Marte V Grossman - FIGHT IT OUT!

[Illinest]

Tale of the tape.

Marte - 22 years old in AA. CF, Rated best Outfield arm by BA in 2011.
457 AB, 74 Runs, 149 Hits, 33 doubles, 6 triples, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 86 SO, 17 BB, 20 SB (out of 32 attempts) .326/.361/.490/.851

Grossman - 21 years old in advanced A. RF.
435 AB, 110 Runs, 127 Hits, 27 doubles, 2 triples, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 98 SO, 99 BB, 24 SB (out of 33 attempts) .292/.424/.432/.856


Extra information. Both players have seen higher isolated power numbers this year, but Marte has had a bigger increase overall. Grossman actually just hit his 11th homerun and drew another walk making him the first player to walk 100 times and score 100 runs in the Florida State League since Nick Swisher did it. Marte has shown an impressive (and so far unblemished) ability to hit for average. Grossman has been ridiculously good at getting on base.
I don't know if any meaningful conclusions can be drawn from the fact that Marte's BABIP has been consistently greater than .387 throughout his minor league career. That seems awful high to me. It makes me think that he's either really really good at ripping line drives into the gap or else he's beating out a lot of infield singles.

Marte edges Grossman out by a hair, but it's really close in my opinion. Marte does seem to be a better defender and the fact that he's performing in AA already swings it.
But on the other hand I've got a lot of respect for a guy who gets on base more than 40% of the time.

 

[element1286]

I would go with Marte; performing at a higher level, CF who is a great defender. High BABIP is common for guys in the minors, especially ones that are fast; consistently high BABIP is a skill anyway. He is also a surfire major league player in some capacity, even if he ends up a Carlos Gomez type, he is isn't going to bust entirely.

Both have a red flag in their approach; Marte too aggressive, Grossman too passive. I am interested to see if Grossman's passive approach translates to AA, since A+ to AA is the biggest step in development. It would be amazing if Grossman actually did turn into anything resembling Nick Swisher.

 

[magnumo]

I'm also in the Marte camp, for the same reasons posted by element.

However, I'm not as high on Marte as element has described in his previous post. That is, I'm not ready to call him a sure-fire major leaguer..... I've seen too many "sure-fire" guys go bust, and I've never seen him play. On the other hand, he's playing well at AA, and that's big, in my opinion. My critieria for prospects have always been heavily biased toward performance and closeness to the major leagues..... over potential.

I've never been impressed by Grossman. I'm surprised that he's doing as well as he is at Bradenton, and I'll be surprised if he ever does anything significant at the major league level. (I HOPE that he continues to surprise.) Consequently, Grossman did not make my latest top 10 Pirate prospect list. This might seem kinda radical, but I'm not sure he makes my top 20.

 

[thecrow124]

At this point it is too close to call. Both need to hit for more power to be expected to make an impact at the major league level. Grossman doesn't have the overall speed to stay at CF, so a move to left is likely at some point. Marte has to cut down on his K's or he will be exploited next year when he hits the AAA/AAAA pitching. I also see a move to RF for Marte, so the power has to go up at the same time the K's go down, and that is just a lot to ask.
However, both are still young for the level they are playing, so anything is possible.

 

[Illinest]

I'll add a few more points in Grossman's favor that I forgot to mention.
He was drafted in the sixth round but some sources had him rated a possible first round talent. The Pirates gave him a 1 million dollar signing bonus. This leads me to my first point. He is not one of those 'out of nowhere' prospects.

The next is that he is a good defender if he goes to the corner. He's a converted CF, not just a hitting prospect who got put in the outfield.

The last is the unusual transition to switch-hitter. He started as a junior in high school. The thing that's strange is that even though he's a left-handed thrower he's been a right handed hitter until recently.
Go into his minor league splits and you can see how dramatic the difference in results has been. Last two years averaged about .050 points higher BA and about .080 points higher slugging when hitting from his natural side. Unfortunately for Robbie Grossman his weak side is the side that he's been using most often since the majority of pitchers are RH.
This season has been different. Grossman is still doing an excellent job from the right, but he's starting to hit from the left now too and actually seems to have more power from the left.

If it was any other player I'd be more skeptical, but there's something about the Grossman story that speaks to me. I'm imagining that he's a guy who is in the midst of rapid growth in hitting from the left side. I mean - he might still end up as a tweener in the end, but if he continues to develop as a left-handed hitter then the sky is the limit.

 

[element1286]

I also see a move to RF for Marte, so the power has to go up at the same time the K's go down, and that is just a lot to ask.

He might have to move position because of Cutch, but that doesn't make him any less of a prospect because he can certainly play CF.

 

[Illinest]

Yeah I don't see why you'd dock Marte points just because McC is already in the system. Marte is by all accounts a good CF.

Of course I wasn't counting on Alex Presley showing as well as he has (so far) but all of a sudden I'm not too bothered by the outfield situation. Between McC - who hits like a corner outfielder - and the four other options (Presley, Tabata, Marte, Grossman) it doesn't seem like too much of a stretch to think that one of them might develop some power. All five of them seem like viable options to lead off, so that's a positive, and all five are either CF or converted CF so the outfield defense should be excellent.

