Looking for feedback

[magnumo]

Do you guys want to do a Pirates W-L Predictions thread again for the 2013 season?

In the past, I've started the contest around the beginning of Spring Training. Pirates' pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 11, with the full squad following on Feb. 14..... so we're getting close. Last year's contest was won by smokeyburgess at 79-83.

In addition to a yes or no, any comments or suggestions intended to improve the contest are also welcome.

Last year's participants may recall that we adopted a "new" rule, which gave "squatter's rights" to the first poster to predict a specific won-lost record. (See rule 2 below.) This seemed to work out fine, due to the smaller number of regulars on this board.

For reference, here is the complete set of rules we used last season:

1. Poster must predict an exact won-lost record for the Pirates' full regular season.

2. The first poster to predict a specific won-lost record will have "squatter's rights" to that prediction. That is, later predictions of the same W-L record will not be accepted.

3. Poster may change his/her prediction until the regular season begins, as long as the change does not violate rule 2. A prediction vacated by such change becomes available to other posters.

4. The contest will close to new entries when the regular season begins.

5. Since I can't guarantee that I will read every post between now and the beginning of the regular season, please post your prediction in a thread which has an appropriate title (such as this one).

6. If the Pirates do not play 162 games (e.g., due to un-made-up rain-outs) the contest will revert to games won as predicted by each participant.

7. I reserve the right to reject any prediction for any reason.

 

[stillmatic32]

It's fun. I can't think of anything to improve it, really. It's just fun to see where we all end up with our predictions, so I say go for it again this year.

 

[sychmd]

you're the best.
i think you do a great job.
i think the posters come up with reasonable predictions and rationale for their picks

i dont think the pirates - i will use that to mean the collective organization because i dont want to get started with a super bowl party on my doorstep - do their job in helping the pool be as successful as your efforts make it.

so the only alteration i would suggest is, if you have some pull, and can get their energetic participation, get the bucs into the pool.

 

[magnumo]

To stillmatic32 and sychmd: Thanks for answering and your "yes" votes.

To sychmd: Thanks for your comments. Unfortunately, I have no such pull.

To board participants at large: Really would like to get some more feedback. I'm kind of on-the-fence about putting in the time and energy it takes to do this thing right. Over at ESPN, we averaged 92 participants over the four seasons from 2006 through 2009. Last year, here at SportsHoopla, we had 20 participants, actually more than I expected..... and about the right number for our new rule #2. At any rate, if I can expect interest at that level, I'm ready to do it again. I'd appreciate a few more "yes" or "no" votes over the next week or so. Thanks much.

 

[element1286]

I vote yes, but I'm not sure I like the squatter's rights rule.

 

[thecrow124]

Every time I read rule #7 I think of "Monty Python and the Holy Grail." As with anything there are minor tweaks that could be made, but it is just for fun so IMO doesn't need to be very restrictive. I would say it is good as is, but I reserve the right to agree with any other changes that may be brought up.

 

[Darkstone42]

I like it. I want to do it again. And this year, I'll win.

 

[thedddd]

I am fine with it with the rules as they are.

 

[Illinest]

You can count on me to participate but I'm only lukewarm on the idea in the first place. Whatever participation I did last year is what I would do this year as well.

 

[TheBurgh88]

Heck yea I'll participate again with my usual pessimistic projection.

 

[magnumo]

To all respondents: Thanks, guys. That's enough positive energy. We'll do it again this year.

To element: Any expansion on that concern? Frankly, I was wary myself of the change last season, but it seemed to work OK. My only remaining concern is that it could limit participation. As I recall last year, I had to reject only 2 predictions. They were made late in Spring Training by two non-regulars. I invited them to revise their predictions to remaining openings only a win or two away from their original predictions, but neither came back or replied.

 

[element1286]

To all respondents: Thanks, guys. That's enough positive energy. We'll do it again this year.

To element: Any expansion on that concern? Frankly, I was wary myself of the change last season, but it seemed to work OK. My only remaining concern is that it could limit participation. As I recall last year, I had to reject only 2 predictions. They were made late in Spring Training by two non-regulars. I invited them to revise their predictions to remaining openings only a win or two away from their original predictions, but neither came back or replied.

I really don't mind either way, but I like the having everything done in the official thread.

 

[magnumo]

I really don't mind either way, but I like ... having everything done in the official thread.

OK..... and I agree with your thought.

