nd best team, and did not think that Florida deserved to be in the NC game, and if Ohio St had went undefeated last year they certainly would have deserved to be in the NC game especially over a fluky Auburn team that should have had a 2nd loss against Georgia.

Anyway as far conference champions vs non conference champions. The non-conference champion will still get in if they are clearly superior to the conference champion, but if it is moderately close the conference champion will get the benefit of the doubt.

 

[olympicoscar]

Actually that is totally false. The committing will be using lots of analytics. This will be a very data driven process, and the committing will be locking themselves in a room up to 24 hours to go over everything with a fine tooth comb. There will be no real bias for or against any conference or team.



Actually at the time the vast, vast majority of people thought Michigan was the 2nd best team, and did not think that Florida deserved to be in the NC game, and if Ohio St had went undefeated last year they certainly would have deserved to be in the NC game especially over a fluky Auburn team that should have had a 2nd loss against Georgia.

Anyway as far conference champions vs non conference champions. The non-conference champion will still get in if they are clearly superior to the conference champion, but if it is moderately close the conference champion will get the benefit of the doubt.

They can analyze all they want. Humans are still humans and they know the public wants to see certain teams. Don't look for Marshall, Cincinnati, Tulsa, or East Carolina to make the final 4. That's all I'm saying.

 

[GoBlueNavyNuke]

Also OP clearly stated Mid-Major will have to be undefeated.

Yes Oscar. We see how you work.

Kinda jumping midway here, but even undefeated I don't think a mid-major will get in. How many times did we see a mid-major go undefeated and get snubbed for the BCS title game, even when they were the only undefeated team?

It would honestly take them basically having nothing but top 15 for out of conference opponents and at least two of the now "Power 5" conferences cannibalizing themselves.

 

[dennis580]

Kinda jumping midway here, but even undefeated I don't think a mid-major will get in. How many times did we see a mid-major go undefeated and get snubbed for the BCS title game, even when they were the only undefeated team?

It would honestly take them basically having nothing but top 15 for out of conference opponents and at least two of the now "Power 5" conferences cannibalizing themselves.

Thats because there was only 2 spots there is now twice as many spots. If we had a 4 team playoff during the BCS era we would have saw several mid-majors get in the playoff.

 

[GoBlueNavyNuke]

Thats because there was only 2 spots there is now twice as many spots. If we had a 4 team playoff during the BCS era we would have saw several mid-majors get in the playoff.

Maybe, but given the results of most of teams during the BCS era, one would think that would weaken their case.

Sure you had Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. But in year before that Georgia humiliated Hawaii and the year after Florida humiliated Cincinnati.

Not saying it is impossible, but that is a steep mountain to climb.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Even the vast majority of "Power 5" conference teams have never played in a BCS game and will never have a shot at the playoff. What hope do any of the "Group of 5" schools have? Especially if teams move away from scheduling FCS/D-1-AA teams, there will be plenty more G5 losses at the hands of P5 schools during the season.

 

[olympicoscar]

I really can't see this happening at all this year. The American Conference is actually well balanced and it's very unlikely anyone will run the table. Marshall has the best chance of any G-5 school to run the table and they didn't look great last week.

Western Kentucky has only one P-5 game, this week at Illinois. If they win, they have a chance to run the table in Conference USA. Does anyone really see Western Kentucky in the 1st ever playoff?

What I do enjoy about this thread is how well it's analyzed about figuring out the 1 team that will make the 6 elite bowl games. Brigham Young wouldn't be a bad choice.

 

[belcherboy]

I'm sure it has already been said, but I don't think any of them have a "realistic" chance. Not this season at least. Just my two cents.

 

[Red_Alert]

Remaining

Independents

BYU (2-0) - @ Texas (W), Virginia (Sept 20th), @ California (Nov 29th)
Army (1-0) - @ Stanford (Sept 13th), @ Wake Forest (Sept 20th)

American Athletic (ACC)

Cincinnati (0-0) - @ Ohio St (Sept 27th), @ Miami, FL (Oct 11th)

Conference USA (CUSA)

Marshall (2-0) - Play No Majors

Mid-American (MAC)

Central Mich (2-0) - @ Purdue (W), Syracuse (Sept 13th), @ Kansas (Sept 20th)
Northern Illinois (2-0) - @ Northwestern (W), @ Arkansas (Sept 20th)

Mountain West (MWC)

Nevada (2-0) - Washington St (W), @ Arizona (Sept 13th)
Wyoming (2-0) - @ Oregon (Sept 13th), @ Michigan St. (Sept 27th)

Sun Belt

New Mexico St (2-0) - @ LSU (Sept 27th)
Louisiana Monroe (2-0) - Wake Forest (W), @ LSU (Sept 13th), @ Texas A&M (Nov 1st)
South Alabama (1-0) - Mississippi St (Sept 13th), @ South Carolina (Nov 22nd)
Texas St (1-0) - @ Illinois (Sept 20th)

 

[Ironbreaker]

Isn't Notre Dame technically a mid-major?

Seems the best bet to me.

 

[Red_Alert]

Isn't Notre Dame technically a mid-major?

Seems the best bet to me.

NO

 

[Red_Alert]

Notre Dame is P5+1

 

[Ironbreaker]

NO

lol...

I thought mid-major means not associated with the top conferences?

It's a made up term not recognized by the NCAA.

 

[Ironbreaker]

Notre Dame is P5+1

I guess so.

Don't know why we make all these exceptions for the domers though.

 

[Used 2 B Hu]

Monee now moving heavily to BYU after yesterday. I don't think Virginia or Cal-Berkeley have the guns to keep up with them. They could slip up against some other team on the schedule, though.

Texas might have been down an entire defensive line, but they're still Texas and they have a defensive guru at HC. Cougs brought some wood.