And then there's Bell.

 

[thecrow124]

He might have to move position because of Cutch, but that doesn't make him any less of a prospect because he can certainly play CF.

This is just my opinion, but yes it does.

 

[Illinest]

There's a long shot that Lambo could beat Marte to the majors too. I almost forgot about him. It only happens if he figures out how to make consistent contact but he does actually seem to have a fair understanding of the strikezone and he's got some power in his swing as well.
His performance in AAA was terrible but the last month and a half in AA (at age 23) shows that there might be something there. I guess he could be like Bowker, Moss or Jones. Even if he becomes the next Garret Jones - well - that's something at least.
But there's still an outside shot that he could become something more. The body is there - he just needs to figure out how to get the bat to the ball.

 

[element1286]

Lambo is a long shot at this point, Bowker, Moss, and Jones hit at AAA.

 

[Illinest]

Grossman keeps impressing.
His OPS for the last three months:
June - .995
July - .917
August - .1057

And the August OPS doesn't include the results of todays' doubleheader in which he was 6 out of 8 with a homerun and 2 doubles.
Grossman is killing the ball.

 

[element1286]

Grossman keeps impressing.
His OPS for the last three months:
June - .995
July - .917
August - .1057

And the August OPS doesn't include the results of todays' doubleheader in which he was 6 out of 8 with a homerun and 2 doubles.
Grossman is killing the ball.

All the more impressive he is doing it one of the best pitchers leagues, if not the best, in the minors. I really want to see what he can do at AA.

He scored 7 runs yesterday, unreal!

 

[thedddd]

I would go with Marte; performing at a higher level, CF who is a great defender. High BABIP is common for guys in the minors, especially ones that are fast; consistently high BABIP is a skill anyway. He is also a surfire major league player in some capacity, even if he ends up a Carlos Gomez type, he is isn't going to bust entirely.

Both have a red flag in their approach; Marte too aggressive, Grossman too passive. I am interested to see if Grossman's passive approach translates to AA, since A+ to AA is the biggest step in development. It would be amazing if Grossman actually did turn into anything resembling Nick Swisher.

Remember the discussion on ESPN about how good a signing he would have been in Pittsburgh?

Oh well sorry to get off topic. Honestly at this point I am impressed with both at the plate in different ways. Grossman has 100 walks and a .428 OBP which is amazing even at that level. The part that scares me with Marte at the plate is he doesn't walk enough but his power numbers have surged recently. It will be interesting to see him next year and his power numbers.

Marte's edge is defense but if Grossman can keep up the ungodly ability to get on base he MIGHT be better in the long run.

 

[element1286]

Remember the discussion on ESPN about how good a signing he would have been in Pittsburgh?

I certainly do, but I think it would have been a potential trade, and not a free agent acquisition. Either way, the Yanks made out on that one big time. Right now would be the perfect time to pull of one of those trades, bringing in a veteran (who is still relatively young) with a track record who has fallen out of favor, or has a big contract that needs to be moved. I'm sure there is someone like that out there.

 

[thedddd]

That's right it was a trade! Looking back the Yankees didn't give up much to get him. It was a good off season move for the Yankees.

That will be a good topic to revisit after the season is over to see the rumors with players. Can't really look at who is on waivers because it seems every team out of it puts all there players on waivers (slight exaggeration but it seems that way).

Hence this list of who cleared: Players Who Cleared Waivers: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com. Outside the top one none are worth it and if the Pirates made a play at that big contract what would become of Alvarez.

 

[Illinest]

Grossman's season is basically done. .869 in Advanced A. When Marte was the same age and with the same team he put up an .847

Now I did see an article that related park factors and it suggested that Grossman is in a home park that is very beneficial for lefties. (He's a switch hitter remember)
And his splits bear this out. He has a much higher home OPS. On the other hand Altoona is a park that is hard on lefties. I wouldn't be concerned if there's some regression next year - in fact I think we should expect it.

Marte on the other hand has already gone through his AA season and has been very impressive. Especially in the second half. .967 post ASB.
He still needs to muscle up a bit yet but 2011 had many encouraging signs. I can't see any reason why he wouldn't start 2012 with Indianapolis and he's a prime candidate for midseason call-up next year.

Bonus - Tony Sanchez
Sanchez sucked pretty bad this year but there is some reason to think that this might be an adjustment issue or a case of bad luck. Maybe both.
His SO rate is not too bad and his Walk rate is pretty good. He's clearly putting the ball in play and managing the strikezone. So why isn't he hitting better? It's got to be weak contact. My guess is that he's a been a little bit too aggressive about defending the plate. Of course this is just an armchair analysis so you shouldn't quote me.
The encouraging thing I've heard about Sanchez is that his success rate on stolen bases isn't as bad as it looks. He is only throwing out 22% of SB attempts against which is poor, but the Pirates organization has an average of 22% so you can kind of normalize all catchers against all pitchers at all levels of the organization and arrive at the conclusion that it is at least not a liability. Comforting considering some of the alarm that had been raised about the issue. His pop time - according to Sanchez himself - is 1.88 on average which is actually not bad at all. It's generally accepted that a pop time of 2.0 or less is ML quality. Pop time is the time it takes from the time the ball hits the catchers mitt until the time it reaches second base.