As a result, I propose to change rule 5 from:

5. Since I can't guarantee that I will read every post between now and the beginning of the regular season, please post your prediction in a thread which has an appropriate title (such as this one).

to:

5. Predictions should be posted in this thread.

Any objections from anyone?

 

[Darkstone42]

OK..... and I agree with your thought.

As a result, I propose to change rule 5 from:

5. Since I can't guarantee that I will read every post between now and the beginning of the regular season, please post your prediction in a thread which has an appropriate title (such as this one).

to:

5. Predictions should be posted in this thread.

Any objections from anyone?

I fully support it. It will keep the board clear of any unnecessary threads. Whether you want to use this thread or start a "Predictions Here" thread, just let me know, and I'll sticky the thread so no one has trouble finding it, and then folks can track their progress throughout the year without having the search for the thread.

 

[Burgh Sports Rule]

I have not been a member of this board as long as some of you & I was not a member of the ESPN board at all. However, I always read the threads & posts of members.

I would like to give this a shot & play along too.

Burgh

 

[magnumo]

I fully support it. It will keep the board clear of any unnecessary threads. Whether you want to use this thread or start a "Predictions Here" thread, just let me know, and I'll sticky the thread so no one has trouble finding it, and then folks can track their progress throughout the year without having the search for the thread.

OK..... thanks much for that offer, Darkstone. As I recall, it worked very nicely last year. I'll start an "official" predictions thread in a few days, around the start of Spring Training. I'd like to allow a few more days for any additional comments or suggestions in this thread.

 

[magnumo]

I have not been a member of this board as long as some of you & I was not a member of the ESPN board at all. However, I always read the threads & posts of members.

I would like to give this a shot & play along too.

Burgh

You're certainly welcome to join the fun, Burgh Sports Rule. Look for the official predictions thread in a few days.

 

[steelparrot]

Its fun, I'm usually in the hunt till we fade late lol.


As for squatters rights, we could add a tie breaker, games back/runs scored/runs allowed/ or maybe maybe September wins? The tiebreaker would have to be unique for each win total.

 

[magnumo]

Its fun, I'm usually in the hunt till we fade late lol.


As for squatters rights, we could add a tie breaker, games back/runs scored/runs allowed/ or maybe maybe September wins? The tiebreaker would have to be unique for each win total.

Although I welcome additional input and comments from potential participants (see note at the bottom of this post), here are my current thoughts on squatter's rights and tiebreakers:

1. It seems premature to rescind the squatter's rights rule, since it worked well with the number of participants we had last year (total of 20). If we get enough additional participants this year to put pressure on the squatter's rights rule, perhaps we should relax it for 2014 and add some kind of tiebreaker. (Another way to do it would be to allow identical predictions, with the qualification that the FIRST poster to make the right prediction will win the prize, but will share "bragging rights" with others who made the right prediction.)

2. For the four years we had similar contests on the ESPN.com Pirates' board, we never needed a tie-breaker (even though I had some in mind). In two of those contests, we had no winner. In the other two, we had only one participant sitting on the winning record, even though we averaged 92 participants per season. (In all four seasons, a large majority of participants predicted that the Pirates would finish MUCH better than they did.)

3. Having unique tiebreakers for every won-lost record seems cumbersome..... both for me to come up with and keep track of that many tiebreakers, and for participants to worry about anything beyond a simple W-L prediction. The tiebreakers I had in my back pocket for previous contests involved predictions about the playoffs and World Series. That way, we didn't need to worry about tiebreakers until it appeared that we might need one, we didn't need unique tiebreakers for each finish, and only people who actually tied with the right W-L prediction would need to participate in the tiebreaker.

4. On the other hand, it would be easy to set up an up-front tiebreaker, involving the Pirates' run differential (runs scored minus runs against) for the season. For example, participants could be asked to predict the Pirates' run differential (along with W-L record) for the season, with the participant closest to the Pirates' actual run differential winning the tiebreaker. The probability of two participants predicting the same won-lost record AND the same run differential seems very small.

Note to all posters: Please feel free to post your thoughts and ideas about the squatter' rights rule (yes or no) and tiebreakers..... over the next few days..... so that we can firm up the rules before the contest begins. Thanks much.

 

[magnumo]

For interested posters, here is FAIR WARNING!

Look for a new thread, titled "Official 2013 Pirates' Won-Lost Predictions," to be initiated tomorrow morning (Monday, February 11).