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With great help from the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott, rookie quarterbacks are 14-14 straight up and 16-12 against the spread as starters in the NFL this season. The Los Angeles Rams will take those odds as they give rookie Jared Goff his first NFL start Sunday against the surging Miami Dolphins at Memorial Coliseum.
Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 41 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.9-18.0 Rams (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Dolphins can cover the spread
The Dolphins just won a game on the West Coast, beating the Chargers in San Diego last week 31-24 as four-point underdogs. The team then stayed in Southern California this week, to avoid back-to-back cross-country flights.
Miami spotted the Chargers the first 10 points of the game, rallied to take a lead in the third quarter, then ultimately won the game when linebacker Kiko Alonso pulled off a 60-yard pick-six with one minute left to go. A few moments later, the Dolphins picked off San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers for the fourth time in the fourth quarter alone to secure the victory.
Miami outrushed the Chargers on the day 106-70 and won the turnover battle 4-1, as quarterback Ryan Tannehill extended his pickless streak to four games. The Dolphins have won and covered their last four games.
At 5-4 on the season, Miami trails 7-3 Denver by a game-and-a-half in the fight for the second AFC Wild Card spot.
Why the Rams can cover the spread
Los Angeles just snapped a four-game losing streak with a tough 9-6 win on the East Coast against the New York Jets in New Jersey. The Rams took an early 3-0 lead, trailed at the half 6-3 but won the second half two field goals to none, claiming their third road victory of the season and the cover as one-point favorites.
Los Angeles was outgained by New York, but only by a 296-280 margin, and it won time of possession by a 34-26 split.
That's also the second time this season the Rams defense has held an opponent without a touchdown. They've also held three other opponents to a single offensive touchdown. Los Angeles is 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in those five games.
At 4-5 overall Los Angeles only trails 5-3-1 Washington by a game-and-a-half for the second NFC Wild Card spot.
Smart pick
The Rams have actually outgained four of their last five opponents, while the Dolphins have only outgained two opponents all season. Los Angeles also holds the edge on defense. Starting a rookie at quarterback is a bit concerning, but even Jacoby Brissett won a game for New England earlier this year. The smart money here rides the Rams.
Betting trends
The Dolphins are 1-3 ATS in their last four games against the Rams.
The total has gone under in 16 of the Rams' last 21 games.
The Rams are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 11.
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Happy Goff day! got a pork shoulder and a pint of Root Beer in the slow cooker, an ice chest full of beer. Family is here and they are watching the Cardinals. Lets go Rams! I'm hiding out in my Rams Room......