 

[element1286]

Grossman's season is basically done. .869 in Advanced A. When Marte was the same age and with the same team he put up an .847

Now I did see an article that related park factors and it suggested that Grossman is in a home park that is very beneficial for lefties. (He's a switch hitter remember)
And his splits bear this out. He has a much higher home OPS. On the other hand Altoona is a park that is hard on lefties. I wouldn't be concerned if there's some regression next year - in fact I think we should expect it.

Marte on the other hand has already gone through his AA season and has been very impressive. Especially in the second half. .967 post ASB.
He still needs to muscle up a bit yet but 2011 had many encouraging signs. I can't see any reason why he wouldn't start 2012 with Indianapolis and he's a prime candidate for midseason call-up next year.

Bonus - Tony Sanchez
Sanchez sucked pretty bad this year but there is some reason to think that this might be an adjustment issue or a case of bad luck. Maybe both.
His SO rate is not too bad and his Walk rate is pretty good. He's clearly putting the ball in play and managing the strikezone. So why isn't he hitting better? It's got to be weak contact. My guess is that he's a been a little bit too aggressive about defending the plate. Of course this is just an armchair analysis so you shouldn't quote me.
The encouraging thing I've heard about Sanchez is that his success rate on stolen bases isn't as bad as it looks. He is only throwing out 22% of SB attempts against which is poor, but the Pirates organization has an average of 22% so you can kind of normalize all catchers against all pitchers at all levels of the organization and arrive at the conclusion that it is at least not a liability. Comforting considering some of the alarm that had been raised about the issue. His pop time - according to Sanchez himself - is 1.88 on average which is actually not bad at all. It's generally accepted that a pop time of 2.0 or less is ML quality. Pop time is the time it takes from the time the ball hits the catchers mitt until the time it reaches second base.

Bradenton is a hitters park, but the Florida State League is a pitcher's league. Grossman's numbers are probably close to what one should expect in a neutral league setting.

It would be nice to see Marte learn some plate discipline, but the fact he hit AA pitching so well means he probably won't have a ton of trouble with AAA pitching. At the end of next year I see him putting up similar numbers across the board at AAA, and still having no idea if his approach will translate to the majors.

Lost year for Sanchez, there were extenuating circumstances, and no red flags with lack of contact, or free swinging. No reason he can't rebound at AAA. Good info on the pop time.

 

[Illinest]

In more pleasant news - Grossman is tearing it up.
He's got 4 HRs and an OPS north of 1.090 through 59 plate appearances.
That's only good for 10th in the league and the AFL is known for having inflated hitting stats but Grossman has significantly more PA than anyone ahead of him on the list.

And there's more promising news that I am about to share.
At fangraphs there's an attempt to quantify performances given small sample sizes. It's called SCOUT.
Offseason Notes for October 17th | FanGraphs Baseball

According to SCOUT Robbie Grossman is the top hitting position player in the AFL so far this year, and it's not even close. Follow the link and check the values. He's at .34 and the second place guy is .21

This still suffers from small sample size problems but the values that go into SCOUT are known to be relatively more reliable at smaller sample sizes so you can trust it a little more than a traditional counting stat like HR or RBI or even OPS.

 

[Darkstone42]

In more pleasant news - Grossman is tearing it up.
He's got 4 HRs and an OPS north of 1.090 through 59 plate appearances.
That's only good for 10th in the league and the AFL is known for having inflated hitting stats but Grossman has significantly more PA than anyone ahead of him on the list.

And there's more promising news that I am about to share.
At fangraphs there's an attempt to quantify performances given small sample sizes. It's called SCOUT.
Offseason Notes for October 17th | FanGraphs Baseball

According to SCOUT Robbie Grossman is the top hitting position player in the AFL so far this year, and it's not even close. Follow the link and check the values. He's at .34 and the second place guy is .21

This still suffers from small sample size problems but the values that go into SCOUT are known to be relatively more reliable at smaller sample sizes so you can trust it a little more than a traditional counting stat like HR or RBI or even OPS.

That's awesome. I've been a fan of the pick since we drafted him, and if he can find that happy medium between being too patient, where he is right now, and adding some aggressiveness to his approach, he could be a pretty solid everyday Major Leaguer.

 

[element1286]

Robbie Grossman: A Hidden Gem in Pittsburgh's Future? - Minor League Ball

Favorite stat for Grossman (below), it isn't easy to cut down on k's, raise the walks, and increase power at the same time. Still doesn't have star upside, but no reason he can't be Nick Swisher.

2009- 164 K/ 75 BB/ 28 XBH

2010- 118 K/ 66 BB/ 36 XBH

2011- 111 K/ 104 BB/ 49 XBH